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Old 01-28-2014, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
22,190 posts, read 19,466,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OICU812 View Post
I'd rather they resign from office like Palin and Dole did, rather then ignore their duties to the office they were elected to, while campaigning all over the country. Even when they are tending to their duties, their actions are 100% political and a self-serving extension of their political campaign.

'Resign to Run' Would Alter White House Field | News & Analysis | The Rothenberg Political Report

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has missed more than half of the votes in the 110th Congress. Sens. Joseph Biden (D-Del.), Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) have each missed at least a third of this year’s votes. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) has missed 18 percent.

GOP Reps. Duncan Hunter (Calif.), Tom Tancredo (Colo.) and Ron Paul (Texas) have missed more than a quarter of the votes in the House, while Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) has missed about 12 percent, the best percentage of a sitting legislator running for president.
If you call on those from both sides to do the same (that also goes for Christie, Cruz, Rubio, etc if they run) that is fair. If not it's just partisan nonsense.
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:01 AM
 
5,391 posts, read 7,231,338 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OICU812 View Post
I'd rather they resign from office like Palin and Dole did, rather then ignore their duties to the office they were elected to, while campaigning all over the country. Even when they are tending to their duties, their actions are 100% political and a self-serving extension of their political campaign.
You're ignoring the fact that Palin served as governor of Alaska while campaigning all over the country for VP as part of McCain's ticket. Palin did not resign office rather than keep it and campaign for a different office. She resigned in 2009 after she had lost in the 2008 election.

Almost every single president and vice president we've elected since JFK (I didn't look before him, so this is an arbitrary starting point) was serving in elected office such as Senator or governor at the time they were campaigning for the higher office. Obviously this is not a big deal for most Americans. It seems that you're contorting just to make Palin's resignation seem the more honorable - when in fact she didn't even do as you suggest she did, which is resigning first, before running for higher office!
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Old 01-28-2014, 09:13 PM
 
22,661 posts, read 24,605,343 times
Reputation: 20339
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
Brian Schweitzer, Russ Feingold, Howard Dean, or Elizabeth Warren (in that order) would be good choices if Democrats want to shake things up a bit in 2016, assuming by then Obama's approval ratings are in the 20's and his entire agenda is widely perceived to have been a failure. That's very plausible, considering that Obama's ratings are closely mirroring Bush's so far in the second term.

More conventional possibilities include Cuomo, O'Malley, Biden, and Hickenlooper, if Democrats want more of a continuation of the Obama years, assuming that Obama recovers his ratings and his Presidency or at least holds his own by 2016. It is possible for Obama to do so, but it would be a first; every second-term President who had ratings as low as Obama's are at this point did not recover.



If you compare pictures, Warren looks quite a bit younger than Hillary, despite an age difference of only 2 years. My guess is that the stress of being First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State over 20 years ages a person faster than being an academic and a Senator. I would also guess that Warren ages a bit slower than Hillary all other things being equal.

Jerry Brown would be 78 upon inauguration, so he would be a very old President, but he's very spry, energetic, and healthy, so I think he'd make it just fine through four years and his age probably wouldn't be an issue. People don't raise the age issue with spry candidates, with Ron Paul in 2012 being a prime example. A prime example of the opposite was McCain in 2008, who appeared geriatric and tired, and the age question was raised often, despite McCain in 2008 being 5 years younger than Paul in 2012.

All that said, however, I'd be surprised if he did run.



In 2024 he'll be 67 years old and will have either served for 13 years as Governor or have been out of office for 5 years (if he chooses to stand down after 8 years). I don't really see what advantage Cuomo would have in 2024 that he wouldn't have in 2016. If you ask me, he'll be running in either 2016 or 2020. If Hillary doesn't run, I think he'd be in a great position to run for the nomination; whether he'd get it or not in the 2016 political climate is a very good question.



That's rather presumptuous; it may humble you to take a look at what Republicans were saying about the Democratic hopes to win the White House back in 2006.



Obama wouldn't win even if he could run for a third term. A poll late last year found that if the election were held in November 2013 rather than November 2012 Obama would have actually lost to Romney, and this is despite Romney being a very weak candidate with a very weak message that did not jive with the mood of the people at all, and being one of the few candidates people hated more than Obama in 2012.

