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Haha way to spoonfeed the typical mainstream kool aid. A big reason why manufacturing left is because those jobs were done by highly skilled well paid middle class Americans. So companies took those jobs to low paid, unskilled Chinese and third world workers. As America becomes more of a third world country i.e. the dissolving middle class into the haves and have nots of course manufacturing is going to come back. No more unions, tons of college grads who can't find jobs, people desperate to work because they can't afford retirement, and the continued influx of illegals from down south = huge boom in manufacturing.
Plus most of the highly skilled manufacturing jobs are already automated. Look at the car industry. Highly automated now compared to even 10 years ago.
I mean you people are real idiots and typical naive Americans if you think all of a sudden manufacturing is going to come back and be what it once was. You can't trust corporations. They don't give a crap about American workers nor American prosperity. Oh yippeee it's a good thing look at all the manufacturing that's coming back.!!!!!!!!!!! HELLO!!!!!!!!!! These corporations are well on their way to exhausting most third world countries and labor markets like China. Countries like China and India are having huge growth in the middle class demographic. I.e. people that are less and less willing to work for slave wages. Now the opposite is happening in America. More and more people willing to work for slave wages.
Oooh- such cynical sourness!
How did all those unskilled Chinese manage to do all those skilled jobs?
By breaking down the manufacturing process into small bits and spreading the wealth around to other companies who did the same. That's how. A little skill can go a long way then.
And that method is what the Americans are now adopting as their prototype. The Big Roof philosophy of making everything under one Big Roof failed for us, and it failed for the Koreans.
Now, American industry will become one company making some of the small parts, another company sub-assembling those parts, and a third, the one with the brand name on the product, putting the entire package together.
This is nothing with the big heavy industries, but it's brand new with a lot of consumer products industries- everything from simple appliances to clothing to commonly used consumer goods. No more Big Roof for all of them.
This makes for a recovery that is much more widespread and deeper than any others we had in the 20th century. Every small contributor company that produces products for something down the line and grow independently. The little widget can go to several outfits that make big widgets, not just one.
The manufacture can now be spread out to smaller towns. Decentralization finally makes sense. No more single company towns going boom and bust every decade or two.
It won't come back as it was. It's already coming back a lot better than it was, and will come flooding back as the costs steadily grow half the world away.
Slave wages depend on centralization to keep them slave wages. We became dependent on cheap goods because we were steadily losing industry to only price competition. It was a race to the bottom, but Americans produce quality, and while quality may cost a little more, a little more is easy to pay when everyone is working.
And when everyone is working, they want to keep working. Unions are going to grow, right along with industry, as they are the outfits that keep their members trained and qualified for the work they do. That is the reason why they have not disappeared... it is cheaper for a company in the long run to hire trained personnel than pay for the costs of training or pay the consequences of shoddy or hazardous workmanship. Union dues take care of that training, not the company who uses union labor.
Only boneheads are willing to work for nothing, and only boneheads are against unions. Since there will always be boneheads, they'll find a way to barely get by, because there are always boneheads against unions who barely get by in their businesses, too.
Manufacturing Employment by the decade:
1971-1980: +8%
1981-1990: -7%
1991-2000: -1%
2001-2010: -32%
Given the trend, I won't bet on it, but I won't dismiss it completely either.
This.
Manufacturing employment has had an uptick over the last couple years and I've no doubt the rising wages in many developing countries will bring some manufacturing back to the United States, but continued advances in automation/productivity will likely offset a lot of those employment gains.
I think the bloodletting in manufacturing employment has abated though, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the sector remain relatively constant or even rise slightly in employment numbers going forward.
Since at least 2010 SoCalCroozer has spent predicting unemployment will continue to rise and the stock market will not, its gotta sting to be so consistently wrong and I'd assume that is what makes him more bitter over time. I know I'd be pissed if I watched others cap an easy 25%+ rise in their portfolios while I sat on the sidelines gibbering about how dumb Americans are for investing in the stock market since it won't go up.
Manufacturing Employment by the decade:
1971-1980: +8%
1981-1990: -7%
1991-2000: -1%
2001-2010: -32%
Given the trend, I won't bet on it, but I won't dismiss it completely either.
We sometimes but heads on posts but that's an interesting.
I also find it interesting that the OP (and article) list construction as a "service" industry job.
Mfg on a big scale (eg. think of 1000's of workers in a single plant running 3 shifts) is long gone from US shores. There are always exceptions but it will never return to its heyday.
Better to shrink the DOD budget and pour the money into infrastructure:
roads
bridges
water and wastewater treatment plants
water, sewer and stormwater pipelines
utility power grid (while we are on that topic...nuke power too please)
Only way mfg comes returns to our shores on a small scale would be gov't intervention similar to Germany where a % of all mfg sectors must be maintained in the country. Speaking of which, Germany is a fairly conservative country with a large unionized population. wonder how that works
A new report from the Boston Consulting Group predicts that seven sectors which make up approximately $200 billion worth of goods imported from China will shift work to America by the end of the decade. The change would lower unemployment by 1.5 to 2 percentage point
By around 2015, the report predicts the U.S. will be strong enough to seem more attractive to manufacturers than the currently popular China, thanks to higher productivity and cheaper costs.
