an
Quote:
Originally Posted by steel7
Gas jumped 6 cents today to $3.95.9. It just does not have to be that high.
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Uh, yes, it does. You ended the subsidies on ethanol. Gasoline prices rise because gasoline has ethanol.
Jumping...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cletus Awreetus-Awrightus
no, i don't. if the supply is dwindling, you need to find an alternative source of energy.
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They don't need an alternative source of energy; they need an alternative fuel, but that just ain't going to happen.
The best case scenario is an alternative to the combustion engine.
Alternatively...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheaties
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That isn't even possible.
Crain's Petrophysical Handbook - SPECIAL CASES -- TAR SAND with/without GAS
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...AB0j_Q&cad=rja
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R40459.pdf
(has very basic examples of assays)
That particular refinery specializes in heavy sour crudes, and has for a very long time, even before the "Big Switch" in the 1970s.
I have no doubt that they are in fact refining tar sands, but there's no way in hell they are refining that into the volume of gasoline they claim. Sure, gasoline is a natural by-product from the refinement of any type of oil, very light, light, intermediate, heavy or very heavy.
Pretty much if you refine oil then you get gasoline. It cannot be helped. The difference is in the quantity of gasoline that you get per barrel based on the type of oil, and that is what a crude oil assay determines. Look at the cut-offs (boiling points) for tar sands.
Which is more profitable: operating 10 refineries using light oil and getting 22 gallons of gasoline per barrel or operating 10 refineries using heavy oil and getting 3 gallons of gasoline per barrel?
That is why the US started importing light oil in the first place.
It was either build 500 gazillion refineries to refine all of the nasty heavy oil in the US, or build 2 dozen refineries and import light oil. Which is cheaper? Which is cheaper in the short-term? The long-term? Which is environmentally safer: 500 gazillion refineries or 2 dozen?
Okay, a little hyperbole there. Ten refineries at 100,000 barrels per day o heavy oil is 3 Million gallons of gasoline, but 10 refineries running light oil would get 22 Million gallons of gasoline.
3 Million versus 22 Million. Price is based on Supply & Demand, how much will that 3 Million gallons of gasoline cost if 150 Million SUV-drivers are screaming for it?
There's a trade off here. Chalk that up to "Opportunity Costs" if you want.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheaties
KXL is designed to increase prices.
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I don't see how. Condensate, very light, light, intermediate, heavy and very heavy oils each have their own benchmarks and the prices between those oils varies greatly.
The volume of heavy or very heavy oils on the world market has no bearing on the price of light oils (Brent Blend is the benchmark) or intermediate oils (WTI is the benchmark).
Tar sands diesel would have 5,000 ppm Sulfur, which cannot be used in the US, but can be used in other countries. In the US it was 500 ppm until S15/USLD reduced it to 15 ppm. That's one reason diesel is so expensive.
It's more profitable to export.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheaties
"PADD III is particularly attractive given the size and complexity of the refineries. Western Canadian crude oil, particularly bitumen blends, could compete in this market with imports from Venezuela and Mexico, particularly since it has recently been heavily discounted in the U.S. Midwest. Increased demand in this market would likely result in higher netbacks for Canadian heavy producers for two reasons: first, it would take volumes away from the Midwest market; and second, it could move the pricing parity point of heavy sour further south where Canadian heavy crudes would compete against other heavy oil imports."
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Oh I know this. I've seen that somewhere before. The Pine Bend refinery runs mostly Canadian Hardisty, which is an heavy oil on a par with Alaskan, California Heavy, Oklahoma Sour and Louisiana Heavy.
Venezuela and Mexico; that would be Boscan and Mayan respectively which are both very heavy oils. All three of those refineries at Port Arthur, Texas (where KXL terminates) run intermediate and heavy oils. One of them runs Uinta Basin Black Wax which is also a very heavy oil (I think Premcor -- not sure on that one). Valero just expanded Motiva to handle an extra 45,000 bpd and that is just for very heavy oils.
Okay, I get it now. It was a woman who wrote that? I think she's saying it'll pose a challenge to the benchmark of very heavy oils and in that context she might be correct. Still, all heavy oils are discounted. Arab Heavy, Iran Heavy, Gimboa (Angola), Heidrun (Norway) are all discounted. There world is literally awash in heavy oils. If you're a 3rd World Country that's great, but sucks to be a 1st World Country.
Oiling...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don9
Everything I listed influences speculation ...
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Only in your wildest dreams. Are you sure Chemtrails don't influence oil prices? Maybe Chemtrails influence speculators. I'm sure you can come up with a chart that shows the correlation of Chemtrails vs Oil Speculation.
