Imminent Death of the American shopping mall (drug, Brown, how much)

[Ohiogirl81]

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

And more people are living in sensible living environments like this:

Nothing sensible about people living on top of one another. And those condos or apartments or whatever the hell they are are just as cookie-cutter as the suburb pictured above them.

So, the whole "let me live fifty miles from my job and just drive half an hour to get a gallon of milk" thing is dying.

LMAO. That which never existed cannot die.

Originally Posted by thecoalman

I wouldn't want to live in either of those places....

Ditto!

Originally Posted by 2e1m5a

I wouldn't call myself a hipster but I am a twenty-something that mostly only shops for clothes at thrift stores.

Where do you think those clothes came from before they were donated? Let me guess ... The mall!

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

I mean "exurbs" more than "suburbs". Technically, a city can be a suburb when it's attached to a larger city. For example: Mount Vernon, New York is directly north of New York city, but it kinda-sorta isn't a "suburb". Likewise there is Tukwilla Washington directly south of Seattle with larger houses and all, but it's still not really a "suburb" in the new American sense.

What?!?!!! This makes no sense.

Well, the first suburb probably was outside of Boston, but I won't quibble since you're on such a roll. That was the way things used to be, with cities, suburbs next door and small towns and rural country.

That's pretty much how it still is.

Then about the 50s we started having these masses rows of houses twenty miles away from any city and the "exurbs" over took the classic suburbs. That is where the malls came in, as they were the only shopping option because the cities were too far away.

Still not making any sense.

I thing we're going back to the way it used to be with smaller suburbs near the cities and not the "McMansion" living of the 50s-00s.

My mother will be delighted to know that her 1200 square foot ranch house built in 1955 is a McMansion. LMAO.

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

The suburban thing is a passing fad in the grand scheme of things. For the first 60,000 years of human existence people lived near their jobs and urban centers

News flash: Many people choose to live in the suburbs because their jobs are in the suburbs.

It's not 1920 anymore, honey.

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

Again. There is not enough residential real estate to accommodate a mass move back to urban cores by suburbanites. Are there people doing it? Yes. Are suburbs on the verge of "exinction" as stated in this thread? Absolutely not.

Exactly. If we burned down all the 'burbs and forced people back into the cities (what a hoot that would be), where would everyone live?

Originally Posted by Don Draper

Many suburbs look like ghettos.

And twice as many don't.

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

I am not talking about "urban cores" but about REAL suburbs, the kind that have higher densities and are located only a few miles from the urban core.

Trying to think of a "real" suburb of Philadelphia that's only "a few miles" from the city's core.

Mmmm ... nope. Ain't got nothing. Maybe as the crow flies, or in New Jersey. Even the suburbs bordering the city are a 20-minute train ride or 30-minute drive.

Maybe this works in smaller cities?

not a forty five minute drive through McMansions, McMansions and more and more McMansions to get a gallon of milk.

You do enjoy exaggerating, don't you?

Originally Posted by BBMW

The rise of internet shopping, with it's economies of scale and other cost savings, combined with what is functionally a sales tax exemption is the biggest.

The sales tax exemption isn't going to last much longer.

Originally Posted by Katiana

And hardly anyone ever lived 50 miles from their job and an hour from a gallon of milk.

Not even my aunt and uncle, who own a farm in middle-of-nowhere central Pennsylvania, drive more than 10 minutes for a jug of milk. And in most suburbs, even the way-out ones, have a convenience store at every intersection. Far-flung suburbs around here, too, are built around small towns, crossroads settlements, and other already existing communities.

[texdav]

The market palce is always changing.Certainly being 65 I can remmber the death of town towns in mnay areas some of which have adpted and changed and popualr again. Like jobs some have to be o site and other do not and will suffer from market chnages. Been goig on forever it seems; these changes.

[victorianpunk]

Originally Posted by Ohiogirl81

Nothing sensible about people living on top of one another. And those condos or apartments or whatever the hell they are are just as cookie-cutter as the suburb pictured above them.

This is an example of a house within the city limits of Seattle...can you explain how this is "living in top of one another"?

