Is the Peoples Republic of China fulfilling Marx's prophecy? (Al Gore, Congress, wage)

[Yeledaf]

Originally Posted by Flieger

Don't forget the fact that China's a big owner of U.S. Government bonds/treasuries worth hundreds of Billions and they also hold more than a Trillion (I think) of U.S. Dollar reserves. Dropping them would be disastrous for the U.S. economy and the biggest losers would be the American people. This has by the media been described as China's "Nuclear Option".

I think you may be missing the point here, to an extent. Why would China seek to bankrupt her largest export customer? Who would buy her cheap goods? How would China "drop" her dollar reserves? Why would restoring our balance-of-trade (if China were to stop exporting to us) make us "losers"?

The beauty of the global economy is that no nation can any longer act in isolation from the rest of the world. Everyone has a vital interest in maintaining the solvency of everyone else. We need China to buy our bonds; China needs us to buy her exports.

Like it or not, we're all in this together.

[Flieger]

Originally Posted by Yeledaf

I think you may be missing the point here, to an extent. Why would China seek to bankrupt her largest export customer? Who would buy her cheap goods? How would China "drop" her dollar reserves? Why would restoring our balance-of-trade (if China were to stop exporting to us) make us "losers"?

The beauty of the global economy is that no nation can any longer act in isolation from the rest of the world. Everyone has a vital interest in maintaining the solvency of everyone else. We need China to buy our bonds; China needs us to buy her exports.

Like it or not, we're all in this together.

She wouldn't want to volutarily, but she probably would in the case of a military confrontation or war with the U.S., as a part of their economic weapon. And how would they drop their U.S. Dollar reservers? Well, they'd put them on the market, of course, which'll depreciate the value of the Dollar even more. As I think I pointed out in the post, damaging trading-relations with the U.S. is nothing China would seek to do right now and certainly not voluntarily, or at least not until they've replaced U.S. as a Super Power, as they need U.S. to buy their cheap goods and U.S. need the Chinese to buy up your debt. That way nobody loses. But there most likely will be a military confrontation sometime in future over something (probably the Taiwan-issue)...or quite simply because U.S. just can't stand a Communist competitor, like the Soviet Union, that'd threaten U.S. interests around the World (*cough*Cold War*cough). Russia's also on the rise, with its energy fortune and military investments, and they're certainly not sympathetic to Washington's plans for Eastern Europe with a missile-defense system. They've even outright threatened with unspecified steps of retaliation. This is not good.

[Huckleberry3911948]

no it is not. china faces real political danger as the people become impowered.
this happened in russia. they lost their ability to control the people. greenspan
spoke on this issue re china. for communism control is everything without it
its collapses as a system.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by Flieger

I think you're right, it's important to hold your allies' backs, especially since U.S. is the only Super Power (Hyper Power) these days. But doing so in this case would definitely hurt American interests. China is not a Third World country like Iraq is (and were prior to the U.S. invasion). The Chinese learned in the 1970's that it's a Capitalist World we live in, and in order to survive in this World, you've gotta adapt. And so they did. At least to a certain point, that is, they're letting foreign companies and interests invest there. The Communist Party still holds all the power, though, and still sort-of run the economy. Even though they're "allowing" Capitalism (or rather market economy) to somehow exist in China, they're just doing it to survive and grow - at heart, they're not sympathetic to Capitalism. Therefore you cannot rely on the Chinese.

I actually believe you're right that the time will come when the Chinese will have to dump their U.S. financial assets. The USD is declining in value, so the Chinese will soon have to take steps on what to do with their U.S. assets.

I'm not sure if the Washington in future, that is another administration and President, will "dare" to interfere in the case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It's too much at risk if you ask me...maybe the risk of losing the Super Power status. The Iraq War is showing no signs of ending, and it's already, as far as I remember, [officially] cost you more than a half Trillion Dollars if I remember correctly. I believe Bush will take military action against in Iran before he leaves office, and this will result in a conflict much worse than Iraq...it'll probably look more like Vietnam.

So in future, you'll be fighting in Afghanistan (perhaps, not much action going on there as far as I know), Iraq and Iran, so taking on China as well will not be an option on the table.

Also, remember that China's a part of an alliance called the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In the case of a war against China, which at the moment is very remote indeed, you could probably also face Russia, and not because they're both full members of the SCO (because the official SCO policy does not involve military alliance, but SCO, especially China and Russia, has still held joint military exercises), but their relations have overall been very good lately, and they've got mutual interests. China's also very hungry for Russian enegy. SCO has also been labeled "anti-NATO" by Western analysts, so in the case of a war, it might not only involve U.S. and China, but perhaps NATO and SCO - something I would call the Third World War. The sad thing is that both Russia and China have "Nuclear Options":

1. Russia is possessing a great fortune of natural resources...natural gas and oil reserves, which will (and currently is) be used as a political weapon in future when the oil dries up and the World, especially oil-hungry countries such as U.S., will look for alternative sources of energy. That's their first nuclear option. Their second one is their real and very huge nuclear arsenal, which in fact is the largest in the World. They've got intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that could reach U.S. soil.

