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I think the liberal/conservative divide is manufactured by the media. I am more liberal than conservative . . . but as a scientist I have looked at the actual evidence. It is primarily dependent on climate models that have no established validity in predicting climate . We cannot accurately predict even regional climate phenomena like cloud cover (a major factor in the greenhouse models). . . let alone global. It seems the more we actually look at the real research into climate, past, present and future, the more we find that the hype we are seeing is media manufactured.
"The study determined the ‘natural equilibrium’ sea level for CO2 concentrations ranging between ice-age values of 180 parts per million and ice-free values of more than 1,000 parts per million."
And yet we have been told by the media that the current levels (< 400 parts per million) are the highest ever!
In other studies we have groups backing away from parts of the AGW theory, yet how much do we see of this in the mainstream media
"Global Warming Less Extreme Than Feared? New Estimates from a Norwegian Project On Climate Calculations"
"Ocean warming also appears to have stabilized somewhat, despite the fact that CO2 emissions and other anthropogenic factors thought to contribute to global warming are still on the rise"
The predicted continual temperature rise is actually leveling off!
After Earth's mean surface temperature climbed sharply through the 1990s, the increase has leveled off nearly completely. Ocean warming also appears to have stabilized somewhat . . . despite the fact that CO2 emissions and other anthropogenic factors thought to contribute to global warming are still on the rise."
Those of us who adhere to the scientific process would say that the above statement is counter to the postulated hypothesis that rising CO2 levels are the cause of the global ocean and atmospheric temperature rises. We are seeing CO2 continue to rise yet ocean and atmospheric temps have leveled off. To me this presents strong evidence that CO2 levels may not be the causative agent many have loudly proclaimed for the last two decades.
"A number of factors affect the formation of climate development. The complexity of the climate system is further compounded by a phenomenon known as feedback mechanisms, i.e. how factors such as clouds, evaporation, snow and ice mutually affect one another.
This is an admission that we really do not understand the dynamics and interactions of the system we live in and are far from understanding it well enough to make accurate predictions.
UN report admits solar activity may play significant role in global warming
".... A leaked report by a United Nations’ group dedicated to climate studies says that heat from the sun may play a larger role than previously thought.
“[Results] do suggest the possibility of a much larger impact of solar variations on the stratosphere than previously thought, and some studies have suggested that this may lead to significant regional impacts on climate,” reads a draft copy of a major, upcoming report from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). ..."
".... An estimate from NASA said that solar variations caused 25 percent of the 1.1 degree Fahrenheit warming that has been observed over the past century.
“Climate science has the problem of trying to explain why we are now in our 17th year without a significant warming trend. As a result, you are seeing many forecasts of warming for this century being ratcheted down,”...."
The melting ice caps are the most visually potent evidence of climate change . . . but they are subject to extreme fluctuations that we are only beginning to understand. This suggests that the natural causes of climate change are the more likely major forces driving climate change . . . NOT man-made activities and CO2 emissions.
Scientists have debated the causes of this warming, particularly in light of recent instrumental records of both atmospheric and oceanic warming from the region. As the atmosphere and ocean warm, so the ice sheet (holding an equivalent of 5 metres of global sea level rise, locked up in ice) becomes vulnerable to collapse.
Now research led by Cardiff University published in Nature Geoscience has used a unique 12,000 year long record from microscopic marine algae fossils to trace glacial ice entering the ocean along the western Antarctic Peninsula..........................
The study has also shown that this late Holocene atmospheric warming was cyclic (400-500 year long cycles) and linked to the increasing strength of the El Niño -- Southern Oscillation phenomenon (a climate pattern centred in the low latitude Pacific Ocean) demonstrating an equatorial influence on high latitude climate."
So we are finding new natural cycles in the antarctic Ice melts. Ones we did not know about till now.
"Dr Jennifer Pike, School of Earth and Ocean Sciences said: "Our research is helping to understand the past dynamic behaviour of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. The implications of our findings are that the modern observations of ocean-driven warming along the western Antarctic Peninsula need to be considered as part of a natural centennial timescale cycle of climate variability, and that in order to understand climate change along the Antarctic Peninsula, we need to understand the broader climate connections with the rest of the planet.""
"Multi-centenial" cycles and "natural centennial timescale cycle of climate variability"......we are finding multi-century cycles in the antarctic ice formation and melting process that were not even hinted at 10 to 20 years ago yet we have to act now to avert a "warming" trend that is barely a century old if you accept the worst case data sets. I am not averse to acknowledging that climate change is occurring . . . but the evidence that we are the cause or even a significant factor in it is not scientifically established, IMO. We should be focused on adapting to it . . . rather than futilely trying to do something about it. This does NOT have anything to do with pollution and other planet damaging activities which should be eliminated. But we are being distracted by this over-inflated view of our effect on GLOBAL processes. We are like the fleas on a Bull Mastiff arguing over how we can change where he is going.
Last edited by MysticPhD; 04-04-2013 at 05:11 PM..
BTW, the climate HAS been changing. Pretty frequently, as it turns out. Looks like it mostly stays cool, then rises for a little while, then cool again, etc. This keeps happening roughly every 100,000 to 150,000 years.
Most recently, we're in one of those relatively warm periods.
And this latest warm period started about 20,000 years ago as temperatures began rising. They seem to have reached their "higher" level around 10,000 years ago.
People who insist we empower government to spend huge resources and put us all back into the Stone Age to change this, can I ask you something?
Do you actually believe that man did something 20,000 years ago, to make the temperatures rise as they did, and kept doing it for 10,000 years until temperatures levelled off where they are today?