Approximately 600,000 to 1 million jobs will come directly through manufacturing work while the rest will come through supporting services, such as construction, transportation and retail.
Looking better everyday!
I have to wonder what "higher productivity and cheaper costs" means... Chinese productivity is much higher than the US because their workers are cheaper so you can get more workers to produce more at a better price... China is the land of cheap............ so how does the US get more productive and at a cheaper price (the minimum wage didn't go down and materials have actually gone up in price).... maybe because shipping is too expensive? because oil prices are too high? I think it is great that manufacturers are shifting work to America but I have to wonder what the real reason is... the next thing I have to wonder if it is only a temporary solution... and then if the "predictions" actually do happen... so far, all I hear is a bunch of good things that MIGHT happen... in which case, I have to wonder if it is just political propaganda rhetoric..
I have to wonder what "higher productivity and cheaper costs" means... Chinese productivity is much higher than the US because their workers are cheaper so you can get more workers to produce more at a better price...
I don't think so. I'm pretty sure as an economic measure productivity is output per worker, cost isn't a variable in the equation. One German running a machine that produces 100 widgets per hour is far more productive than ten Chinese producing 100 widgets per hour, even if Dieter is paid 10x more than Wang.
Quote:
China is the land of cheap............ so how does the US get more productive and at a cheaper price (the minimum wage didn't go down and materials have actually gone up in price).... maybe because shipping is too expensive? because oil prices are too high?
The logistics challenge is more than just the price of oil, its the price of a lot of manpower, import costs, insurance, and time that comes with having to pack stuff there, put in ship, unload here, put on train/truck for distribution, etc. There are also factors such as lead time, difficulties of managing remotely, supply chain for parts, risk of political interference there just comes a point where with all those factors the combination of rising wages there plus falling manufacturing wages here it is no longer automatically more profitable to produce things thousands of miles away.
So the cost of gas is going to offset the cost of cheap labor in third world countries ?
And that will bring back mfg with them building here amid stiff regulations, unions and then be subject to US domestic taxes and they will still make out compared to running their shop over in China ?
Nah..I just don't see that happening anytime in the near future.
The logistics challenge is more than just the price of oil, its the price of a lot of manpower, import costs, insurance, and time that comes with having to pack stuff there, put in ship, unload here, put on train/truck for distribution, etc. There are also factors such as lead time, difficulties of managing remotely, supply chain for parts, risk of political interference there just comes a point where with all those factors the combination of rising wages there plus falling manufacturing wages here it is no longer automatically more profitable to produce things thousands of miles away.
And for many those logistics were put in place starting decades ago.
They have their systems now and it is working.
And the wage imbalance between there and here is still huge.
We can now see that manufacturing in the USA is the key to a healthy economy.
Today America has lost a lot of manufacturing to the overseas market because of the quest for extremely high profit margins to big companies by using extremely low paid overseas workers.
The rise of Wall street has meant the decline of main street and America now does not make much of anything except money and that has led to our present economic disasters.
All we hear from some economists is how the Dollar is getting weaker and causing financial problems and increases in things like gas prices.................. a high Dollar decreases exports as it costs far more to buy American goods than to buy goods from China, for example, and our industries have suffered badly.
The recent saving of our Auto industry is a step forward for the American economy and job market. More companies are being attracted back with a concerted effort by our present administration to bring jobs back to the USA and this must be encouraged and continue if we are in any way serious about getting America back to full employment and out of economic chaos.
Arguing about the whys and wherefores of today's economy is just destructive and point scoring by many politicians. The facts are simple.............. Bring industry back to the USA and we will once again become a real force in the global economy. Industry is how America became great and lack of it is why America is sinking like a lead balloon on the global stage, a weaker Dollar may sound bad but it is the only way that industry will grow in the USA.
Kudos Mr President for your efforts in bringing jobs back to America and the last 29 months straight of job growth.........
Let me be the first to call Bull Pucky on this prediction. If our government was incompetent enough to allow (and even encourage) manufacturers to leave our shores to begin with, then I don't trust that it is smart enough to lure them back. Under what track record should we use as evidence that it will pull this massive feat off?
NONE! Our own government opened the doors for manufacturers to leave in the first place! How stupid can it get?!
Lower the corporate tax rate.
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HELLO!!!!!!!!!! These corporations are well on their way to exhausting most third world countries and labor markets like China. Countries like China and India are having huge growth in the middle class demographic. I.e. people that are less and less willing to work for slave wages. Now the opposite is happening in America. More and more people willing to work for slave wages.
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