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Old 09-11-2012, 10:33 AM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
10,581 posts, read 9,785,325 times
Reputation: 4174

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A CNN poll released Monday, Sept. 10, 2012, found that 52% of "likely voters" would vote for Obama today, while 46% would vote for Romney.

How did CNN find this out?

By asking 441 Democrats while asking only 397 Republicans. That's 11% more Democrats than Republicans.

I'm so glad the media isn't biased.

See the raw poll at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/im.../10/rel10a.pdf
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:41 AM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,956,097 times
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No worries, a WaPo/ABC poll from today shows the race a dead heat, just like it was before the conventions. - meaning that whatever "bounce" Obama may have gotten from the DNC circus act has fizzled.

Quote:
Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans. When the Washington Post/ABC poll tells you there’s been no convention bump for Barack Obama, you can pretty much take that to the bank. Their latest survey shows the likely-voter split in the presidential race right where we found it a fortnight ago, with Obama up one single point over Mitt Romney — in a sample that favors the Democrats:
Link: WaPo/ABC poll shows no change in race from before convention « Hot Air

More alarmingly for the Obamalemmings is a Quinnipiac poll released today showing that Romney is only seven - SEVEN - points behind in New Jersey, a deep deep deep blue state that Oblama carried by almost twice that margin in 2008.

Quote:
President Barack Obama tops Gov. Mitt Romney, his Republican challenger, 51 - 44 percent among New Jersey likely voters, who say the president will do a better job on Medicare and health care while Romney will do a better job on the economy, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Link: New Jersey (NJ) Poll * September 6, 2012 * Obama Tops Romney Among New Je - Quinnipiac University – Hamden, Connecticut

Interested observers might want to buy stock in Depends undergarments, because that stock is going to rise this fall as the Democrats increasingly wet their pants and Oblama gets the firing he so richly deserves.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:42 AM
 
876 posts, read 709,037 times
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Do you think that their thinking is that more people will continue to stay on obama's bandwagon if they think most other's are? I would be more likely to vote if I thought my candidate was down in the polls. This may backfire for them.
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Old 09-11-2012, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Oxygen Ln. AZ
9,319 posts, read 18,749,757 times
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They had Kerry over Bush by 14 this time during the election. Carter was up 4 over Reagan.

I think the polls are tweaked. The media loves a bloody race to the finish line. The people will decide in Nov.
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Old 09-11-2012, 11:02 AM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
10,581 posts, read 9,785,325 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MotleyCrew View Post
They had Kerry over Bush by 14 this time during the election. Carter was up 4 over Reagan.

I think the polls are tweaked. The media loves a bloody race to the finish line. The people will decide in Nov.
And Clinton was anywhere from 20% to 30% over Dole in 1996. Clinton actually won by 9%.

Why do polls always show Democrats so much higher than the actual election comes out?

I wonder how many Dems actually get asked during these polls many years ago, vs. how many Republicans actually get asked?

Anybody know where to find the actual numbers from years ago?
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:16 PM
 
Location: San Diego, CA
10,581 posts, read 9,785,325 times
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"It was a random accident" doesn't really cover it any more.

Can anybody come up with a poll before an election, in the last thirty years, where the Republican candidate was predicted to have a higher percentage over the Democrat, than he actually wound up getting in the election?
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:18 PM
 
1,027 posts, read 1,257,051 times
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Man, it's beginning to sound like 2008 all over again. Republicans shrieking and whining how the polls are always oversampling Democrats.

Hey genius, have you ever stopped to think that there are simply MORE Democrats in America than Republicans? Also, after the failed 8 years of Dumbya Bush the Village Idiot from Texas, many Republicans are simply calling themselves independents because they don't want to be associated with the GOP brand. Hence, you are always going to find more self-described Democrats in any random population sample of voting adults.
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:23 PM
 
5,524 posts, read 9,939,933 times
Reputation: 1867
Why do you care what the polls say or do you use the results to make your decision on who to vote for? Every poll is different and changes so they are in essence useless. WHO CARES!?
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Old 09-11-2012, 12:52 PM
 
Location: Where they serve real ale.
7,242 posts, read 7,908,614 times
Reputation: 3497
Virtually every poll shows the same numbers. I'm sorry you are unhappy about those numbers but they've been confirmed over and over and so really are correct. Yes, even if you don't like them.
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Old 09-11-2012, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Home, Home on the Front Range
25,826 posts, read 20,706,970 times
Reputation: 14818
Quote:
Originally Posted by Little-Acorn View Post
A CNN poll released Monday, Sept. 10, 2012, found that 52% of "likely voters" would vote for Obama today, while 46% would vote for Romney.

How did CNN find this out?

By asking 441 Democrats while asking only 397 Republicans. That's 11% more Democrats than Republicans.

I'm so glad the media isn't biased.

See the raw poll at http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/im.../10/rel10a.pdf
What is the current breakdown of registered Ds vs. Rs. vs Independents?

Is there a 50/50 split between Ds and Rs?

Shouldn't pollsters try to replicate the known universe when building their samples?

Shouldn't this have been posted in the big poll thread?
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