Why do Republican's despair positive Economic Trends?

[walidm]

Originally Posted by BigJon3475

You make a thread about "Why do Republican's despair positive Economic Trends?" and then completely dismiss facts pointing out that fact that it is not improving. You don't just dismiss them outright you completely ignore them.

My candidate? Maybe you're just lacking in the ability to understand what "missing the point" means so I'll point it out as clearly as I can. The economy is not getting better and has not for over a decade and the next person that becomes president will have little to no influence on that long-term trend.

As far as neocons go maybe you should try educated yourself and learn what a neoconservative is. (An idiot? lol)

Hmm...

Well yes, I guess I did dismiss your opinion and probably ignored your little feelings too...lol

Stop stating opinions as fact. The economy has improved quite a bit for some over the last decade.

[dreamofmonterey]

Originally Posted by Taratova

Take a look at the foreclosure rates because of people being unemployed.. thousands in just one city.. and this has been going on since 2007. 6 years of millions of foreclosures and still going strong.

14,000 foreclosures on the market today in the city of Orlando, Florida -many going for peanuts.

Orlando Foreclosures — Trulia.com

Hilarious post.

You were the same one posting in '08 that bank bailouts were necessary, and "let the market decide". And a house is NOT an investment, you should have 6 figures saved in retirement

Then your faction expects empathy bcs new college grad daughter cant get a job in Florida in 2012.


You cannot see beyond your own backyard. It is unbelievable.

I have posted MANY OP threads on foreclosures and lack of infrastructure in Florida. A few other long termers here have as well.

You never cared about it . Oh well.

It is hopeless to discuss important facts with some people.

[BigJon3475]

Originally Posted by walidm

Hmm...

Well yes, I guess I did dismiss your opinion and probably ignored your little feelings too...lol

Stop stating opinions as fact. The economy has improved quite a bit for some over the last decade.

How propagandistic of you to change my post and make it look as if I said something I did not.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by It'sAutomatic

I'd recommend you face the fact that the president is only one gear in the entire economic engine and he alone has little control over the outcome.

Then, please, send him a text/sext, e-mail, fax, telephone message or hire a plane with one of them banner things telling him exactly what you said....because he seems to think that he can do something and so long as he continues to lie, I'm going to stomp all over him at every opportunity.

Originally Posted by It'sAutomatic

The deficit is a problem, but it was worth borrowing money to save our country. Look at how austerity and fiscal discipline is working in Europe.

WTF? You can't even distinguish between the budget deficit and the National Debt.

And did you really save your country? The jury is still out on that one, and will be for at least a decade.

And for the record, austerity is working in Europe. Austerity is not a one-size-fits-all scheme. It has to be tailored to address specific issues in each country's economy. Those EU States that implemented the correct austerity measures for their unique country fared well, and those that did not will need to continue with austerity measures.

You will be forced into austerity measures soon enough -- and it will be your fault because you refuse to objectively view economic data.

Have fun with that.

Recommending....

Mircea

Originally Posted by walidm

The workforce participation rate has been shrinking for over ten years through multiple Administrations.

You're fun to debunk.

LNU01300000 Civilian labor force participation rate

Year Annual LFPR
1990 66.5%
1991 66.2%
1992 66.4%
1993 66.3% Approximate point of maximum saturation of women in the work-force

1994 66.6%
1995 66.6%
1996 66.8%
1997 67.1%
1998 67.1% Aberration due to Y2K/Millennium Fever

1999 67.1%
2000 67.1%
2001 66.8%
2002 66.6%
2003 66.2%
2004 66.0%
2005 66.0%
2006 66.2%
2007 66.0%
2008 66.0%
2009 65.4%
2010 64.7%
2011 64.1%
2012 63.6%

As you can see, you made another false claim.

Originally Posted by walidm

When did you become concerned?

2005.

A friend asked me to review Social Security to help him plan for his retirement, as well as guide his parents and in-laws, and provide for his children.

At that time I predicted Social Security would be insolvent by 2014, and that the Trust Fund would collapse in 2028 -- SSA was predicting 2041. I erred on the 2014 prediction -- SSA became insolvent in 2009, but that was due to the recession. Had the recession not occurred, SSA would have become insolvent in 2014.

