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It is absolutely true that a limited resource such as oil will have its peak point, that is just simple logic. When that point is is up for debate (especially given unforeseen advances in technology). While I strongly support environmental awareness am very concerned about how quickly we are using our resources and strongly support measures to curtail such overuse, (hell, I don't even own a car and have spent less than $100 gas in the past three years), what I am completely mystified by is the almost gleelike zeal of some of the peak oil theorists, it is almost as if they are excited about the prospect. Folks, if peak oil is indeed imminent, then it won't be a return to some sort of agrarian utopia , it will result in wars, starvation, and chaos.
You are correct. I don't think a lot of people understand how crucial energy is to our economy and what provides that energy. As for alternatives and technological advances, the ethanol infrastructure has been 100 years in the making and it still not ready for high demand. Hydrogen fuel cells are still under development and would require yet another infrastructure for delivery. Cost is also a question for both ethanol and hydrogen fuel cells. There is solar and wind energy and I recently watched an intriguing program about earthships, but the use of both solar and wind are limited in scope.
Now we have some good debate going on this issue. Nice to see. I believe wholeheartedly that this is all to REAL. Many posters eluded to the fact that its not a matter of IF but WHEN...the true numbers of crude oil reserves is still unclear.
The Government, I believe, has a HUGE part in this process. We are in Iraq not to stomp out Al Quaida (sp) or terrorists to "free" our country...the real reason is to secure enough of the stake in oil to secure our economy (lobbyists) a little longer so that huge profits can be turned by the elite and powerful. Once this is done you may or may not begin to see alternative source of energy. And if not then we will have a mess on our hands at the colapse of the world's economic system...thus leading to kaos, lawlessness, governmental breakdown and anarchy. Hmmmm....maybe there is some truth to history repeating itself. Someone also mentioned getting your skills together with regards to the basic...growing a garden for food as a survival method may not be too far fetched.
Its a theory that has been around since the late 60s or so. As a theory, it lacks anything resembling certainty.
I tend to ignore it for the most part. Were extreme scarcity imminent, gas would be at $1000 per gallon. The intersection of Supply & Demand determines the optimal price of something. Explains why 1 of the only 100 Honus Wagner baseball cards just went for around $2 million. If the petrol industry thought such scarcity there, the price would astronomical and they would not be spending money to drill in other places.
If true and it could be for all we know, the diminishing output will become apparent over time. And that's the point where all these other energy sources and technologies will become cost effective. If there is a space of time between the two, well hell, if the Amish can live without it, so could I.
but the use of both solar and wind are limited in scope.
I was reading an article the other day about a wind/electric powered auto. The car would use a small wind turbine and with air that would be funneled through a chamber as the car moves to create energy to recharge the car as you go. Was pretty interesting as in theory the amount of energy that would constantly be available for recharge would allow for a decent amount of power well over 100hp and possibly as high as 175. Was just a theory/concept, but sounded doable and interesting.
I was reading an article the other day about a wind/electric powered auto. The car would use a small wind turbine and with air that would be funneled through a chamber as the car moves to create energy to recharge the car as you go. Was pretty interesting as in theory the amount of energy that would constantly be available for recharge would allow for a decent amount of power well over 100hp and possibly as high as 175. Was just a theory/concept, but sounded doable and interesting.
Do you have the link? I can add this to my current, slight mind you, obsession with earthships.
Folks, if peak oil is indeed imminent, then it won't be a return to some sort of agrarian utopia , it will result in wars, starvation, and chaos.
You don't recognize what an economist calls the substitution effect?
You must think that the energy system is going to wake up one day to discover that all the oil is gone. Not exactly. As the replacement cost of drilling for new oil fields increases (that would happen because each new oil field becomes progressively more difficult to FIND and EXPLOIT), the oil companies start to raise the price charged for current oil inventories. This forces some customers away from oil to an alternative. This action and reaction would continue and eventually push more and more customers of oil to other energy sources. Makers of machines that depend on the availability of oil/gasoline also begin to convert their designs to use other forms of energy. There will be MANY entrepreneurial opportunities. The government can establish penalties and subsidies to help smooth over the rough spots in this transition. There will be economic transformation, dislocation, some areas of "friction" where a given economic sector/industry has more than its share of difficulty (perhaps on technological grounds) in making the transition. Home heating would be a laggard because of the large number of sites needing a retrofit and the difficulty in doing so for older housing. (That might be a classic case where government would best offer incentives to move persons into new housing.) But no predetermined social and economic chaos.
Last edited by ParkTwain; 09-07-2007 at 02:13 PM..
You don't recognize what an economist calls the substitution effect?
You must think that the energy system is going to wake up one day to discover that all the oil is gone. Not exactly. As the replacement cost of drilling for new oil fields increases, the oil companies start to raise the price charged for current oil inventories. This forces some customers away from oil to an alternative. This action and reaction would continue and eventually push more and more customers of oil to other energy sources. Makers of machines that depend on the availability of oil/gasoline also begin to convert their designs to use other forms of energy. There will be MANY entrepreneurial opportunities. The government can establish penalties and subsidies to help smooth over the rough spots in this transition. There will be economic transformation, dislocation, some areas of "friction" where that economic sector/industry has more than its share of difficulty (perhaps on technological grounds) in making the transition. But no predetermined social and economic chaos.
Again, ParkTwain, I must bow to your perceptiveness. There is a whole new generation of technological entreperneurs working right now on alternative sources of energy.
Just as my children laugh at me when I tell them you used to have to ask a woman you didn't know to make telephone connections for you with your neighbor, so will their children laugh at the notion of having to depend on controlled detonations of toxic fuels to power metallic vehicles on two-dimensional roads made of pulverized glass.
and then followed a link there, which ended up with me going through several articles and several links before I arrived at the 100hp+ concept wind powered car article. If I remember what site it was I'll post it.
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