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Well, we constantly hear from liberals about how biased Rasmussen is. Now it appears, at least with some polling, they may be correct - but not in the way the lefties think.
Take a look at Obama's job approval polling on Real Clear Politics.
Rasmussen currently has Obama's approval higher than any other poll listed...and this usually seems to be the case now.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok
Well, we constantly hear from liberals about how biased Rasmussen is. Now it appears, at least with some polling, they may be correct - but not in the way the lefties think.
Take a look at Obama's job approval polling on Real Clear Politics.
Rasmussen currently has Obama's approval higher than any other poll listed...and this usually seems to be the case now.
They changed their methodology following the 2012 election. Did they go too far?
Rasmussen changed their methodology because they were biased. So no, liberals didnt "claim" they were biased, Rasmussen themselves confirmed it.
Maybe they over corrected, or maybe they are now polling all americans, not just likely voters, because the problem with likely voters is that they are usually defined specifically by previous elections. So first time/turing 18 voters are never counted and its disproportionately Republican.
Rasmussen, the guy who created the organization, was forced out of it after the 2012 debacle. he's now retired.
The company has been trying to rehabilitate itself ever since.
Political victory depends on polling accuracy, and polling is a politician's only way to gauge what is working or not and where he stands at the moment.
It's a multi-billion dollar business if the polls and the methods of polling are honest and accurate. When they are not, the billion bucks goes to other outfits. Rasmussen needed to get it right or die. Those were Rasmussen's only options.
We will not see another echo chamber happening in 2016.
If they're the outlier, then yes odds are they went too far. I imagine they will look at their questions, and methodology and try to figure out what went on.
There is still a lot of smoke and mirrors in polling. I always found it curious that Rasmussen was a target of the left, yet typically had Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP.
There is still a lot of smoke and mirrors in polling. I always found it curious that Rasmussen was a target of the left, yet typically had Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP.
Wrong.
Again.
The final Rasmussen poll of 2012 had Romney +1. This is tied (with one other poll) for the most pro-Romney poll of the final week of the campaign, per RCP. The aggregate of those polls was Obama +0.7. The real world results were Obama +3.9.
Before that, we have a Rasmussen poll from October 6 showing Romney +2. This is (tied with one other poll for) the second-most pro-Romney poll in the first 20 days of the month (out of a total of 17 polls).
Then there's the October 4 offering from Rasmussen. Here, they're actually pretty much in the middle of the pack from that time, with Obama +2 - but a glance at every poll with a sample ending in the week surrounding that poll, from 09/30 to 10/06, shows an aggregate of Obama +3.2. So even that poll does not show Rasmussen having, as you claim, "Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP".
Moving back further, on September 16 they released a poll showing Romney +2. Out of 31 polls tracked by RCP in September, it is the only one showing a Romney lead (two others showed a tied race, while 28 showed Obama in the lead).
The only other Rasmussen poll in September was released on the 9th - Obama +5. The 10 polls tracked by RCP in the second week of September, they aggregate to Obama +4.1. Hallelujah! We finally have a poll that is (ever so slightly) to the left of contemporary polls!
Continuing back in time, we have a late-August offering from Rasmussen pegging Obama at +2, which differs slightly from three Romney +1 polls of the same time span, but in agreement with even more polls from around that time showing Obama with small leads.
On August 10, Rasmussen served up the only poll showing Romney leading in the first 20 days of that month.
In late July, they again posted a poll showing Romney leading - the only such poll between July 16 and August 10 (the aforementioned Rasmussen poll).
On both July 14th and July 6th, Rasmussen reported the race tied. The aggregated polls from the first three weeks of July showed Obama +1.7. Not all that far off the mark - but certainly not "Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP".
In June? Same story. Two Rasmussen polls - one showing Romney +4 (his best poll of the entire month) and one with the race tied. Overall, Obama led in 11 of the 15 June races on RCP (Romney led two, two were tied). Again, Rasmussen was under-polling Obama compared to other polls.
Now, away from corrected the record of Rassmussen in 2012 and back to Rasmussen in 2014 - until they demonstrate an actual ability to produce polls which reliably predict outcomes, my assumption regarding this polling firm will continue to the 'garbage in, garbage out' regardless of who they show in the lead in any given poll.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz
There is still a lot of smoke and mirrors in polling. I always found it curious that Rasmussen was a target of the left, yet typically had Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP.
SOme one already responded to this, but it is clear we have passed the point to where people now misremembered recent history, Like Republicans saying Barack Obama signed TARP or is responsible for Katrina.
Well, we constantly hear from liberals about how biased Rasmussen is. Now it appears, at least with some polling, they may be correct - but not in the way the lefties think.
Take a look at Obama's job approval polling on Real Clear Politics.
Rasmussen currently has Obama's approval higher than any other poll listed...and this usually seems to be the case now.
They changed their methodology following the 2012 election. Did they go too far?
Why did the founder, Scott Rasmussen, leave the company he started?
So he could abandon any pretense at political neutrality and become an openly conservative commentator using his new company, Rasumussen Media Group. That's his version of the story. The other version is the Rasmussen stockholders forced him out.
What was the real reason he left?