There are three integral components to funding Social Security and Medicare, and by extension, Obamacare:

1] ratio of workers to beneficiaries
2] FICA/SECA tax rates
3] real wages

The Labor Force Participation Rate impacts the ratio of workers to beneficiaries.

Real Wages have been declining since the Clinton Administration....

National Average Wage Index

1951-1960: 4.09%
1961-1970: 4.45%
1971-1980: 7.31%
1981-1990: 5.34%
1991-2000: 4.35%
2001-2010: 2.64%

BigJon posted data to support that as well as prove that wages are continuing to be flat/decline, but you dismissed that as "irrelevant" and then claimed it was a "positive Economic Trend."

Your own ideology and blatant disregard for Realityâ„¢ blinds you to the Truthâ„¢, which is that you cannot fund Social Security or Medicare, and by extension Obamacare.

You will need to increase the FICA/SECA tax rates and the level of increase is related to real wages and your Labor Force Participation Rate. You ignore the damage to your economy, not only at the national level but at the State and local level as well, when the FICA/SECA tax rates must be increased to pay for those programs.

Unless you intend to pay for them out of the General Fund.....but then that would a form of Austerityâ„¢, since you're cutting government spending.

Originally Posted by walidm

Yawn.

Alzheimer's.

You would've done better to just jump in with the usual useless data and tenuous ties to nothing pertinent.

Then pray tell, what exactly do you believe to be pertinent?

The only thing you're doing is proving that you have no understanding of Economics, and that there are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

Originally Posted by walidm

Just be honest: You'd rather the economy send no positive signals because it helps your candidate...pretty simple formula to gain a modicum of respect, right?

I'm loathe to speak for another, but some of us are only interested in the Truth, even if the Truth is ugly, even if the Truth isn't want we want it to be and even if the Truth is painful.

Obviously, you're not interested in the Truth.

It is the Truth that provides a solid foundation on which to build, instead of an house of cards, and it doesn't matter if you're planning your household budget, running your business or running a country.

Originally Posted by walidm

Watching Bush's cheer leading neocons crying about the decline in the labor participation rate is more comedy than the average ticket supports.

I'm a Constructivist, not a Neo-Con. I'm the one who consistently points out the flaws of Neo-Cons -- even when they were called Social Democrats before they became Neo-Cons -- but you wouldn't know anything about that, because you're not interested in Truth.

You'd also have to question the intelligence of someone who is so pathetic they don't understand that Republicans are not Neo-Cons and Neo-Cons are not Republicans.

To the extent that you rail against Neo-Cons, why don't you explain to everyone why Carter had Neo-Cons on his White House Staff? Why did Clinton have Neo-Cons on his White House Staff? Why did Clinton submit the name of a Neo-Con on his White House Staff to be CIA Director? Why did Obama have a Neo-Con as his foreign policy advisor during the 2008 Election Campaign? Why did Obama hand-pick 6 Neo-Cons to be on his White House Staff?

And it isn't my fault that you don't understand the implications of the Labor Force Participation Rate, especially as it relates to certain social welfare programs, like Social Security and Medicare, and Obamacare, and even that it impacts your State/local government employee pension programs.

Lower Labor Force Participation Rate with stagnant/declining wages, yeah, the States/cities are really raking in the sales tax revenue and income tax revenue to fund their pension programs, right?

You might want to spend less time yawning and more time studying.

Originally Posted by walidm

The economy continues to improve.

Dream on.

Originally Posted by walidm

Perspective.

Something you totally lack.

Originally Posted by walidm

Clearly a Romneybot...but what else can we expect.

On what basis do you make that ridiculous claim?

I've never made any statements in support of Romney. The fact that I question the policies of the Obama Administration does not make me a de facto Romney supporter -- it just means I'm smarter than the idiots who refuse to question policies.

Originally Posted by walidm

Nope not an economist,...

Other than your blatantly obvious attempts to mislead people, then why are you commenting?

Originally Posted by walidm

... but then I don't play commentator from outside the US either.

I'm not from the outside.

I'm an American citizen of Romanian descent, and a decorated disabled veteran. I'm here for medical reasons, but I choose to live in Romania because it suits my life-style, and because the cost-of-living is significantly lesser than the US. I paid just over $13,000 cash for my house which sits on about 12 hectares or so (whatever that is in acres). I'm totally self-sufficient for the most part.