Perhaps HAARP has an effect. Better go check to see if the atmospheric temperatures over the Ghewar Field have increased. Or wait, maybe you should look at the atmospheric temperatures over NYMEX.
You can theorize that HAARP is beaming speculative thoughts into the heads of speculators. If you try real hard, maybe you can come up with a graph showing correlations between Chemtrails, HAARP and Speculators.
Speculating...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by citizenkane2
Dude ....we're sitting on oil that we're too stupid to go after!! We're a long way from depletion.
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Sure, we can turn half of the US into a huge open pit quarry and the other half into a big gob cesspool for the waste water run-off.
Quote:
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How much water is required to produce one barrel of oil from the oil sands? The water requirements for oil sands projects range from 2.5 to 4.0 barrels of water for each barrel of bitumen produced.
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NEB - Energy Reports - Canada's Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges to*2015 -*Questions and Answers
Water? We don't need no stinking water.
Depleting...
Mircea
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy
Actually, it's heavily set by demand in the short term.
Not everyones gas consumption curve is price in-elastic.
Speculation can be a short term factor but that gate swings both ways and tends to be a zero-sum-game over the longer term.
Lots and lots of factors go into this.
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Generally, it's inelastic over the short-term, but shifts to elastic over the long-term.
That's why oil embargoes always fail.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy
Um, to the people screaming about high prices in California.
1) High taxes
2) Special blends due to the laws you guys have passed re: pollution
3) Your property costs and state environmental regulations are big factors as well.
This is why ALL else being equal some gas station on a corner in an expensive area in CA may need to charge a lot more than one in a low-cost real-estate area. High capital investment needs more profit to make a reasonable rate of return.
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Those people live in California and they can't figure that out?
Okay. Whatever. I guess it's a good thing they are involved.
Quote:
West Coast Retail Gasoline Prices
Thank you, Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee for the opportunity to testify today.
As you know, gasoline prices have risen sharply in recent weeks, with prices for regular grades now up over 20 cents per gallon across the country, and additional increases likely to follow. While the largest increases have occurred in the Midwest and Gulf Coast regions, average prices on the West Coast are still the highest in the country at over $1.70 per gallon (Figure 1). Higher still, is regular grade reformulated gasoline (RFG) in California, which is averaging nearly $1.83 per gallon, with premium grades averaging over $2.02 per gallon. When gasoline prices reach these levels, consumers and policy makers demand to know the underlying causes. My testimony summarizes these factors, beginning with the drivers behind the West Coast's elevated prices.
Why West Coast Gasoline Is Often the Most Expensive in the Nation
Gasoline prices on the West Coast are usually the highest in the nation, largely due to several factors. First, the West Coast is geographically isolated, with petroleum markets typically self-sufficient. That is, usually gasoline demand is almost entirely supplied from West Coast refineries. When supplies get tight, it can take weeks for added supply to arrive from outside the region. To satisfy consumption, West Coast refineries operate at relatively high levels, especially during the peak summer season. When refinery or other distribution problem occur, West Coast markets tighten very quickly, causing prices to rise quickly. Since the entire West Coast market is interconnected, price pressures in one area often affect the whole region.
The second reason West Coast prices are typically higher is that California, which comprises the dominant share of the West Coast market, uses a unique type of reformulated gasoline. California RFG must conform to more stringent requirements than Federally-mandated RFG, making it more expensive to produce. With no short-term "complying" supply readily available, significant shifts in markets conditions can cause large price changes.
Still another, but often unrecognized factor, is that not only does California consume more gasoline than any other state, nearly 39 million gallons daily in 1999, but in recent years, demand has grown at a pace roughly 2 to 4 times its production capacity growth. These factors combine to put pressure on refineries to produce at near maximum rates. With the balance between supply and demand so fragile, any problems with infrastructure, whether refining or distribution, cause prices to increase substantially. An April 2000 General Accounting Office (GAO) report noted that while California had not experienced more price "spikes" than other regions, the increases experienced were larger. This finding is consistent with a system operating with a finely tuned balance between supply and demand, with little or no room for error.
Although California strongly influences gasoline market conditions for the entire West Coast, it can impact other regions of the country as well - especially this year. A problem in California can result in extra supplies of gasoline being purchased on the Gulf Coast for delivery to the West Coast. These marginal barrels add price pressure to the Gulf Coast, which supplies not only the Gulf region, but also the East Coast and the Midwest. With the gasoline balance very tight in these other regions, especially the Midwest, additional product demand from California can increase prices in areas East of the Rocky Mountains. In closing, I would like to focus briefly on the rest of the country.
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http://www.eia.gov/FTPROOT/presentat...mony/index.htm
Not screaming...
Mircea
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