What Are We Going To Do About Automation? (minimum wage, education, retired)
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There are so many "jobs" out there right now that aren't being done it's hard to even comprehend. We've got so many bridge repairs, roads and other construction projects that aren't being done or funded right now that the citizens of this country are at risk. It's not a matter of automation eliminating jobs, it's that automation eliminates jobs that were once gravy, high paying jobs that people will little or no skill could keep for 25 - 30 years like union auto workers. We already see those jobs disappearing due to automation and just plain old logic.
People will need to learn actual trades again, people will need to learn how to physically do a job which is valuable again. Robots aren't going to replace bridge steel workers or guys paving roads. Robots will never replace plumbers, electricians or carpenters.
Robots will replace steel workers, and other then repairs at first will also replace many of the other trades you suggest. You can just now see the very beginning of this. just small hints. Modular buildings are being created in China, the next step will be automating the creation of the modules, and that does mean replacing the listed trades during construction. Repairs though? Oh yeah-those will be around for a while.
Automating replacing a road? Very doable.
But does the world NEED new plumbers? uhmmm...not really.
Bridges will be made out of new materials, many of which can be printed on site. Thats more of a side effect of 3D printing then of automation per se.
Those who think that humans are going to somehow find new easy jobs that we dont automate away are incredibly mistaken. Most people think software engineers are safe, and they're right-in the near term. Long term? Nope. We can be replaced. But probably after im retired.
Then theres "we will always need someone to repair them". again, nope. If we make a robot that repairs cars-and I've thought long and hard about that-its very doable. Then we can make one that repairs the robots, and copies of itself.
People have been losing their jobs for various reasons, and getting others, for at least the last few thousand years.
Why is "automation" any different from the other reasons?
It takes some abstract thought to envision the scenarios:
Self-driving car gets invented. Car runs on computer programming.
-Taxi drivers get put out of work
-Traffic cops get put out of work (self-driving cars won't speed or crash)
-parking is no longer necessary, parking garage attendents are put out of work
-Driving schools put out of work
-Bus drivers put out of work
-Truck drivers put out of work
etc., etc.
The only people who retain jobs are the programmers. Well... after programmers perfect the self-driving car programs... guess who else gets put out of work (if they can't design a new program for the next industry)?
You go to McDonalds... food is ordered via voice recognition into a computer. Robots build your order, make all the ingredients. Those handful of robots replace the entire fast food workforce. Robots don't sleep. They don't require pay. They don't complain. They don't think. They do their job better than you do.
You go to McDonalds... food is ordered via voice recognition into a computer. Robots build your order, make all the ingredients. Those handful of robots replace the entire fast food workforce. Robots don't sleep. They don't require pay. They don't complain. They don't think. They do their job better than you do.
If I get home and my order is right.....I'll be good with it.
The same thing we did when the farriers lost their jobs due to cars, same thing we did when the steamship crews lost their jobs due to aircraft.
I hear this a lot, but theres a critical difference. The automation thats coming is going to be inexpensive, and more capable. If new jobs are created, they will be mostly filled by...automation. Not humans.
How to explain this.... OK before, a giant machine replaced your manual job. It was very expensive, but could replace 100 people doing one thing. You went and got some new manual job. no big deal, 1 month of training and done.
Whats coming is different, a small moderately cost general purpose machine replaces physical labor, and very complex simple ai's replace skilled people. And FAR larger swaths of people being replaced. The remaining jobs require years of training.
Now go watch Watson on Jeopardy. Recognize that this kind of computing power will replace people with some serious skills.
You go to McDonalds... food is ordered via voice recognition into a computer. Robots build your order, make all the ingredients. Those handful of robots replace the entire fast food workforce. Robots don't sleep. They don't require pay. They don't complain. They don't think. They do their job better than you do.
Actually its even better then that. People tend to order in patterns.
So imagine you drive up to mcdonalds-your plate is scanned on approach, when you arrive your order is already up, or a selection of your most common orders. You can either order via voice, Or just order the most common order. And its all customized EXACTLY how you want. 1 pickle, 2 pickles, the pickles on the side, or in the middle. Its EXACTLY customized. And its made on demand. on the spot, at the temperature you want. and its made fast. no waiting. And its open 24/7.
Now that assumes we dont use any 3d food printing technology thats being developed, and stick with no payment modifications.
"war and disease are the only answers. One of them is going to wipe out enough people to restore demand to a reasonable level."
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