I can live better than you on just $300-$350/month, and if you cannot, then that's your problem, not mine.

Originally Posted by walidm

Yeah, the data was irrelevant and covered in another thread, try to keep up. This thread has a topic.

The data is not "irrelevant."

The topic is "Why do Republican's despair positive Economic Trends?"

Even though I'm not a Republican, although I am an ultra-conservative (I'm a registered Democrat), I addressed your topic with these questions......

Originally Posted by Mircea

How are flat/declining wages a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is declining household income a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is declining GDP a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is the loss of 536,000 full-time jobs a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is 1.3 Million part-time jobs a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is a decline in manufacturing a "positive Economic Trend?"
How is declining labor force participation rate a "positive Economic Trend?"

.....which you have blatantly refused to answer -- obviously -- since it would debunk your own topic.

Originally Posted by walidm

I know you love doomsday prognostications, fortunately for us, for as long as you've been spouting them, you've been wrong.

You obviously have me confused with someone else.

I have no fear of making economic predictions, and have been making them here since 2007, and I have never been wrong......not even once.

I have underestimated things at times. For exampled I predicted the corn harvest for 2011 would be low and the price would rise over $7/bushel. The harvest was low and it jumped from $6.50/bushel to $7.50/bushel....so excuse the hell out of me.

Where's your 5% unemployment rate?

I said in 2010 it would never happen, and explained why.

And in spite of what you think, I've never made any "doomsday prognostications." In fact, I have repeatedly chastised, ridiculed, debunked, slammed and ragged on those who have made "doomsday prognostications."

Originally Posted by Mircea

The next time you hear a dog barking, pay attention, because the dog is probably barking something about "economic collapse" (snicker) and whatever the dog said would be more credible...and accurate.... than the crap from economicbarfbag.

I know people fantasize and romanticize about "economic collapse" (snicker) but this is the real world and it doesn't work that way. Is your economy going to slow down and contract? Sure, especially when you have to start paying for the party you've been having, but it won't collapse.

Unbiasedly...

Mircea

Originally Posted by Mircea

"Could" collapse?

What, you can't be any more certain than that? How pathetic. How much do you get post this drivel and waste band-width?

Do you get paid by the megabyte or terabyte?

Not amused with propaganda artists...

Mircea

Originally Posted by Mircea

Heavy drinking and extreme stress?

Collapse of what? The economy? Don't you have something better to do?

Indicating...

Mircea

Originally Posted by Mircea

You just won't give up will you?

No, the economy will not collapse. Quit drinking out of kramercat's cup.

Laughing at the superior intellect...

Mircea

Those are just a few of the 115-odd post over the last 6 years.

I'm all for Truth, and the Truth is your economy will not collapse and there will be no doomsday, and I have repeatedly maintained that, but the Truth is that there is nothing good happening, and and that will be the situation for a long-time to come, and you had best get used to it.

I would point out that back in 2007, before I correctly predicted the year and quarter of your recession start, I was saying the OASDI Trust Fund would become exhausted in 2028.

People thought I was crazy, except 5 years later the 2012 SSA Report shows the OASDI Trust Fund becoming exhausted in 2027 under the High Cost Assumptions, so I guess I wasn't that far off the mark after all.

And no, it isn't fear-mongering or doomsday prognosticating, it is educating people in the Truth, which is something you adamantly abhor.

But your economy is far worse than even I predicted, and so the Trust Fund will collapse in 2023-2024 under current laws.

And a low Labor Force Participation Rate is one of the reasons, as are flat/declining wages.

You can bury your head in the sand and keep screaming that the economy is getting better, but that defies both Truth and Reality.

Originally Posted by walidm

Laughing...at you

Since you claim to be a real estate agent, it's rather bizarre that you don't see how a lower Labor Force Participation Rate can negatively impact your ability to sell homes.

As I said, you can save Social Security and Medicare, but there will be an heavy price to pay and that price will be a lower standard of living, a toned-down life-style and more unemployed people.

We'll see who gets the last laugh.

Laughing at the superior intellect...

Mircea

[dreamofmonterey]

SS cannot go bankrupt:

source:

It is a logical impossibility for Social Security to go bankrupt. We can voluntarily choose to suspend or eliminate the program, but it could never fail because it “ran out of money.” This belief is the result of a common error: conceptualizing Social Security from the micro (individual) rather than the macro (economy-wide) perspective. It’s not a pension fund into which you put your money when you are young and from which you draw when you are old. It’s an immediate transfer from workers today to retirees today. That’s what it has always been and that’s what it has to be–there is no other possible way for it to work.

