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It's hard to say who would be on top economically in the year 2099 when this century is close to ending. I don't think it will be China. I could see them becoming top dog in the near future & then declining around the year 2035 due to factors some here have already listed. India will probably replace them for a few decades and then follow suit with decline.
I think if Africa could ever really be stabilized, that continent could become a huge economic powerhouse way down the road. It's a mostly untapped market with abundant resources.
The outlook for the US I think is bleak in the year 2099. It will probably closely resemble current day Mexico with a huge underclass of people working for paltry wages, and a small elite ruling class. There will be a tiny middle class who exist to serve the elite.
Wife, sprout, and I were watching "Hero" last night. Damn awesome movie.
I keep telling my son to study Chinese, because the 20th was the American Century and the 21st is the Chinese Century. My wife argued that the USA is still far more innovative,etc., which I agree with, but given the political foolishness,etc. I think we will have a hard time dominating the world as we do now. China's economy is about to pass ours as the world's largest, and I think the Chinese people are hungrier than we are to build a world class country. I think American Exceptionalism has made us self-satisfied, and we are not currently inclined towards grand public investments (railroads, airports, bridges, buildings,etc.), whereas China is building one gleaming metropolis after another. We will not fade from the scene, but we will become more and more like Europe, a great place to visit and decent place to live, but not the leading edge of commerce and innovation, nor the world's most powerful nation.
What do you think?
China has to first do what Europe and then the US did.....and that is become imperialist and transfer the wealth of other nations to its benefit. China has an export driven economy, with comparatively weak per capita internal consumption relative to the US. Hence, if the US economy, its leading export market, crashes, China will suffer because it does not have the internal rates of consumption to make up the difference. China's boom is also associated with over building. There are billions of square footage of empty residential and commercial building in empty cities created to one day house millions. They are creating supply before the demand is there....hence...they are stealing from future production and its helping to maximize present growth.....but that is an unsustainable path. There is more....but I do not feel like expanding on it right now.
That said.....I think the world will take a big giant step back this century and human suffering will be seen on a scale never before experienced, leading to a massive reduction in the number of humans on this planet. I hate to be gloom and doom and I pray that I am wrong.....but that is were I see trends heading.
Japan in 2013: very low birthrate which "kills" demand for stuff.
They are between a rock and a hard place there.
-A large part of the caloric intake comes from over-fished places.
-Increasing competition for that food from countries like China, Korea etc.
-So, a lower population might be the lesser problem than feeding a larger population.
(The devil hiding there is that they can get more food by opening trade further to the US and Canada etc. but then that pressures thier indigenous farming....catch-22.)
-Barriers of entry to growing asian markets, especially for Japan whom is not widely liked due to history limits thier ability to participate which is a big competitive blow.
China has to first do what Europe and then the US did.....and that is become imperialist and transfer the wealth of other nations to its benefit. China has an export driven economy, with comparatively weak per capita internal consumption relative to the US. Hence, if the US economy, its leading export market, crashes, China will suffer because it does not have the internal rates of consumption to make up the difference. China's boom is also associated with over building. There are billions of square footage of empty residential and commercial building in empty cities created to one day house millions. They are creating supply before the demand is there....hence...they are stealing from future production and its helping to maximize present growth.....but that is an unsustainable path. There is more....but I do not feel like expanding on it right now.
That said.....I think the world will take a big giant step back this century and human suffering will be seen on a scale never before experienced, leading to a massive reduction in the number of humans on this planet. I hate to be gloom and doom and I pray that I am wrong.....but that is were I see trends heading.
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Uh; maybe or maybe not with mass killings or starving. Tho I DO agree with you the world will see LESS people in the future because more and more countries will be LOSING people like Germany and Japan are doing in 2013 because they don't make enough babies. More countries WILL being going down that road; even Mexico's birthrate is dropping like a rock.
Uh; maybe or maybe not with mass killings or starving. Tho I DO agree with you the world will see LESS people in the future because more and more countries will be LOSING people like Germany and Japan are doing in 2013 because they don't make enough babies. More countries WILL being going down that road; even Mexico's birthrate is dropping like a rock.
