Unemployment Drops To 6.6% - Lowest Since Oct 2008 (election, elect, government)
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Well if we can get more people just dropping out then the rate will go below 6% and everyone will be happy again.
Any chance that the rate would go up if the extended UI benefits were reinstated and those people were back on the rolls and counted as "officially" unemployed?
Any chance that the rate would go up if the extended UI benefits were reinstated and those people were back on the rolls and counted as "officially" unemployed?
Now why should that happen ?
There's no need to extend benefits with the UE rate dropping each month and all this talk about the recovered economy. Even the Fed is pulling back saying we don't need their money any more.
hmmm we have gone up 16 million in population, since June 2008... but have LESS working people than that month....more people unemployed
the numbers don't look good
Takers out-number Workers by a large margin; that margin will continually increase; it is long-term, meaning that's the situation for the next 70-80 years; and it's going to get ugly, unless someone smacks the Takers in the teeth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives
The amount of right-wingers who complained about U3 when it was at 10%: A BIG FAT ZERO
Did you know the year is 2014?
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Originally Posted by malamute
This is why unemployment figures are not a good indicator.
Whoever said they would be?
Unemployment doesn't exist in a vacuum. It's just one piece of the puzzle, just as employment, Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment-to-Population Ratio, Employment by Age Group, and an host of other things -- some not even related to employment -- are pieces of the puzzle.
Quote:
Originally Posted by softblueyz
So the government does a "poll" the same as Gallop and Pew.
No, some of the interviews are conducted face-to-face.
And there is a difference, because the Census Bureau interviews only households, while Gallup interviews only individuals (for their Payroll-to-Population Data).
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp
Your post notes what unemployment insurance measures. If you are no longer on it of course you are not counted. We are talking about those who are unemployed, period.
There is no relationship between UE Benefits and the Unemployment Rate.
Another way of putting it is that when the government collects unemployment data, it doesn't give a damn who is or isn't collecting unemployment benefits and none of the government agencies ask the several States for data on unemployment benefits (except the IRS and Social Security and probably the NSA).
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp
You "believe"? I know of not a single unemployed worker ever surveyed. You?
So? You're focused entirely exclusively on the individual. The Census Bureau does not interview individuals, rather it interviews households.
Look, this is real freaking simple.
The entire US is divided up into Census Tracts. There's about 85 Million of them, yet there are 114 Million Households. Obviously, some residences have more than one Household -- Mother (Household #1) caring for aging Father (Household #2) while Mother's adult Daughter lives there (Household #3) along with adult Daughter's live-in boyfriend (Household #4).
The decennial census is conducted using two forms, known as the short-form and the long-form. Only 1 in 10 residences get a long-form, or.....8.5 Million residences.
From those 8.5 Million residences, the Census Bureau will contact 30,000 residences each year and ask if they wish to participate in an annual study. It's voluntary. If the head of household agrees, then they participate for an entire year.
So each month --- for an entire year -- the Census Bureau will contact the same people to interview. About 3,000 of those interviews are conducted face-to-face, meaning a representative from the Census Bureau enters your home, plops down on your couch and interviews you. How many hours did you work? What was your pay? You saved all of your gasoline receipts, let me see them. How did many hours did you watch TV? How many hours did you surf the internet? What did you spend on healthcare? Utilities? Clothes? Food? How many times did you eat out? Did you go to the cinema show? And so on.
The other 30,000 are divided into groups and interviewed by telephone for 6 months at a time.
I guess the point is that this is not some purely random telephone survey.
The people in the survey are pre-selected and they participate monthly for 6-12 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp
I'm 22 and just out of college. I'm looking for a job, how does the government know that? I was fired from my last job and not eligible for UI so I didn't sign up but I'm looking for a new job. How does the government know that?
Because you are not the only one so situated.
It's called statistical sampling.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pknopp
If they don't even know you are unemployed how do they select you?