More factual info here:

Why Social Security Cannot Go Bankrupt - Forbes



Ryan wants Wall street to privatize it. We see how well Wall St did in 2008. They want to dis-assemble Medicare, rather than bring in jobs. Why? Bcs the GOP and CEOs like outsourcing.

The economy may get better, unless we let the GOP agenda take over. Then everyone, except the 1% loses.


microexample: You will have an island, like Maui. It is a tourist economy with zero infrastructure. Florida is already like this as well as many southern states. In Maui a small hotel owner was complaining that he couldnt find any help . (I posted on this in 2007)

Bcs all that live on that island are granted, or inherited land, plus the uber rich like Oprah etc., buy acreage there.

But, thats it. No other type people exist except for a few small shops, gas stations etc.


This is what the US is becoming. Visit South Florida sometime, west Miami and entire buildings that are abandoned.

This is the mess that Wall Street, and de-regulation from the 1980's created.

It is certainly not Obamas fault. And imo he is doing the best he can.

[walidm]

Originally Posted by Mircea

And for the record, austerity is working in Europe.

Lol...good job selling that, oh wait, you countered yourself and left an out. Good job, that was slick.

Originally Posted by Mircea

You're fun to debunk.

Pay attention - Ten years...

Originally Posted by Mircea

2005.

Good for you. Not certain who asked you.

Originally Posted by Mircea

I'm not from the outside.

I'm here for medical reasons, but I choose to live in Romania.

Laughing at the superior intellect...

Mircea

So...you're commenting from outside, right superiority complex?

Laughing at the Ivory tower.

[walidm]

Originally Posted by BigJon3475

How propagandistic of you to change my post and make it look as if I said something I did not.

It was pretty clear that the response in parenthesis was my response to you.

[Wapasha]

Originally Posted by It'sAutomatic

I'd recommend you face the fact that the president is only one gear in the entire economic engine and he alone has little control over the outcome. If you had any sense to realize this, you wouldn't be here spouting this crap.

The deficit is a problem, but it was worth borrowing money to save our country. Look at how austerity and fiscal discipline is working in Europe.

I'm not "spouting crap" I'm telling you the truth. 0bama never signed a federal budget, or a tax policy, even when his own party controlled both houses of congress, that shows a lack of leadership, and a failure to fulfill his duties and responsibilities as president.

You cannot excuse away 0bama'a failure in leadership by trivializing the office of the president. 0bama, as president shut down oil drilling in the gulf, and his EPA has shuttered electric power plants, hardly an insignificant gear, with little control, as you stated.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by walidm

Good for you. Not certain who asked you.

Obviously not you, since everything's coming up roses for you in your fantasy world.

Here's five more "positive Economic Trends" for everyone to celebrate....

1] FICA/SECA payroll tax collections declined from $197.7 Billion in the 2nd Quarter to $169.3 Billion in the 3rd Quarter. That's a decline of almost $30 Billion in FICA/SECA payroll taxes....

2]...bringing us to an October payroll tax estimate for October based on September trends to a paltry $49.3 Billion which would be the lowest monthly amount collected in 2012. Consider that the least amount collected thus far in 2012 was $53 Billion in July....

3] ...gives us a current short-fall of $270 Billion....meaning this will be the 5th straight year that Social Security has failed to meet its projected income levels....

4] ....and the 7th straight year of declining assets....

5]... which means HI (Medicare) is trending the same way, and you have 2 months to crap $37 Billion or this will be the 5th year in a row that Medicare takes losses....good luck with that.

And those things are all functions of a declining Labor Force Participation Rate.

Lower Rate means fewer taxes collected.....don't worry, you'll eventually figure it out when you get to deal with Austerityâ„¢ up close and personal.

By the way, just to let everyone in on a little tip/secret...if you aren't looking at OASDI/HI payroll data, then you're going to have a really hard time accurately predicting when the US will enter recession.

Note that declining payroll in conjunction with declining GDP is one possible indicator of recession (not this year....sorry...you'll have to wait.....it's better that way).

Celebrating positive economic trends...

Mircea