2. China's a large holder of U.S. financial assets such as U.S. Government bonds and treasuries. They also hold more than a Trillion in U.S. Dollar reserves. This is what the media calls their "Nuclear Option". And these assets, similar to Russia's usage of energy as a political weapon, can (and sooner or later will I reckon) be used as a political weapon. Then there's the fact that U.S. is heavily dependent on Chinese-made products to satisfy the American consumption...if China were to drop their U.S. Government financial assets and cut the export of food and other products to U.S. (not voluntarily, of course, as they need it, but as a "weapon" in the midst of a war), imagine what that would do...I really can't imagine myself. Their second nuclear option is their real nuclear warheads, which can reach U.S. soil. Their third nuclear option, and this is just my own opinion, is their new space missile, which has sparked concern in Washington as they successfully destroyed one of their old weather satellites with it in a test. That missile could very well be used against American satellites to cut off [military] communication systems and other infrastructural systems which rely on satellites.

Well, that day, that sorrow. I really dislike the fact that these things can happen in future, especially since I want to relocate to the U.S. and build a career/family there.

First off excellent post. Very insightful
The only thing I disagree with is Russia and U.S. going to war anytime soon. Russia wants money not war, at least for now. I give Putin credit he created an environment where people are making money. Don't think he wants to blow that. So if we to go to war with china for what ever reason. I believe Russia will be more than happy to supply china with weapons and oil but not actually get involved militarily. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if in the end if
Russia supplied both the U.S. and China with oil for their war. Why not? They'll make a killing (no pun intended.) Actually further more once the U.S. and China punch each other out. Russia will step up with a nice new shiny military and take back some territories from china and perhaps Alaska from the U.S. Hey it all speculation here but it's not impossible.

As for Any of us using nuclear weapons MAD still stands. I think only a fool would use these weapons on countries that can fight back. Whether the leaders of countries are communist, socialist, or capitalist by politics. They still are also fathers, sons, daughter, mothers. They know they will die or there children or grandchildren will die. I don't think anyone except for a religious extremist (whether Jewish, Muslim or Christian) would opt to use the bomb.


last thing good luck with relocating to the U.S. By the way you articulate your argument you seem pretty intelligent. We all need smarter people.
Again good luck
Baystater.

[ArizonaBear]

One thing that most of us have overlooked is the other 800 lb gorilla in China's part of the world--------India.

In many regards: both countries are pretty evenly matched.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

One thing that most of us have overlooked is the other 800 lb gorilla in China's part of the world--------India.

In many regards: both countries are pretty evenly matched.

I'm more worried about India and Pakistan lobing Nukes at each other in the near future.

[Yeledaf]

Originally Posted by Flieger

She wouldn't want to volutarily, but she probably would in the case of a military confrontation or war with the U.S., as a part of their economic weapon. And how would they drop their U.S. Dollar reservers? Well, they'd put them on the market, of course, which'll depreciate the value of the Dollar even more. As I think I pointed out in the post, damaging trading-relations with the U.S. is nothing China would seek to do right now and certainly not voluntarily, or at least not until they've replaced U.S. as a Super Power, as they need U.S. to buy their cheap goods and U.S. need the Chinese to buy up your debt. That way nobody loses. But there most likely will be a military confrontation sometime in future over something (probably the Taiwan-issue)...or quite simply because U.S. just can't stand a Communist competitor, like the Soviet Union, that'd threaten U.S. interests around the World (*cough*Cold War*cough). Russia's also on the rise, with its energy fortune and military investments, and they're certainly not sympathetic to Washington's plans for Eastern Europe with a missile-defense system. They've even outright threatened with unspecified steps of retaliation. This is not good.

I'm sorry, but the only answer you gave to my questions was that China would "sell" her dollar reserves. So someone else would buy them, and China would take the loss? How would that benefit her or hurt us? And if we were at war with China, as you predict, why would we care?

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by baystater

I'm more worried about India and Pakistan lobing Nukes at each other in the near future.

I bet that China is petrified as well------it abuts both countries.

Which may also explain why the 'Taiwan' rhetoric seems muted as of late.

[boiseguy]

Originally Posted by Yeledaf

I think you may be missing the point here, to an extent. Why would China seek to bankrupt her largest export customer? Who would buy her cheap goods? How would China "drop" her dollar reserves? Why would restoring our balance-of-trade (if China were to stop exporting to us) make us "losers"?

The beauty of the global economy is that no nation can any longer act in isolation from the rest of the world. Everyone has a vital interest in maintaining the solvency of everyone else. We need China to buy our bonds; China needs us to buy her exports.