No, some of the interviews are conducted face-to-face.
And there is a difference, because the Census Bureau interviews only households, while Gallup interviews only individuals (for their Payroll-to-Population Data).
There is no relationship between UE Benefits and the Unemployment Rate.
Another way of putting it is that when the government collects unemployment data, it doesn't give a damn who is or isn't collecting unemployment benefits and none of the government agencies ask the several States for data on unemployment benefits (except the IRS and Social Security and probably the NSA).
So? You're focused entirely exclusively on the individual. The Census Bureau does not interview individuals, rather it interviews households.
Look, this is real freaking simple.
The entire US is divided up into Census Tracts. There's about 85 Million of them, yet there are 114 Million Households. Obviously, some residences have more than one Household -- Mother (Household #1) caring for aging Father (Household #2) while Mother's adult Daughter lives there (Household #3) along with adult Daughter's live-in boyfriend (Household #4).
The decennial census is conducted using two forms, known as the short-form and the long-form. Only 1 in 10 residences get a long-form, or.....8.5 Million residences.
From those 8.5 Million residences, the Census Bureau will contact 30,000 residences each year and ask if they wish to participate in an annual study. It's voluntary. If the head of household agrees, then they participate for an entire year.
So each month --- for an entire year -- the Census Bureau will contact the same people to interview. About 3,000 of those interviews are conducted face-to-face, meaning a representative from the Census Bureau enters your home, plops down on your couch and interviews you. How many hours did you work? What was your pay? You saved all of your gasoline receipts, let me see them. How did many hours did you watch TV? How many hours did you surf the internet? What did you spend on healthcare? Utilities? Clothes? Food? How many times did you eat out? Did you go to the cinema show? And so on.
The other 30,000 are divided into groups and interviewed by telephone for 6 months at a time.
I guess the point is that this is not some purely random telephone survey.
The people in the survey are pre-selected and they participate monthly for 6-12 months.
To your first response above, I was asking the poster for confirmation to what s/he said.
My friend showed me the census she received from the Census Bureau. It was a booklet and wanted the smallest detail on each individual in the household. Might be meaningless to the person being asked, but it means something to the census. First she received the census by email, then it was followed by the booklet. If the booklet isn't returned completed she would have a visitor and possibly face a fine. That is not voluntary when you face punishment for not complying.
As to "polls" they are not random. They target sectors to get the results they seek.
Labor Force Data Derived from the Current Population Survey
Collection Methods
Each month, during the calendar week containing the 19th day, interviewers contact a "responsible" person in each of the sample households in the CPS. At the time of the first enumeration of a household, the interviewer visits the household and prepares a roster of the household members, including their personal characteristics (date of birth, sex, race, ethnic origin, marital status, educational attainment, veteran status, and so on) and their relationship to the person maintaining the household. The interviewers enter this information into laptop computers. This roster is then checked for accuracy and brought up to date at each subsequent interview to take account of new or departed residents, changes in marital status, and similar items. The information on personal characteristics is thus available each month for identification purposes and for cross-classification with economic characteristics of the sample population.
Personal visits are preferred in the first month in which the household is in the sample. In other months, the interview generally is conducted by telephone. Approximately 70 percent of the households in any given month are interviewed by telephone. A portion of the households (10 percent) is interviewed via computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI), from three centralized telephone centers (located in Hagerstown, MD; Jeffersonville, IN; and Tucson, AZ) by interviewers who also use a computerized questionnaire.
At each monthly visit, a series of standard questions on labor market activity during the preceding week is asked about each household member 15 years of age and older. (As previously mentioned, the official labor force estimates pertain to those aged 16 and older.) The primary purpose of these questions is to classify the sample population into the three basic economic groups: The employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force.
At the end of each day's interviewing, the data collected are transmitted to the Census Bureau's central computer in Washington, DC. Once files are transmitted to the main computer, they are deleted from the laptops.
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