Exactly. If we burned down all the 'burbs and forced people back into the cities (what a hoot that would be), where would everyone live?

For the tenth times: I am talking about suburbs that are far from the cities, not the "everyone lives either in a bedroom community or in apartments downtown and there is nothing in between" fallacy.

And twice as many don't.

Trying to think of a "real" suburb of Philadelphia that's only "a few miles" from the city's core.

Oh, East Coast. I see

I grew up in New Jersey and I know the "all-cities-are-evil-places-filled-with-crime-high-rents-and-brown-people" attitude very well.

Located just south of Seattle...literally, DIRECTLY SOUTH, is the working suburb of Takwila, WA. That is what I am talking about.


As for exurbs not existing yet no one is moving from them :

For generations, Americans have migrated ever outward from city centers, pulled by affordable housing to places where long commutes were possible because of cheap gasoline. The costs of such migration — in traffic congestion, environmental degradation and increasing addiction to fossil fuels — were played down or ignored.
Recent trends point to a correction, driven in part by the recession, which has made it harder for families to move. The Census Bureau also recently reported that America’s urban population increased by 12.1 percent from 2000 to 2010, faster than the nation’s overall growth rate of 9.7 percent. The exurban tide may be receding.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/op...urbs.html?_r=0


I just don't understand why so many people want to hold onto the old, failed model? Who needs a house that is far too big for them, a yard that takes way to long to cut and a long commute? Who wants to raise kids in a place where there is nothing but houses for miles and nothing to do except the mall (materialism) and drugs?



I can understand living in the country, don't get me wrong. I could easily imagine how nice it could be raising a family in Montana, where a lot of people own horses and kids can grow up hunting, fishing and all that good stuff. I can understand raising a family in a city, where kids can take the mass transit system places and go to shows and all that. But why oh why would anyone in their right mind what to raise a family far in a place DEVOID OF BOTH NATURE AND CULTURE?


If I ever had a family, I would raise it in or near Seattle, so they can get both

[Ohiogirl81]

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

This is an example of a house within the city limits of Seattle...can you explain how this is "living in top of one another"?

Moving the goalposts, are we? Most folks in the urban planning forum would call that "sub-urban" development, a different kettle of fish from the "suburbs."

I grew up in New Jersey and I know the "all-cities-are-evil-places-filled-with-crime-high-rents-and-brown-people" attitude very well.

What in God's name are you talking about? No one has said anything about crime or evil or brown people ... except you. Try to stay on topic, would you please?

Who needs a house that is far too big for them, a yard that takes way to long to cut and a long commute?

I grew up in a 1200 square foot house in the 'burbs. My dad drove 5 minutes to work, or walked 15 minutes. It probably took him about 45 minutes to mow the lawn, and it's good exercise.

I now live in the same size house, but on a smaller lot, where I can mow, trim, and clean up in 30 minutes. It's a 35-minute drive to work -- not downtown, but in one of the city neighborhoods -- but it's Philly and traffic just plain sucks but public transportation is not a practical option.

Oh, well.

But why oh why would anyone in their right mind what to raise a family far in a place DEVOID OF BOTH NATURE AND CULTURE?

Hmmmm. I went to a fantastic play the other night at the local theater, home to a professional theater company. The county historical museum is just down the street from my house; in the other direction is a small zoo. There's plenty of nature here -- lots of trees and beautiful front-yard gardens and I even have rabbits living under my shed. If I want both nature and culture, I can drive about five miles over to Valley Forge National Park.



But back on topic ... If the shopping mall is dying, why can I never find a parking spot?

[Katarina Witt]

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

This is an example of a house within the city limits of Seattle...can you explain how this is "living in top of one another"?

<snip>

If I ever had a family, I would raise it in or near Seattle, so they can get both

The original pictures you posted were a comparison of single family tract homes and a bunch of identical-looking condo buildings.

Go ahead and raise your family in Seattle. I raised mine here, and they're not living under a bridge.