Because the company was worth about $1.98 after being a consistent polling outlier throughout 2012, giving all the Republicans who paid him lots and lots of money for false information, including Mitt Romney, Fox News, and many others who thought they were leading, and were either defeated or deeply embarrassed after depending on the Rasmussen polls.
Polling is the only way a candidate knows if his campaign is working well or not, whether he's gaining ground or losing it, and where he is strong or weak, so he can concentrate on the weak areas. Rassumssen created the echo chamber that was talked about so much in 2012. His organization consistently fudged their polling results, giving the Repbulicans only what they wanted to hear, not what they needed to know. They got nothing but unicorns and rainbows when all the other polling companies were showing the GOP was losing ground in the Presidential race.
Now, the shattered remainder of this folly is trying to show they can be as accurate as PPP, Gallup, and all the others. Polling companies live and die by their accuracy, and can't make a living only on their political polls. They all deal in carefully crafted questions and accurate answers. That's their goods in trade. Rasmussen asked too many leading questions, and fudged the results, so they failed their customers on both of the items they make their living with.
Between elections, all of the companies poll for newspapers, websites, TV, and all the major media on all kinds of questions. The conduct polls for new products entering the market, old products that are losing market share, and all kinds of commercial enterprises.
They take popularity polls for retailers, local TV and radio stations, and for anyone who has a competitive product of any kind. That's their bread and butter. Politics is the gravy on top.
But politics can sink a polling company if they are too far off too often in a campaign. That's what the plus and minus variables are all about. Political polling is super important because they are followed by more people and more companies than all other polls. The gravy, once poisoned, taints the bread and butter and kills their other biz.
So Rasmussen now has to show it's methods are very good and very accurate to stay alive as a company. During 2012, several polling companies went down the drain, and each lost millions of dollars of potential business because they failed in their accuracy. In the polling biz, the bad news is just as important as the good news. In poll after poll during 2012, Rasmussen was the outlier- the company whose results were far off all the others. Those rainbows and unicorns Rasmussen sold were pretty and sparkly, and they cost the GOP millions of wasted dollars for nothing but fake glitter.
Now that Rasmussen himself is gone, he no longer has to pretend he's impartial. He's now building ad campaigns for conservative candidates and making speeches on their behalf. The echo tank got all filled up with sludge, and it ain't ever going to be cleaned out. Don't expect 2016 to be like 2012. The GOP spent close to a Billion Dollars and got very little return for that huge amount of money.
Last edited by banjomike; 06-09-2014 at 12:39 AM..
SOme one already responded to this, but it is clear we have passed the point to where people now misremembered recent history, Like Republicans saying Barack Obama signed TARP or is responsible for Katrina.
Hatred can make one an idiot, as the hard right Obamaphobes demonstrate regularly.
The final Rasmussen poll of 2012 had Romney +1. This is tied (with one other poll) for the most pro-Romney poll of the final week of the campaign, per RCP. The aggregate of those polls was Obama +0.7. The real world results were Obama +3.9.
Before that, we have a Rasmussen poll from October 6 showing Romney +2. This is (tied with one other poll for) the second-most pro-Romney poll in the first 20 days of the month (out of a total of 17 polls).
Then there's the October 4 offering from Rasmussen. Here, they're actually pretty much in the middle of the pack from that time, with Obama +2 - but a glance at every poll with a sample ending in the week surrounding that poll, from 09/30 to 10/06, shows an aggregate of Obama +3.2. So even that poll does not show Rasmussen having, as you claim, "Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP".
Moving back further, on September 16 they released a poll showing Romney +2. Out of 31 polls tracked by RCP in September, it is the only one showing a Romney lead (two others showed a tied race, while 28 showed Obama in the lead).
The only other Rasmussen poll in September was released on the 9th - Obama +5. The 10 polls tracked by RCP in the second week of September, they aggregate to Obama +4.1. Hallelujah! We finally have a poll that is (ever so slightly) to the left of contemporary polls!
Continuing back in time, we have a late-August offering from Rasmussen pegging Obama at +2, which differs slightly from three Romney +1 polls of the same time span, but in agreement with even more polls from around that time showing Obama with small leads.
On August 10, Rasmussen served up the only poll showing Romney leading in the first 20 days of that month.
In late July, they again posted a poll showing Romney leading - the only such poll between July 16 and August 10 (the aforementioned Rasmussen poll).
On both July 14th and July 6th, Rasmussen reported the race tied. The aggregated polls from the first three weeks of July showed Obama +1.7. Not all that far off the mark - but certainly not "Obama approval ratings higher than others on RCP".
In June? Same story. Two Rasmussen polls - one showing Romney +4 (his best poll of the entire month) and one with the race tied. Overall, Obama led in 11 of the 15 June races on RCP (Romney led two, two were tied). Again, Rasmussen was under-polling Obama compared to other polls.
Now, away from corrected the record of Rassmussen in 2012 and back to Rasmussen in 2014 - until they demonstrate an actual ability to produce polls which reliably predict outcomes, my assumption regarding this polling firm will continue to the 'garbage in, garbage out' regardless of who they show in the lead in any given poll.
The job approval rating poll that I referenced is different from the election polling that you are talking about. Look at RCP today. Rasmussen has Obama at 50, whereas the RCP average is 43.5. I have not done a study, but I've noticed that this is often the case.
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