The question is does the world have enough resources to support the consumption habits of 5 billion or so people living under capitalism.....which thrives on over consumption to fuel economic growth? The answer to that is NO! If our knowledge does not stay one step ahead of natures attempt to correct the imbalance caused by humans, then many will parish. I, for one, have my money on mother nature. Already antibiotics are losing their effectiveness as many forms of bacteria have evolved defenses against antibiotics. Supplies of Fresh water are in danger as aquifers are drying up. Easy oil extraction is waning, as the amount of energy that is required to extract oil is trending upwards which will lead to rising prices. Top soil is being eroded wind and tilling. More countries will acquire nuclear weapons and eventually our experimentation and advancement is science will be used to control scarce resources......causing wars and expiring lives.
Wife, sprout, and I were watching "Hero" last night. Damn awesome movie.
I keep telling my son to study Chinese, because the 20th was the American Century and the 21st is the Chinese Century.
People thought Argentina would become a world power in the 20th century... so much for that...
When there are decades to go, a great deal of things can happen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
My wife argued that the USA is still far more innovative,etc., which I agree with, but given the political foolishness,etc. I think we will have a hard time dominating the world as we do now. China's economy is about to pass ours as the world's largest,
China is still, essentially, the subcontractor of America.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
and I think the Chinese people are hungrier than we are to build a world class country.
Look up Chinese ghost cities.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
I think American Exceptionalism has made us self-satisfied, and we are not currently inclined towards grand public investments (railroads, airports, bridges, buildings,etc.),
We're too busy pissing the money away playing nation builder. Things are starting to crumble. Things will continue to crumble. At some point it'll be too hard to cover up and the country will have to divert funding. American's, in general, think they have it better than they really do, but that's nothing new.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
whereas China is building one gleaming metropolis after another.
Again, look up Chinese ghost cities. Wouldn't say they're gleaming...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiddlehead
We will not fade from the scene, but we will become more and more like Europe, a great place to visit and decent place to live, but not the leading edge of commerce and innovation, nor the world's most powerful nation.
What do you think?
Have you visited Europe? You have a very clear misunderstanding of Europe if that's how you see it.
Europe is far from the doom and gloom portrayed in the media in the US. We won't become "more and more like Europe" with the way things are going, we'll be worse.
China is not sustainable. I believe they have a higher chance of imploding than become a world super power.
Right. As China becomes more influential and powerful in the world, their citizens are going to demand more representation and higher wages. The cheap industries will then move elsewhere. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
Just another thought:
I recall an Indian professor said it is impossible for Indians to work as hard as Chinese, because tropical weather could kill those who work 10 hours a day.
Most "3rd world countries" are tropical and China is an exception. When I was in Egypt, I noticed people come out late at night and there are people everywhere at 3 am (not a holiday). This is impossible in China.
People thought Argentina would become a world power in the 20th century... so much for that...
When there are decades to go, a great deal of things can happen.
China is still, essentially, the subcontractor of America.
Look up Chinese ghost cities.
We're too busy pissing the money away playing nation builder. Things are starting to crumble. Things will continue to crumble. At some point it'll be too hard to cover up and the country will have to divert funding. American's, in general, think they have it better than they really do, but that's nothing new.
Again, look up Chinese ghost cities. Wouldn't say they're gleaming...
Have you visited Europe? You have a very clear misunderstanding of Europe if that's how you see it.
Europe is far from the doom and gloom portrayed in the media in the US. We won't become "more and more like Europe" with the way things are going, we'll be worse.
China is not sustainable. I believe they have a higher chance of imploding than become a world super power.
China may have a few "ghost cities" among 1000 overcrowded cities...
The question is does the world have enough resources to support the consumption habits of 5 billion or so people living under capitalism.....which thrives on over consumption to fuel economic growth? The answer to that is NO! If our knowledge does not stay one step ahead of natures attempt to correct the imbalance caused by humans, then many will parish. I, for one, have my money on mother nature. Already antibiotics are losing their effectiveness as many forms of bacteria have evolved defenses against antibiotics. Supplies of Fresh water are in danger as aquifers are drying up. Easy oil extraction is waning, as the amount of energy that is required to extract oil is trending upwards which will lead to rising prices. Top soil is being eroded wind and tilling. More countries will acquire nuclear weapons and eventually our experimentation and advancement is science will be used to control scarce resources......causing wars and expiring lives.