Keep in mind that despite what you hear from his supporters, Obama barely won in 2012 with only a 3 point margin under false pretenses (c.f. Obamacare). If the same election were held in 2013 he would have lost by 4 points, which is perhaps the best argument ever made for annual elections.

At any rate, applying what is called a uniform national swing of 7 points, that extra margin for Romney in 2013 would have been enough to flip Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Minnesota to the Republican column. The actual results would vary a bit from this due to elasticity and local issues, but there is a comfortable 331 electoral votes there for Romney in 2013, which is almost exactly the number Obama got in 2012 (332) . The point is, though, that it's more than enough to win the Presidency, which stands in stark contrast to the situation in 2012.

Considering all this, and also considering that every second-term President with ratings as low as Obama has now had much lower ratings by the time the next election rolled around, I would say that barring some miraculous recovery Obama would lose pretty badly in 2016 if he could run and was willing to run.




The glassy-eyed Osamabots would gladly vote for Dear Leader Hussein over and over and over again.
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:47 PM
 
5,719 posts, read 6,448,812 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itshim View Post
The war drums appear to be beating louder and more rambunctious within the excitement of the possibility of anointing Hillary as their crowning candidate before even the ribbon is cut within the past week.

But with all of the animosity surrounding the possibility and likleyhood of her making a final run for it (reminiscent of Mitt Romney)... the what if factor has to come into the equation at some point...

So who is the next one in line for the party? Who can the Democrats depend on if Hillary decides that her time is up?
I do not expect her to be the nominee. I would love her to be president, but I do not see it. I don't really see any heir apparent. 2016 should be wide open for both parties. Should be interesting.

Hillary is my preference. If not her, Martin O'Malley. Not Cuomo.
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:48 PM
 
18,836 posts, read 37,368,760 times
Reputation: 26469
Weiner is looking for a place to work...his wife will stand by him...
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Old 01-28-2014, 10:53 PM
 
5,719 posts, read 6,448,812 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smash255 View Post
There is a difference between leaving office to run for something else and just quitting. The comparison is ridiculous.
Right. Hillary vacated her senate seat to be Secretary of State after 8 years in the senate. Then she left that post after one term -- it is completely normal for a cabinet head to leave after one term.

Palin did not even finish a single 4-year term as governor. I do not fault her for that. It was the best career move for her and she has flourished since then. But let's call it what it is.
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:09 PM
 
800 posts, read 781,436 times
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I'm for Elizabeth Warren. I really hope she runs. I think Hillary is too much of a continuation of the old guard in Washington. Too much baggage wether she gets elected or not.
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:11 PM
 
2,234 posts, read 1,759,438 times
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Obama had FBI and Benghazi gate, Hillary had Benghazi gate, and Chris Christie had a bridge closed. I still think that Chris Christie still has a shot to beat Hillary. His scandal will be water under the bridge by 2016 if he plays his cards right. Christie 's biggest problem will be the female vote because many women will vote for Hillary just to see a woman take the oval office. Add that to the fact that Dems have the Black, Hispanic, Gay, poor, non-religious vote, and Electoral College advantage and the GOP will do their best to insult each and every person within these demographics, it'll be an up mountain battle for the GOP... The Conservatives on this board aren't being realistic and honest with themselves... How do they expect to win with the white male and low Electoral college votes from red states?
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:15 PM
 
2,234 posts, read 1,759,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CincyIU29 View Post
I'm for Elizabeth Warren. I really hope she runs. I think Hillary is too much of a continuation of the old guard in Washington. Too much baggage wether she gets elected or not.
Her appeal is that she's a woman and the nostalgia of having the beloved Bill Clinton back in the White House even if it's as the first husband... I hope she does not run too, and a Republican wins the White House...
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Old 01-28-2014, 11:19 PM
 
Location: somewhere in the woods
16,880 posts, read 15,201,197 times
Reputation: 5240
Quote:
Originally Posted by itshim View Post
The war drums appear to be beating louder and more rambunctious within the excitement of the possibility of anointing Hillary as their crowning candidate before even the ribbon is cut within the past week.

But with all of the animosity surrounding the possibility and likleyhood of her making a final run for it (reminiscent of Mitt Romney)... the what if factor has to come into the equation at some point...

So who is the next one in line for the party? Who can the Democrats depend on if Hillary decides that her time is up?

looks like they will have to go with biden.
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