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If Romney is up 4 or 5 percent on election day, statistically it will be near impossible for Obama to win the electoral college, just based on the distribution of the voters across all states.
Lets say that 70% or more people in "red" states vote for Romney. The turn out is really high in "red" states.
Throws the "national" numbers way off. Which is why I never account for the national numbers, they are essentially useless.
I want to see the daily tracking numbers about next Monday. Then after the debate on Monday, see what the daily tracking numbers are in Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, and Wisconsin next Friday. Take a sample of 5 polls, throw out the highest and lowest, and that'll give you a real idea of about where the election is headed.
We'll know by about oct the 26th who has a good chance to win the election.
Lets say that 70% or more people in "red" states vote for Romney. The turn out is really high in "red" states.
Throws the "national" numbers way off. Which is why I never account for the national numbers, they are essentially useless.
I want to see the daily tracking numbers about next Monday. Then after the debate on Monday, see what the daily tracking numbers are in Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, and Wisconsin next Friday. Take a sample of 5 polls, throw out the highest and lowest, and that'll give you a real idea of about where the election is headed.
Expect it to be higher to prove that "landing blows" in a debate is actually a turn-off to everyone but the candidate's base. At best, Obama might energize some libs to show up but turn off undecideds.
Precision is far more important than recall, when you boil it down.
Expect it to be higher to prove that "landing blows" in a debate is actually a turn-off to everyone but the candidate's base. At best, Obama might energize some libs to show up but turn off undecideds.
Precision is far more important than recall, when you boil it down.
Most people are comparing this to the 2004 election, which is a good one. Its about base turn out, because independents probably won't be voting in large numbers.
Like I said, about Oct 26th, look at 5 daily tracking polls in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado, throw out the highest, and lowest numbers, and average the other three. That'll give you an idea.
Barring a massive screw up by one of the two campaigns of course
Most people are comparing this to the 2004 election, which is a good one. Its about base turn out, because independents probably won't be voting in large numbers.
Like I said, about Oct 26th, look at 5 daily tracking polls in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado, throw out the highest, and lowest numbers, and average the other three. That'll give you an idea.
Barring a massive screw up by one of the two campaigns of course
Interesting because it seems to have a 1980 look to me, with Carter up 6 right before the election. Let's bookmark this and see the result so we can watch the other eat crow. I will ping you with a PM and bump this thread Nov. 6 either way.
These polling companies just don't want to lose their professional reputations by faking those high Obama polls, when he loses in a landslide, so they are slowly correcting their previously fraudulent polls to show the truth.
Interesting because it seems to have a 1980 look to me, with Carter up 6 right before the election. Let's bookmark this and see the result so we can watch the other eat crow. I will ping you with a PM and bump this thread Nov. 6 either way.
Cool. Look, I don't know whats going to happen, I'm not a fortune teller. Romney is doing much better after the first debate, no doubt.
I know a lot of "liberals" are really excited after the last debate. One things for sure, things are better on a day to day basis then they were 4 years ago, losing what, 800,000 jobs a month or something? But the debt is nuts.
I"m a debt voter, which is why I can't vote for Romney or Obama, neither of their plans add up on the deficit for me. I'm voting third party or independent. I may even write in a name.
Interesting because it seems to have a 1980 look to me, with Carter up 6 right before the election. Let's bookmark this and see the result so we can watch the other eat crow. I will ping you with a PM and bump this thread Nov. 6 either way.
That's what they are trying not to duplicate, because a lot of polling agencies were left looking like partisan fools, with egg on their faces, when their polls skewed to a big Carter win, were shown to be completely worthless.
These polling companies just don't want to lose their professional reputations by faking those high Obama polls, when he loses in a landslide, so they are slowly correcting their previously fraudulent polls to show the truth.
Last week will be important as polling agencies' reputations are on the line. I think you're absolutely right, and if there is a Bradley effect, none of the pollsters will have realized it before the fact, so they need to be super accurate outside of that variable. These agencies are in essence competing with each other.
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