Quote:
Originally Posted by Kings Ranger
I understand that the 'threat' of Iran is a distraction from problems at home, but would it prevent a war entirely?
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No.
War with Iran is inevitable. It isn't a question of "if" it's a question of when. The timing has to be right. Look at this map:
Those 5 countries make up Central Asia. They are the 5 Central Asian States.
Shortly after the demise of the Soviet Union, Blow Job Bill initiated a number of illegal undeclared wars in the 5 Central Asian States to overthrow the newly created governments and set up US puppet governments.
That did two things: first, it allowed the US to build and establish military and air bases in those countries in furtherance of "The Plan™;" and second, it facilitated negotiations with the UNOCAL Conglomerate, consisting then of UNOCAL, Chevron, Amoco and British Petroleum to purchase the rights to resources in the 5 Central Asian States.
The UNOCAL Conglomerate was successful in purchasing the rights to 75% of all the oil, natural gas, metal ores and strategic minerals in the 5 Central Asian States. That means the UNOCAL Conglomerate gets royalties from the sale of those resources.
Based on that, ENRON then began pumping money into oil and natural gas processing facilities in India. Those are not refineries, they are processing facilities, big difference. ENRON also began pumping money into a natural gas refinery that would specifically produce fertilizer for consumption in India and for export on the world market, plus natural gas to power electrical energy production plants in India (which ENRON was going to build).
Now, look at the map, and tell us how do you get those resources out of the 5 Central Asia States to India?
The first idea was to run feeder pipelines for natural gas and oil into Tajikistan, then through the mountains of Tajikistan into the mountains of Pakistan, through the mountains in India to plants on the Bay of Bengal, and then run oil to Mumbai (Bombay) on the Indian Ocean.
Lloyd's of London flatly refused to insure the project or the completed pipelines.
If Lloyd's of London refuses to insure it, that means no one else on Earth will.
Lloyd's expressed concerns over escalating costs to build the pipelines, and then the escalating costs to maintain the pipelines, and then security and environmental issues. If the pipleines were sabotaged, the ensuing environmental disaster would be of epic proportions economically.
That was the beginning of the end for ENRON. ENRON sunk money into those plants (counting their chickens before they were hatched), they weren't going to be operational when they were supposed to be, and ENRON is losing their shirts because they aren't getting revenues from those plants that are not operating, and so ENRON starts cooking their books to hide this from investors.
Option #2 is to run the pipelines through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then on into India and avoid the mountains.
The Taliban is keen on the idea, except the Taliban wants a Chinese-Brasilian Consortium to build the pipeline, the US wants Haliburton to build the pipeline and negotiations break down. Mullah Omar is brought to the US and wined and dined and even visits the White House (but doesn't talk to Blow Job Bill), but still the Taliban rejects US offers. BRIC shares profits 50-50 or 60-40, invests money in the countries it deals with, and takes a hands-off approach to a country's political, economic and social development. The US demands 92-8, then devalues its assets so it doesn't have to pay the measly 8%, and then interferes at every possible level in a country, and then worse than that, forces the country to get IMF loans to build the infrastructure so that the US can steal the profits, resources and wealth more efficiently.
Basically, the Tablian would be stupid to go with the US. The US tries one last time in July 2001, and those negotiations fail, and then there's 9-11 and the US invades and ousts the Taliban, sets up Karzai as puppet-dictator, and Karzai was a consultant for UNOCAL, so we all know what will happen next.
But it never happens. The US can't control Afghanistan any more than any of the dozens of others who tried and failed (the list of would-be conquerors who failed is long and distinguished). The US finally realizing it can't possibly win, and even a win will not allow it to ensure the pipelines will be not be continuously sabotaged, gives up.
Looking at the map, that leaves Option #3 Iran or Option #4 Russia.
Understand the issue here is end-point sale. In the interim, Chevron bought UNOCAL and Amoco and BP have merged, so it's just a consortium of Chevron and BP now, and but they only get royalties from the sale, and have no control over the currency in which those resources are sold on the world market.
Also during the interim, Tajikistan got tired of waiting and told the US to stuff it. They signed a contract with China to build what will be the world's longest natural gas pipeline.
That natural gas will not be sold in US Dollars, and that will harm you, which is the whole point of this exercise.
Run the oil and natural gas pipelines, and the rail-lines and highways to transport the metal ores and strategic minerals into Russia, and Russia controls the sale of those resources on the world market. Russia sells only in Euros and Rubles. Russia refuses to sell in US Dollars. They already played that game once and lost. They will not be so stupid as to do it twice.
That will harm your economy in the long term, because it would strengthen the Euro and Ruble and make the US Dollar weak. That means you pay more for everything you import. That means your disposable income decreases. That means more lay-offs and job losses in the future.
You can run the oil and natural gas pipelines, and the rail-lines and highways for the metal ores and strategic minerals through Iran, but then Iran controls the end-sale.
And Iran is setting up the Kish Island Exchange to sell commodities in Euros, Rubles and Yuan, and also US Dollars, but not exclusively in US Dollars like the other OPEC countries.
70,000 barrels of oil per day coming out of Turkmenistan sold in Euros or Rubles is not going to hurt you.
But 10 years from now, when it's 3 Million barrels per day, and then later when its 5 Million barrels per day, you
will feel the pain every second of every minute of every hour of every day
for the rest of your natural life.
And Uzbekistan will be pumping 7 Million to 9 Million barrels per day, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan each 3 Million to 5 Million barrels per day. You will feel it.
The Extravagant American Life-Style™ runs on light sweet (low sulfur) crude oil: without it, there is no Extravagant American Life-Style™. You can "
Drill, Baby, Drill!" and "
Frack, Baby, Frack!" to your heart's desire and the only thing that will happen is that absolutely nothing will happen very slowly.
Why? Because you have no light sweet (low sulfur) crude oil.
Don't blame me, blame the Dinosaurs for not crapping enough, or blame one of the gods or White Men or Jew Bankers or something. It's organic chemistry. That's just the way it goes.
When the Middle East runs out, you will be dependent on Central Asia in the exact same way you are dependent on the Middle East now and even more so since Central Asia has 5-7 times more oil than all of the Middle East (and eastern Russia has 2 as much as Central Asia), except by that time, the whole world will be demanding light sweet (low sulfur) crude oil.
And if you cannot control Central Asia, and you cannot control the end-sale and make absolutely certain it is sold in US Dollars, you will be worse off then than you are now.
And that's what this is all about.
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How shocked are you this Thread is still 'alive' and you are still interested in the subject line.....16 days after this Thread started? 
