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But my point was that support for gay marriage is increasing faster in the southern states than perhaps anywhere else. It's just that fewer people initially supported the idea (back when a majority in all states opposed it).
While the rate of growth in the South might well be greater than even in the Northeast, it's starting from a much lower base.
Ex. 1 person supports gay marriage in Mississippi and grows to 2 is a 100% increase in support.
3 million support gay marriage in Massachusetts and grows to 4 million is a 33% increase.
It sounds good for Mississippi, but the reality for the gay couple in MS isn't perceptively changed! Biloxi will not be "San Francisco on the Gulf" anytime soon!
While the rate of growth in the South might well be greater than even in the Northeast, it's starting from a much lower base.
Ex. 1 person supports gay marriage in Mississippi and grows to 2 is a 100% increase in support.
3 million support gay marriage in Massachusetts and grows to 4 million is a 33% increase.
It sounds good for Mississippi, but the reality for the gay couple in MS isn't perceptively changed! Biloxi will not be "San Francisco on the Gulf" anytime soon!
I mean in terms of actual percentage points.
Between 2004 and 2012, support in Rhode Island increased by 8 percentage points.
9 percentage points in California during that time.
11 points in New Jersey.
16 in Alabama.
14 in South Carolina.
16 in Mississippi.
And 21 in South Dakota (not southern but very conservative nonetheless).
I don't think gay marriage is a social conservatism/liberalism litmus test any longer. It's becoming a mainstream view.
While the rate of growth in the South might well be greater than even in the Northeast, it's starting from a much lower base.
Ex. 1 person supports gay marriage in Mississippi and grows to 2 is a 100% increase in support.
3 million support gay marriage in Massachusetts and grows to 4 million is a 33% increase.
It sounds good for Mississippi, but the reality for the gay couple in MS isn't perceptively changed! Biloxi will not be "San Francisco on the Gulf" anytime soon!
Precisely.
A real-world example - when crime rates fall, where do they fall the fastest? In places where they were among the worst to being with.
Another real-world example - which countries have the fastest-growing economies? Undeveloped-but-developing countries that are way behind the developed world.
The rapidity of their gains simply speaks to the fact that they were behind the curve to being with.
10-22-2013, 04:08 PM
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n/a posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee
I mean in terms of actual percentage points.
Between 2004 and 2012, support in Rhode Island increased by 8 percentage points.
9 percentage points in California during that time.
11 points in New Jersey.
16 in Alabama.
14 in South Carolina.
16 in Mississippi.
And 21 in South Dakota (not southern but very conservative nonetheless).
I don't think gay marriage is a social conservatism/liberalism litmus test any longer. It's becoming a mainstream view.
How is this anything but expected? If these states actually keep up that pace, it'll be impressive.
What I suspect will happen is that it will slow down and eventually hit a bit of a wall, increasing only gradually as old voters die off and young ones take their place.
This whole thing reminds me of how people look at the first day or two of a kickstarter campaign and conclude that it's going to be a roaring success, only to have support slow to a trickle after the initial strong results.
While most young people do support it, very few actually vote for it. Very few actually vote at all (talking about those who are of legal age to do so). So if they truly did care, then they would be out voting in favor of it, but despite those polls that gay activists like to link to so much, voter turnout says otherwise.
Furthermore, most young people only support it because they think it's "cool". It's a trend now, makes them feel special among their peers. I know several young people who only support gay marriage because Lady Gaga and Jay Z do. Eventually this will die down and they will find some new cool trend to follow and support for awhile until that dies down and they find another one. This is how young people are.
Got any evidence to support that? My son supports SSM and he doesn't like Lady GagGag and Jay Z.
A real-world example - when crime rates fall, where do they fall the fastest? In places where they were among the worst to being with.
Another real-world example - which countries have the fastest-growing economies? Undeveloped-but-developing countries that are way behind the developed world.
The rapidity of their gains simply speaks to the fact that they were behind the curve to being with.
Not "precisely." More like "wrong."
I'm talking about the actual proportion of the voting population supporting gay marriage.
For example, 42% of Rhode Islanders supported gay marriage in 2004. By 2012, 50% supported gay marriage. That's a difference of 8 percentage points.
In 2004, 18% of Mississippians supported gay marriage. By 2004, that figure was 34%. That's a difference of 16 percentage points.
I was happy that my old home state of New Jersey finally got on the bandwagon. As far as my "adopted" state of North Carolina goes - like most of the South on progressive social issues, it will be dragged "whining and complaining" bringing up the rear, as usual!
I'm talking about the actual proportion of the voting population supporting gay marriage.
For example, 42% of Rhode Islanders supported gay marriage in 2004. By 2012, 50% supported gay marriage. That's a difference of 8 percentage points.
In 2004, 18% of Mississippians supported gay marriage. By 2004, that figure was 34%. That's a difference of 16 percentage points.
So these states are closing ground fast.
Look, I get that you are terribly impressed that in 2012, Mississippi still lagged six points behind where Rhode Island was in 2004.
In 2012, when all the laughably ridiculous warnings of calamity - harm to children!, marriage will fall apart!, churches will be forced to marry gays! - had been proven false by eight years of same-sex marriage being legal in Massachusetts (and, for shorter periods, in several other jurisdictions), barely a third of Mississippians supported same-sex marriage. Rhode Island was at the fore, rejecting the alarmism. Mississippi is bringing up the rear, scratching its collective head in wonder that the marriage apocalypse never happened.
It's trivially easy to come around to supporting something long after it has become widely acceptable. It is a much more difficult thing to be among the vanguard of supporters.
But, hey, don't hurt yourself patting Mississippi on the back for being a lagging follower still way behind most of the country, just because it is lagging less than it did in the past...
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Biloxi will not be "San Francisco on the Gulf" anytime soon! 
