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Old 10-04-2007, 06:24 PM
 
191 posts, read 710,607 times
Reputation: 81

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
Do the math. Then ask yourself in all honesty if you couldn't beat the rate of return you get:

Political Calculations: Approximating Social Security's Rate of Return
Ha! I did the math, and we would almost be better off stuffing cash into our mattress.
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,100 posts, read 39,112,923 times
Reputation: 4936
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
Per many earlier posts, it isn't your money, it isn't an investment program, and it is laws, not apparatchiks, that govern the situation. Only a fortunate investor would actually be able to beat SS over the long run. The rest would be worse off, many of them would be much worse off.
Not my money? Hmmm - let's see - I earn the $$$$ - it shows up in my gross earnings - so far, it is money I earned. Then "poof" - it "magically" disappears an it is not MY money? LOLOLOLOLOL

Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
Only a fortunate investor would actually be able to beat SS over the long run. The rest would be worse off, many of them would be much worse off.
Oh Bovine Scatology!
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:30 PM
 
19,198 posts, read 31,366,503 times
Reputation: 4013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
Do the math.
I've done the math for better than three decades. Make a fairly good living at it. Meanwhile, Warren Meyer, is a campground operator. Well, you might say, he does have an MBA from Harvard and used to work for Exxon. True, true, and for the USG as well, and his published writings include such pieces as "In Praise of Robber Barons" and "New Alien & Sedition Laws". He is a rather hard-core libertarian whose credo is finding private alternatives to government management. It isn't like he doesn't have a POV that he brings to bear. I take it you noticed that, though in quotes, SS is treated as an "investment" rather than as insurance right from Paragraph-1? That should have been a warning sign flashing red right at the outset.

As for his ROR tool, he doesn't detail it, merely states that he took the innards of it from a set of SSA actuarial notes on the nature of internal ROR for the SS system. Here's a paragraph from those notes that he didn't include...

Based on the provisions for benefits in the Social Security Act that have evolved since 1935, it is clear that the goal for the program has been to provide similarly adequate monthly benefit levels for men and women, and for married and non-married workers with comparable career earnings. The goal has not been to provide similar lifetime benefits or internal rates of return for these groups. Thus, while this note illustrates the fact that the internal rate of return has varied considerably across and within generations and will continue to do so in the future, it is clear that this kind of variation was both expected and intended.

Toys and analyses such as this often boil down to attempts to defame SS for the flaw of working as planned and designed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
Then ask yourself in all honesty if you couldn't beat the rate of return you get...
Oh, I've already beaten the calculated ROR on SS by a fairly comfortable margin. That in part is because I have avoided the stock market except under the most particularly favorable of circumstances. You want to throw much less experienced and much less sophisticated people in there whole hog. The outcomes of that are reasonably predictable. Only the fortunate will survive...
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:31 PM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,100 posts, read 39,112,923 times
Reputation: 4936
Gee - one of the things that is so comforting to Social Security "receipents" is, this great "benifit" - this "safety net" called Social Security - they have to report it as income and pay tax on it -

Let's see - taxed going in - taxed going out -

Wow!! Double Taxation - and, it's not "my" money!!!!

Great Ponzi Scheme
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Old 10-04-2007, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,100 posts, read 39,112,923 times
Reputation: 4936
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
I've done the math for better than three decades. .
As have I - and I'm no rocket scientist either - I am so far ahead of anything Social Security would have paid me it is off the charts!!!

And, to be clear - Apples to Apples - I invested the exact same amount that would have been "taxed" from my check, and the amount of the employers "contribution" -

Social Security payments, pre tax - do not even come close!!!!

No, clearly you want the people beholden to the teat of the government -

I don't
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Old 10-04-2007, 09:03 PM
 
19,198 posts, read 31,366,503 times
Reputation: 4013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatday View Post
Not my money? Hmmm - let's see - I earn the $$$$ - it shows up in my gross earnings - so far, it is money I earned. Then "poof" - it "magically" disappears an it is not MY money? LOLOLOLOLOL
Consider: Payroll taxes are included in your gross pay only to allow you to pay the tax. If the tax went away, so would the corresponding portion of your gross pay. These funds are not related to any economic activity or benefit that you provide to your employer. Further, you confirm every day that you are willing to show up at the appointed hour and do whatever it is that you do in exchange for your net pay. If the programs that payroll taxes fund were to go away, your payroll taxes would go down and your gross income would go down by a like amount, leaving you with exactly the same net pay as you earn right now. Your employer would keep his share, and he would keep your share. You would never see a dime of it. Because it isn't your money. You didn't earn it. We all agreed to put it there only so that you could pay the tax.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatday View Post
Oh Bovine Scatology!
Easy to type, harder (much harder) to demonstrate. Take the estimated whole-life value of the various insurance benefits that SS provides against the projected premiums you will pay, then price out equivalent private sector products (if you can find them), then create a whole-life model that let's you, using the stock market as your engine, acquire and pay for equivalent benefits as against known and realistic risks and see how well you have to do in the market to make out. Be sure to include a factor for what you will do when you are say ten years out from your planned retirement date and realize that you are 30% short of the wealth you projected you would need by that point in time in order to reach the finish line successfully.
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Old 10-04-2007, 09:15 PM
 
