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Weather forecasts have a proven record of success within a certain time window (roughly 24 hours before the success rate drops dramatically). That is, within that time window they are often more right than they are wrong.
They also only have to account for specific aspects within the system, while a climate model or models to which you are referring to have a massive list of unknowns and systems to which there is no means of properly isolating them (ie many tunable parameters). Add in the fact that the methodology they use is often counter to basic mathematical process and you get a bunch of idiots going on about doomsday.
Look, we have already had this discussion a while back where you went on about the science, but the admitted you have no interest or concerning in it when I pressed you specifically on it.
This means, you are simply a laymen in your understanding of the science and easily impressed by white coats speculating using "fancy sciency stuff".
You may be able to pass that psuedo-science garbage off to idiots who swallow it hook, line and sinker, but if you want to discuss with me, you need to bring more to the table than philosophical rebuttals and evasions.
I don't want to discuss anything with you, you replied to me, not the other way round. I tend to ignore deniers in such threads as they are a waste of time.
Nor do I have to be a scientist to discuss this with anyone. The experts are out there and doing the work, and they know much more about these things than you do. Go discuss with them if you wish. But since you are no expert, they probably won't even talk to you in the first place.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomander
What part of the past? We have had major warming periods, major cooling periods and everything in between. So please, explain to us what part of the past you are referring to?
The recent past. If temperature increase goes hand in hand with less precipitation I don't think a warm phase makes sense. Scientists would have to study during which periods of the past the agricultural output was the highest, correcting for developments such as fertilizers, automation etc. of course.
I don't want to discuss anything with you, you replied to me, not the other way round. I tend to ignore deniers in such threads as they are a waste of time.
Nor do I have to be a scientist to discuss this with anyone. The experts are out there and doing the work, and they know much more about these things than you do. Go discuss with them if you wish. But since you are no expert, they probably won't even talk to you in the first place.
And I tend to point out the rhetoric of idiots.
Hey... I mean, if we are going to play the ad hominem game?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neuling
The recent past. If temperature increase goes hand in hand with less precipitation I don't think a warm phase makes sense. Scientists would have to study during which periods of the past the agricultural output was the highest, correcting for developments such as fertilizers, automation etc. of course.
So... you have no idea what is optimal, yet you are claiming we are in a non-optimal period? Brilliant!
I'm not an expert on climate change, but I do know that in all my years, and all the years of my 89 year old Mother, neither of us can remember a winter like we just had or a spring that we are having now in Minnesota-heck it's not even spring yet. 80 degrees yesterday and a high of 76 today. All winter we were at least 10 degrees above normal.
Yes and I say thank you co2 producers. Keep pumping away. LOL
Hey... I mean, if we are going to play the ad hominem game?
So... you have no idea what is optimal, yet you are claiming we are in a non-optimal period? Brilliant!
It seems to me the loony birds have started their global warming quest based on 1979 when satellite data was first plugged into the equation. They still can't find out what the temp should be just what they think it should be. Now they add in all these weather stations all over and on and on. I mean we got folks claimin the oceans have risen since the 1800's? Were pirates dippin a stick to the bottom of the ocean and measuring the depths back then? LOL. It's all nonsense in my eyes.
It seems to me the loony birds have started their global warming quest based on 1979 when satellite data was first plugged into the equation. They still can't find out what the temp should be just what they think it should be. Now they add in all these weather stations all over and on and on. I mean we got folks claimin the oceans have risen since the 1800's? Were pirates dippin a stick to the bottom of the ocean and measuring the depths back then? LOL. It's all nonsense in my eyes.
What I find absurd is how they will pull the "we rely on real science and real scientists" and then when you start hitting them about details and the failure of their "science" and how it is often just hokum comprised of wild guesses, they go off on some stupid philosophical rebuttal about how you can not know everything and how nothing is certain, so wild guessing is still sufficient to come to conclusions. It is mind boggling how some of these people even got through their first year of college.
I'm not an expert on climate change, but I do know that in all my years, and all the years of my 89 year old Mother, neither of us can remember a winter like we just had or a spring that we are having now in Minnesota-heck it's not even spring yet. 80 degrees yesterday and a high of 76 today. All winter we were at least 10 degrees above normal.
So you think the planet just warmed up by 20-30 degrees in 6 months? Which of the man-made global warming computer models predicted this winter, and last winter?
It all according to which direction the trade winds decide to blow, and right now they are blowing warm air from the south up into the far north of Minnesota.
What I find absurd is how they will pull the "we rely on real science and real scientists" and then when you start hitting them about details and the failure of their "science" and how it is often just hokum comprised of wild guesses, they go off on some stupid philosophical rebuttal about how you can not know everything and how nothing is certain, so wild guessing is still sufficient to come to conclusions. It is mind boggling how some of these people even got through their first year of college.
Scientists don't even know what the hell causes El Nino or El Nina, but they cab say for sure, whatever causes them it's the fault of human activity.
So you think the planet just warmed up by 20-30 degrees in 6 months? Which of the man-made global warming computer models predicted this winter, and last winter?
It all according to which direction the trade winds decide to blow, and right now they are blowing warm air from the south up into the far north of Minnesota.
I hope you're right, but man it seems like we haven't had a winter like the one's we had back in the 70's--we haven't had a winter like that for a long time. When I was a kid I remember weeks at a time we didn't get above 0 degrees for a high. This winter it was 40's for highs all winter long.
People think we have a global cool down coming on, not global warming.
PS: There was no Exxon or British Petroleum when this warming from the globe happened before, so you were not so ingenious with your post here. Please quit trying to attribute all bad things to man and attempting to then practice radical politics in response as a solution against businesses and jobs.
You are being irresponsible IMO.
Try and take out oil companies because long ago the Mayans collapsed when the last warming trend happened many hundreds if not thousands of years ago.
To me the actions you want in response to your premise makes no sense at all.
Next lets all ban toilet paper for the world because my dog belched. Makes as much sense!
Here we go again, huh? These so-called "climate scientists" are all idiots. They are all leftists, and cannot therefor be trusted.
"It's the agenda, stupid". They are fools.
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Was Exxon oil around back in the year 300?