How many SUVs were humans driving 20,000 years ago? Or even 10,000 years ago? How many coal-fired power plants were they running during that period? How many vast swaths of forest did they clear-cut back then? How much oil did they drill? We know for a fact they didn't have catalytic converters or fuel-injection systems at the time. Could this have contributed to man's effect on the climate back then?
And they must have done even more of these filthy, polluting activites around 130,000 years ago. Temperatures spiked even higher then, than they have during the period that started 20,000 years ago.
Now, if we can only find out what man STOPPED doing 120,000 years ago, when temperatures fell back to their relatively cool levels again, we might have a way to control the present crisis the Global Whatever fanatics keep caterwauling about. Can we put the fanatics to work researching the industrial records, newspaper accounts, and internet archives from 110,000 yeas ago, to find out how they did it?
Last edited by Little-Acorn; 04-04-2013 at 05:18 PM..
Yeah, I've heard that BS before. Some dude I went out with worked with an oil company (no, he wasn't an exec), but he kept telling me how much they did for mankind, yada yada, how the world was actually CLEANER and HEALTHIER because of them. You know, the usual bs corporations say to deflect from the horrific damage they're causing to planet earth - we destroy land but we plant trees afterwards, so to speak.
Oh gosh, yes. Much healthier. I mean after all, who can't use a good deformity?
This is a pollution problem . . . NOT a Climate Change problem. We definitely need to stop polluting our environment . . . but CO2 is a plant food . . . NOT a pollutant. Why do some here seem to have difficulty staying with the topic?
All I know is that the closer you are to the poles, the more significantly the effects are felt. Thing are changing here, and people are very concerned. Some animals are no longer migrating to southern climates in winter. It's warmer. It rains instead of snowing in winter much of the time now. It's warmer. Growing season has been extended at both ends and we're in a different zone now. It's warmer. Massive swaths of pine forest has been destroyed by the pine beetles because it's no longer cold enough to kill most of the larvae. It's warmer. We're seeing plants and animals here that have absolutely no business here. It's warmer. I deal with Inuit patients all the time and they're scared to death. Their life is changing drastically. Their villages are slipping into the sea and folks are dying. My neice just did a stint with Medecins Sans Frontieres way up north and kids are dying because for the first time ever, the Medivac planes are unable to land. The ice is too unstable. It's warmer.
So, you can keep your charts and graphs and studies. I know what I know because I can feel it, see it, touch it, hear it and taste it.
You can sit in your barcaloungers down there in Texas and scratch your privates, while drinking Michelob, and proclaiming the leftards are hysterical sheep. Knock yourselves out, but it will still be getting warmer.
All I know is that the closer you are to the poles, the more significantly the effects are felt. Thing are changing here, and people are very concerned. Some animals are no longer migrating to southern climates in winter. It's warmer. It rains instead of snowing in winter much of the time now. It's warmer. Growing season has been extended at both ends and we're in a different zone now. It's warmer. Massive swaths of pine forest has been destroyed by the pine beetles because it's no longer cold enough to kill most of the larvae. It's warmer. We're seeing plants and animals here that have absolutely no business here. It's warmer. I deal with Inuit patients all the time and they're scared to death. Their life is changing drastically. Their villages are slipping into the sea and folks are dying. My neice just did a stint with Medecins Sans Frontieres way up north and kids are dying because for the first time ever, the Medivac planes are unable to land. The ice is too unstable. It's warmer.
So, you can keep your charts and graphs and studies. I know what I know because I can feel it, see it, touch it, hear it and taste it.
You can sit in your barcaloungers down there in Texas and scratch your privates, while drinking Michelob, and proclaiming the leftards are hysterical sheep. Knock yourselves out, but it will still be getting warmer.
Perhaps you missed the point. I am not arguing that the climate is not changing or that it is not getting warmer. I am arguing that the science has NOT shown that WE have anything to DO with it (relative to the actual causes) . . . nor do WE have any ability to DO anything about it. What we need to do is prepare to adapt to whatever changes are in the offing. I agree that pollution is a problem and we should focus on that . . . NOT on something that has little to no effect on the climate change we are experiencing. Such efforts are a waste of money and divert us from the real problems plaguing the planet.
You're doing it again. Global warming is not a daily forecast, it's not whether it's going to rain this afternoon, or there's a freezing 3 days in winter, or not. It's a long-term study of climate. Within that long-term study of climate there are certain definite and studied observations. THE MELTING OF THE POLES, FOR EXAMPLE, THE INCREASE OF THE OCEANS, AND YES IT DOES INCREASE THE NUMBER OF CLIMATE CATASTROPHES.
You know what I've noticed? That right wingnuts are like 4-year-olds. They make decisions that require sophisticated knowledge, based upon what Archie Bunker would think. "Hey yeah, there was a hurricane back in 1919, hahaha, and those dumbaz liberalz think this hurricane proves global warming!"
Without 1 shred of study, without 1 shred of analysis, without even INQUIRING how scientists worldwide (not merely here in the U.S.) KNOW that there is a trend of global warming caused by human beings, right wingers talk as if they knew, while knowing NOTHING. Right wingers care not one iota how scientists worldwide have determined this, they continue to use their Archie Bunker ignorance-based concepts of what they think science is, and that, as they say, is that.
I'm sick of it. Sick of the ignorance. Sick of the BS. Sick of discussing things that require knowledge, with individuals who speak as if they were 4 years old and had a brain equivalent to a 4 year old.
Ok. How long has this long-term change been occurring? The poles and glaciers have been melting and receding for 10,000 years. The Industrial Age is maybe 100 years strong. Please explain.
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