19,198 posts, read 31,366,503 times
Reputation: 4013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatday View Post
Gee - one of the things that is so comforting to Social Security "receipents" is, this great "benifit" - this "safety net" called Social Security - they have to report it as income and pay tax on it - Let's see - taxed going in - taxed going out - Wow!! Double Taxation - and, it's not "my" money!!!!
A lot of people are opposed to means-testing of SS. And seeing as you could have an equal financial effect by a variety of alternate means, they may have a point. On the other hand, it is quite possible to retire, collect full SS benefits, work at a part time job, end up earning well in excess of the median household income, and still owe no tax on your SS benefits at all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatday View Post
Great Ponzi Scheme
Hmmm. Ponzi Scheme. Polly want a cracker?
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Old 10-04-2007, 09:19 PM
 
19,198 posts, read 31,366,503 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greatday View Post
As have I - and I'm no rocket scientist either - I am so far ahead of anything Social Security would have paid me it is off the charts!!!
Well, that's good for you. Now, what would say the chances are that your personal experiences would be universally replicable?
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Old 10-04-2007, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,100 posts, read 39,112,923 times
Reputation: 4936
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
Consider: Payroll taxes are included in your gross pay only to allow you to pay the tax. If the tax went away, so would the corresponding portion of your gross pay. These funds are not related to any economic activity or benefit that you provide to your employer. Further, you confirm every day that you are willing to show up at the appointed hour and do whatever it is that you do in exchange for your net pay. If the programs that payroll taxes fund were to go away, your payroll taxes would go down and your gross income would go down by a like amount, leaving you with exactly the same net pay as you earn right now. Your employer would keep his share, and he would keep your share. You would never see a dime of it. Because it isn't your money. You didn't earn it. We all agreed to put it there only so that you could pay the tax.


Easy to type, harder (much harder) to demonstrate. Take the estimated whole-life value of the various insurance benefits that SS provides against the projected premiums you will pay, then price out equivalent private sector products (if you can find them), then create a whole-life model that let's you, using the stock market as your engine, acquire and pay for equivalent benefits as against known and realistic risks and see how well you have to do in the market to make out. Be sure to include a factor for what you will do when you are say ten years out from your planned retirement date and realize that you are 30% short of the wealth you projected you would need by that point in time in order to reach the finish line successfully.
Let's see - I'm self employed - I work for myself - no one else (and have for over 40 years) - I decide how much to pay me - not someone else

And, as for "demonstating" ROR - I do, and have, everyday. I have demonstrated investing the same amount of money I would have paid into SS if I had not withdrawn - I know how much I would have qualifed for in SS "benifits" if I had been in the system

Fact is, I am able to get 9 + times, each month, of what I would have gotten on SS - and, that is a fact.

The other, and in many respects, the more important FACT is, what is left when I die can be passed on to whomever I want - it is my choice. The survivor benifit you are so proud of is limited to a very select few. My survivor benifit has no limitations as to who can / will recieve it.

And, you still have to report "YOUR" social security "benifits" as income and may be subject to taxation. Much of my "benifit" is "tax free" - federal and state -

Sorry, I do not agree with SS (obviously). I also know you want the people to have to suck at the teat of the government.

I believe in the peoples ability to make decisions for themselves - without government .... "help". You clearly believe in a "craddle to grave" situation with the government involved in ones life - from beginning to end. I, and millions of others, don't.

Social security needs modernizing - this much is clear. And, the "battle lines" are being drawn - Government responsible for me - or, Me responsible for Me

I choose the later. You chose the former.

Stark difference
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Old 10-04-2007, 09:45 PM
 
Location: Pinal County, Arizona
25,100 posts, read 39,112,923 times
Reputation: 4936
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista View Post
Well, that's good for you. Now, what would say the chances are that your personal experiences would be universally replicable?
Universal? Nothing is "universal"

Widely replicable? Very much so
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