[bobtn]

Originally Posted by dreamofmonterey

The reality is we’re over-built,” says Gerry Mason, executive managing director at property group Savills, who predicts that about 15 per cent of the US’s 1,300 biggest enclosed malls will go out of business over the next five years.
Commercial Real estate agents say that even properties with a future cannot build it on retail alone: services such as dry cleaners, nail salons and sports clubs are likely to occupy many former shops as the face of America’s built environment is redrawn.
Mortgage investors are already growing allergic to retail and two common mall “anchors”, which other tenants need to pull in shoppers, are in trouble: JC Penney and Sears, both department stores, have closed shops and are leaching sales. Last week Barnes & Noble, the last national book chain, said it would close up to 30 per cent of its stores over the next decade.

To clarify, yes, I would eliminate the coastal cities from this. As we know there are more people with money to spend there, middle America is really what I'm looking at.

JCP 4th quarter sales were down 28.4% vs 2011. The Westfield Mall in the town I grew up in (On Long Island Sound) , which as an outdoor mall was the first built decades ago but is throughly modern and indoors now, is in sad shape. They have Westfield refreshment centers where they put 1-2 vending machines in front of spaces they lost tenants in, and with both a JCP & Sears inside, each of them underperforming even for their chains, my hunch is both will join their large chunk of unleased storefronts.

The mall 10 miles from me is in a similar, dire situation. One in Nashville gave up and now leases space out for other purposes altogether.

[BBMW]

I know people who have owned them. A friend of mine married someone who had a Victorian a block from the river. When they sold it they got very big bucks for it, which brings up the problem with your thinking. So close to the city, they get prohibitively expensive for "normal" middle class families. So what do they do? They go further out. You may see some shrinkage at the edges of the exurbs, but the "middle distance" suburbs will be fine. Also, if the market shuns the exurb McMansions, they'll get cheaper. If they get cheaper, they'll be more attractive to more people.

I think where you see suburbs dying, the core city is probably going down the tubes also.

Originally Posted by victorianpunk

Yes, and those houses exist in suburbs right outside of a city just fine. Ever see the houses in Weehawken right outside NYC? Or Kirkland right outside Seattle? I'm saying the exurbs, those bedroom communities full of McMansions that are 30 miles away from where people work and fifteen miles from the nearest grocery store, are a dying breed.




I just can't accept that Americans are all of a sudden okay with clothes shopping at Wal-Mart. When I was a kid, I once had to bring in a receipt for a floor fan because I was spotted by some other kids walking out of K-Mart I had to prove that all I was buying was a fan and that I would NEVER buy clothes there.

I just don't understand how the stigma of being a "K-Mart shopper" vanished so fast in America. Even the poorest of the poor kids did everything they could to avoid buying from there anything except maybe the occasional odd or end, like a fan or dust buster of something. Now people are okay with shopping at Wal-Mart. Sorry, I've been to a Wal-Mart twice and both times I felt like a cross between head of cattle being herded around and an audience member of the Jerry Springer store as I watched the crowd.

The big boxes went (somewhat) upscale. Walmart is one thing, but Target tries harder, and Kohls tries to be a half a step beyond that. No one needs the little boutique type places that are in the malls any more.

[tamajane]

Originally Posted by BBMW

The big boxes went (somewhat) upscale. Walmart is one thing, but Target tries harder, and Kohls tries to be a half a step beyond that. No one needs the little boutique type places that are in the malls any more.

No, it is marketing, those stores are not upscale in any way. The quality of clothing at boutique stores isn't what it once was but it is still miles above those trashy box stores pretending to be something else. The population is going lowbrow, at least some are admitting it but many won't and they just go along with the flow or make excuses because Walmart covered their concrete floor with fake wood. Sheep are as sheep do.

[evilnewbie]

The only thing i miss about the mall are the pretzels... I haven't been for years... It takes me 5 minutes from my suburb to get milk...

[2e1m5a]

Originally Posted by Ohiogirl81

Where do you think those clothes came from before they were donated? Let me guess ... The mall!

Not exactly. Many clothes at thrift stores are originally from the mall but there are clothes from all different times and sources so it is hard to say. Many of the clothes' retailers are probably no longer in business.

I will say that thrift stores will have better quality and more selection if the malls are thriving and doing well but it's not my job to overpay.
I'll save that for the suburban soccer moms and tweens.