ITA in regards to betting on mother nature. I have always told people that I think "the earth" will be what will destroy our country, basically she will reject us as a species and re-invent herself due to us competing and warring with each other continuously. It has been done in past epochs and I am certain it will happen again. Another species will evolve as the dominant species, maybe humanlike, maybe not. Who knows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordSquidworth
People thought Argentina would become a world power in the 20th century... so much for that...
When there are decades to go, a great deal of things can happen.
China is still, essentially, the subcontractor of America.
Look up Chinese ghost cities.
We're too busy pissing the money away playing nation builder. Things are starting to crumble. Things will continue to crumble. At some point it'll be too hard to cover up and the country will have to divert funding. American's, in general, think they have it better than they really do, but that's nothing new.
Again, look up Chinese ghost cities. Wouldn't say they're gleaming...
Have you visited Europe? You have a very clear misunderstanding of Europe if that's how you see it.
Europe is far from the doom and gloom portrayed in the media in the US. We won't become "more and more like Europe" with the way things are going, we'll be worse.
China is not sustainable. I believe they have a higher chance of imploding than become a world super power.
I think you make a valid comparison of China in the bold above. I work in contracting and China is like America's subcontractor lol. We tell them what we want and then they do what we say, if we don't like how they do it, they change it, we are constantly in their business trying to force them to "comply" with world regulations on labor, commerce, and trade. That is a great way to look at it.
Too bad they are now becoming a "lesser subcontractor" to us now.
I also agree with the poster who mentioned Africa. I do think that if Africa can unite and keep the Chinese from taking over various countries on the continent, that it could be the rising force in the new age. I think it will take another hundred or 150 years though before an "African Union" (as I feel they need to be united in an EU sort of fashion to make it happen) can become a force in the world. But much of he continent is like India, they work hard, know how to subsist on what they create, they are thirsty for knowledge and an opportunity and aren't culturally trained to depend on a communist government to take care of them at any portion of their lives. I do think that many African nations, (and I will even include Haiti in this instance) are too dependent on foreign aid and that this can be similar to communism in regards to cultural habits relating to work and innovation, but the aid is easier to get rid of than the communist government.
Africa is the last great under-developed spans of soil on the planet. It is also the fastest growing continent and has a younger population than the other continents.
While all the attention has been paid to the Middle East for the past decade and a half, Africa has been quietly and massively changing.
And right now, it seems only the Chinese are aware of this. Most of the African nations have colonial pasts, which have tied them to their former empires- the French, Dutch, British, Belgians, Germans and Italians all left their languages and cultures behind when they departed, and the Americans also have left our ways in Africa with our extractive industries, interventions, missionary and charitable efforts there.
It would seem America, as the strongest power in the world, would have all the advantages right now, but we have turned to navel-gazing, all concerned and squabbling eternally over our problems at home and abroad.
The Chinese have quietly capitalized on our disarray. They're the ones the African nations are going to for loans, development partnerships, and industrial capitalization.
There are vast riches yet to be found, developed and exploited, and there is also a vast under-served bunch of people who want all that and more. The Chinese have been busy creating markets for everything and building the ground work for more and better to come while we've been acting like a bunch of kids fighting on the playground.
We view a lot of Africa with suspicion and hostility, while the Chinese open their arms to them. The Chinese offer most of Africa ways to become stable, to improve their societies, and to enrich their nations. They have no problems with working with different races, religions, and cultures there.
Stand by.
South and Middle America is next up for the Chinese. The American continents have been the United State's stomping grounds for over a century, ever since Teddy Roosevelt declared we are the protectors of the Americas.
But we have let many nations there languish, and they, too, want a share of 21st Century progress. The Chinese will show up in their own good time and simply help give them what they want if we don't.
The sooner we pull our collective heads out of our butts and start looking at farther distances the better off we and our children will be. Time is short, and the rest of the world isn't going to patiently wait for us to get our act together while the Middle Kingdom is already in gear and moving forward.
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