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Old 11-12-2012, 06:50 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD / NY
781 posts, read 1,196,631 times
Reputation: 434

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Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
Let us just assume McCain averaged 1 vote from all 59 of them precincts. What are the odds that all 59 McCain supporters either moved, changed their vote, did not vote or died? Even if you assumed a 90% chance of this occurring on each individual voter you end up with the astronomical odds of .9 to the 59th power. Seems pretty low to me. What about Romney offends black voters, who are willing to vote Republican, more than McCain? It could be I am missing something. I do not know what it is. No matter what good stuff a pitcher has they seldom throw a perfect game.


Of course, the .9 to the 59th power is very conservative and ignores the fact a Romney voter could have moved in, turned 18, changed from their previous Obama vote, etc.

You cannot prove beyond all doubt a single individual person died of lung cancer due to smoking, but the statistics prove smoking causes lung cancer.
...
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Old 11-12-2012, 06:51 PM
 
4,412 posts, read 3,959,936 times
Reputation: 2326
Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
Have not seen my stats debunked. I'm waiting.
Because your thoughts and opinions aren't statistics. It's NOT surprising that voting districts, some no larger than a city block, went 100% for Obama in West-freaking-Philadelphia.

Even if someone who isn't familiar with Philly is clutching their pearls over this, what would be the purpose of election fraud like this in an area that was a guaranteed win for a candidate? You put that kind of effort out in suburban Bucks County, not inner Philadelphia.

Last edited by Mr. Mon; 11-12-2012 at 07:01 PM..
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:02 PM
 
Location: Houston
26,979 posts, read 15,892,870 times
Reputation: 11259
Yes, but despite all of that McCain did get votes in many of those precincts in 2008. In this election Romney did better than McCain did among black voters. I do not have stats for urban black voters. It seems to me that the odds would favor Romney doing slightly better in these precincts than McCain did in 2008. The odds of Romney not getting a single vote in all these precincts still seems astronomical. There could be a factor I am missing. No one on this thread has given it to me.

One factor I do not know is these precincts are obviously cherry picked, if there were precincts that did not give McCain a single vote but did give Romney votes that would change the odds. At this point to me the odds of zero votes seems highly improbable to astronomical.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:27 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
14,682 posts, read 14,652,852 times
Reputation: 15415
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wapasha View Post
As long as 70% of all black children are born out of wedlock, blacks will continue to remain in poverty, and voting for Democrats. Sad, but true.

72 Percent of African-American Children Born to Unwed Mothers - BV Black Spin
Ignoring your correlation between marriage and poverty, those who are impoverished have no choice between voting for the party who is somewhat committed to improving their situation, or not voting at all. Only self-deprecation would allow them to vote for a party who is openly hostile and demeaning to them on a regular basis.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:29 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
14,682 posts, read 14,652,852 times
Reputation: 15415
Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
Yes, but despite all of that McCain did get votes in many of those precincts in 2008. In this election Romney did better than McCain did among black voters. I do not have stats for urban black voters. It seems to me that the odds would favor Romney doing slightly better in these precincts than McCain did in 2008. The odds of Romney not getting a single vote in all these precincts still seems astronomical. There could be a factor I am missing. No one on this thread has given it to me.

One factor I do not know is these precincts are obviously cherry picked, if there were precincts that did not give McCain a single vote but did give Romney votes that would change the odds. At this point to me the odds of zero votes seems highly improbable to astronomical.
McCain didn't state his job was not to worry about poor people. Theoretically, there could've been some vets who felt a bond with McCain, or they simply liked his record in the Senate. Romney offered no positive qualities to anyone living somewhere like North Philly, and they certainly didn't think he cared about their plight.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:37 PM
 
Location: Near Manito
20,169 posts, read 24,334,415 times
Reputation: 15291
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural510 View Post
Romney offered no positive qualities to anyone living somewhere like North Philly, and they certainly didn't think he cared about their plight.
Living in a city with about four decades of one-party rule, and voting year after year for the same cast of characters, perhaps it might behoove the denizens of North Philly to contemplate the source of "their plight".

Hint: it sure as hell ain't Romney.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:41 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Ohio
14,682 posts, read 14,652,852 times
Reputation: 15415
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yeledaf View Post
Living in a city with about four decades of one-party rule, and voting year after year for the same cast of characters, perhaps it might behoove the denizens of North Philly to contemplate the source of "their plight".

Hint: it sure as hell ain't Romney.
So you vote for candidates who point-blank state they don't care about you or your interests?
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:47 PM
 
31,387 posts, read 37,054,795 times
Reputation: 15038
Quote:
Originally Posted by whogo View Post
Yes, but despite all of that McCain did get votes in many of those precincts in 2008.
2008 was 2008. This is about 2012.

Quote:
In this election Romney did better than McCain did among black voters.
Based upon what, Richard Morris, Unskewed polls, your imagination or what?

Quote:
I do not have stats for urban black voters.
So you can't support even geting your numbers from any of the above? WTF!

Quote:
It seems to me that the odds would favor Romney doing slightly better in these precincts than McCain did in 2008. The odds of Romney not getting a single vote in all these precincts still seems astronomical.
3% percent of 1600 plus divisions? Republicans need to stay as far away from math as humanly possible unless it's a fifth grade arithmetic class.

Quote:
There could be a factor I am missing.
Duh!

Quote:
No one on this thread has given it to me.
Seems like a classic case of Romney Delusion Syndrome.
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:47 PM
 
Location: Houston
26,979 posts, read 15,892,870 times
Reputation: 11259
Quote:
Originally Posted by Natural510 View Post
McCain didn't state his job was not to worry about poor people. Theoretically, there could've been some vets who felt a bond with McCain, or they simply liked his record in the Senate. Romney offered no positive qualities to anyone living somewhere like North Philly, and they certainly didn't think he cared about their plight.

Why did 7% of blacks vote for Romney versus 5% for McCain? What was the urban black vote for McCain versus Romney?
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Old 11-12-2012, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Houston
26,979 posts, read 15,892,870 times
Reputation: 11259
Quote:
Originally Posted by ovcatto View Post
2008 was 2008. This is about 2012.



Based upon what, Richard Morris, Unskewed polls, your imagination or what?



So you can't support even geting your numbers from any of the above? WTF!



3% percent of 1600 plus divisions? Republicans need to stay as far away from math as humanly possible unless it's a fifth grade arithmetic class.



Duh!



Seems like a classic case of Romney Delusion Syndrome.
I know you can do better than that. Take off your partisan blinds.
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