Like it or not, we're all in this together.

china has an emerging middle class that is more and more capable of buying their own goods.. the more of a middle class that surfaces.. the less demand china has for the US market... We're stuck in the mindset that everything is the way it is.. and that it doesn't change.. America is the one that has sat here apathetically.. allowing trade deficits with numerous countries.. not just allowing them.. but fostering it for over 2-3 decades... when your competition in the world market knows you every consistant move.. its easy to pull a fast one to get ahead.. and the threat of china doing such is very real... holding onto US bonds.. if the dollar is decreasing means china is losing money on that investment.. so other currencies and markets are looking better to invest in.. therefore dumping US bonds..
what would you do if your investment was going down? and you had the option to sell it before it has the potential to crash.. and trade it in for another option? you'd do it in a heartbeat...
You're right we're all in this together... but we aren't partners and its not all pretty and pink... we're competitors in a world market.. if third world nations are rising that means someone is losing... there is only so much capital and resources on this planet...

[Flieger]

Originally Posted by baystater

First off excellent post. Very insightful
The only thing I disagree with is Russia and U.S. going to war anytime soon. Russia wants money not war, at least for now. I give Putin credit he created an environment where people are making money. Don't think he wants to blow that. So if we to go to war with china for what ever reason. I believe Russia will be more than happy to supply china with weapons and oil but not actually get involved militarily.

I'll agree, it's actually pretty far-fetched that Russia will get involved directly if U.S. finds itself in war with China. However, Russian-U.S. relations have been bad lately, almost as bad as they were during the Cold War years, and it's got pretty much to do with the U.S. plans of a missile-defense system in two Eastern European countries bordering Russia. The Russians seem to think it's directed at them, that is, intended to provide U.S. with nuclear primacy over Russia (that is, provide you with the ability to launch a first-strike) and as I wrote in another thread, there is indeed a paranoia in Russia, especially amongst Nationalist politicians in the State Duma, that U.S. intends to sometime in future attack Russia and steal her natural resources). They argue that this missile-defense system is a big step towards that goal, while U.S. insists it'll only be used to defend U.S. and its allies against missiles from rogue-nations such as Iran and North Korea. But I'll still fully agree with you that the Russians are now out to make money, not waste money on war, but with that said, I do believe, as you also stated, they would sell the Chinese advanced weaponry and military systems in case a war erupted...just like they sold the Iranians Tor-41s, despite U.S. pressure not to sell anything to her enemies. Unless the relations between U.S. and Russia go even much lower than they are now, I don't think there's a great risk for war between these two big nations.

Originally Posted by baystater

Actually further more once the U.S. and China punch each other out. Russia will step up with a nice new shiny military and take back some territories from china and perhaps Alaska from the U.S. Hey it all speculation here but it's not impossible.

That's true, it's impossible to say what the Russian Bear would do if the World's only Super Power and another emerging Super Power battled each other out until they went bankrupt and exhausted...they might just do what you say.

Originally Posted by baystater

As for Any of us using nuclear weapons MAD still stands. I think only a fool would use these weapons on countries that can fight back. Whether the leaders of countries are communist, socialist, or capitalist by politics. They still are also fathers, sons, daughter, mothers. They know they will die or there children or grandchildren will die. I don't think anyone except for a religious extremist (whether Jewish, Muslim or Christian) would opt to use the bomb.

You're probably right, U.S. security experts would know better than to promote the usage of nuclear arms on nations such as China and Russia, that can fight back and give U.S. a hard time. Iran is another matter - they can fight back in case U.S. sends in a few divisions through nations such as Turkey, Iraq or Azerbaijan, but I don't think they could do very much harm to U.S. at home. They could harm U.S. interests throughout the World, especially since they control a portion of the World's remaining oil-supply. It's been reported that U.S. officials have said they might've to use nuclear arms to get to the Iranian nuclear facilities that are located underground, and then there's the President's well-known comment "All options are on the table" - "All" could also mean nuclear arms, or whatever his experts advice him of using, but he's probably primarily referring to the general military option. But then again, Putin has recently made some comments which were directed at West, in which he seriously warned against the use of force in the region of Middle East, Iran in particular. Some have interpreted his words as saying "If you attack Iran, you attack Russia". Who knows if he really did mean that and will be true to his words?

Originally Posted by baystater

last thing good luck with relocating to the U.S. By the way you articulate your argument you seem pretty intelligent. We all need smarter people.
Again good luck
Baystater.

Thanks very much! I won't be relocating within the next 4-5 years, though, unfortunately, because I've got plans to first get a Bachelor's degree in Political science here within a year or so (working ATM)...I just want some academical background before I move, I don't want to land myself with some boring low-waged retail store job or whatever when I'm in the U.S., at least not permanently. And then there's the issue of getting a Green Card and sooner or later getting American citizenship. Well, the immigration laws and rules might've changed in my favour the day I do decide to relocate, so we'll see.