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Boehner now will wait till after he is re-elected speaker. Everyone from the janitor to the CEO will be all over the Republicans for letting the tax relief lapse. The Reps will then vote for whatever Obama proposes with the cover of it now being a tax cut rather than a tax increase. It's about as cynical a scenario as one can imagine, but that certainly looks like how it is shaping up.
While there's certainly a chance that we go over the edge (thank you GOP teabagger House) I think there's a greater probability that some sort of crappy deal that no one will like is in the works. It'll go through at the last minute, probably Friday, Dec 28th.
That way, congress will get the weekend PLUS New Year's Eve and New Year's Day to let the heat die down a little. On January 3rd, most Americans will probably still be kinda foggy and not all that concerned with DC tomfoolery. They'll just want to get through the day at work and nurse their hangovers.
Analysts on CNBC raised a great point. At this stage, the most likely path are a offer from Reid/WH with smaller cuts than the deal WH offered JB, and most likely sticking at most to 400k before higher rates kick in.
That won't pass, so than the WH simply must wait until everybody has gotten at least one January, 2013 paycheck and volla: The retain tax rates as is for all $250k and below, with nothing else in the bill, will pass with ease, as Congressmen/women of both parties are besieged by calls, emails, etc..threatening their seats in the next election. And the above scenario should be credited solely to Cantor and his Toilet Party wing, as they are the reason a lesser deal in January will replace what should have been the WH/JB Grand Bargain II of Dec, 2012.
A compromise has to be reached to prevent the big mandated cuts to the military, all the federal research programs, and the federal subsidies.
That's where the fall off the cliff is a thousand feet deep.The average taxpayer won't feel a thing unless his job is lost or threatened, but those who lose their jobs, or face a long layoff will, and neither side has brought this part of it up much. The entire debate has become centered on taxes, partly to camouflage the real bad hit, I believe.
We have a large federal research lab in my home town. It expects to lay off 300 workers, according to today's newspaper if we go over the cliff. The lab's management has already budgeted for the worst-case scenario, and I'm sure other fed-connected outfits have done the same.
Both sides know the real danger, but neither wants to bring it up, of course. Once the trigger trips, all those mandated cuts will start affecting the budgets of all of the above and more, and once folks start losing their jobs, there will be hell to pay. One party in particular does not want more hell rain down on them, but neither will emerge unscathed if the car goes over the edge.
The Senate will possibly come riding to the rescue, I think. They can introduce their version first to forestall the big hard reality landing, and let the House save some face by signing on to the Senate version. The Prez can accept anything that crosses his desk, no matter where it came from first.
Sounds like they will do as I said, come up with yet another Budget Control type of act just to prolong the fiscal cliff. So what that means to me is we'll continue moderate growth next year because investors will still be worried in investing too much capital. Good job Obama and Congress on starting 2013 to another great year of fiscal cliff scenario's and great comprises!
A compromise has to be reached to prevent the big mandated cuts to the military, all the federal research programs, and the federal subsidies.
That's where the fall off the cliff is a thousand feet deep.The average taxpayer won't feel a thing unless his job is lost or threatened, but those who lose their jobs, or face a long layoff will, and neither side has brought this part of it up much. The entire debate has become centered on taxes, partly to camouflage the real bad hit, I believe.
We have a large federal research lab in my home town. It expects to lay off 300 workers, according to today's newspaper if we go over the cliff. The lab's management has already budgeted for the worst-case scenario, and I'm sure other fed-connected outfits have done the same.
Both sides know the real danger, but neither wants to bring it up, of course. Once the trigger trips, all those mandated cuts will start affecting the budgets of all of the above and more, and once folks start losing their jobs, there will be hell to pay. One party in particular does not want more hell rain down on them, but neither will emerge unscathed if the car goes over the edge.
The Senate will possibly come riding to the rescue, I think. They can introduce their version first to forestall the big hard reality landing, and let the House save some face by signing on to the Senate version. The Prez can accept anything that crosses his desk, no matter where it came from first.
It just seems to me that the GOP is incapable of governing. Obama has been overly conciliatory. Boehner tries to make a deal and his own party scuttles the deal.
Boehner could have had a big deficit agreement that went further than Bowles-Simpson, even though Obama had a very strong hand to resist the GOP. Obama's concession would have given away far too much -- raising the age of Social Security and reducing the revenue side, something the GOP wanted. Why didn't it happen?Because Republicans refused to support anything that raises taxes on the very rich.
The only solution is to wait until January and fix what they intentionally broke, when many of the hard right-wingers are out-of-office and a more liberal Senate that won't let Obama give away the store.
I haven't seen anyone mention Obama's statement that we should raise taxes and then wait until "later" to address spending cuts. While I agree that the Republicans should be more proactive in dealing with the fiscal cliff, why isn't anyone tearing into Obama and the Democrats for wanting to increase revenue while not doing anything about the rampant spending. Let's face it, we all know that the "later" will never come if the Republicans cave in on the revenue increase issue.
I haven't seen anyone mention Obama's statement that we should raise taxes and then wait until "later" to address spending cuts. While I agree that the Republicans should be more proactive in dealing with the fiscal cliff, why isn't anyone tearing into Obama and the Democrats for wanting to increase revenue while not doing anything about the rampant spending. Let's face it, we all know that the "later" will never come if the Republicans cave in on the revenue increase issue.
If Obama wants more revenue and the Republicans want spending cuts, the onus to identify which spending cuts rightly falls on the Republicans, not Obama. I can see why the Republicans want Obama to identify the cuts, so they can run in 2014 against all those cuts he offered.
Obama shouldn't negotiate against himself. He need not make cuts just so the GOP can say, "not enough."
But the sticker is revenue and the GOP simply isn't willing to make any meaningful changes that would raise revenue.
Whatever deal they make will probably be a exact copy of the Budget Control Act of 2011 (what engineered the fiscal cliff), so we'll go through this again next year or will we just drive off the cliff? My faith in Obama and Boehner coming up with a deal has soured recently after believing they were becoming allies (or at least being able to deal with each other far better than the previous term) of types, it seems like we aren't going to get the final deal done.
So what do you guys think? Drive off the cliff or Budget Control Act of 2012?
There is no one, NO ONE, in Washington who understands that one must comprise AND get things DONE. Time they all go...both Dems and Reps are equally guilty, as well as the W.H--who does not know the basics of getting compromise in place.
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