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Old 10-26-2014, 07:03 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,921,681 times
Reputation: 7313

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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc;37028566

But any time you end up with 5 examples out of a 50,000 data base I would be very careful.

And if the sample size on a poll gets too low I would question it as well. 12 guys claim they will vote for Jeb Bush? I would be skeptical if it was extrapolated to the Presidency in 2016[/quote

.

Good point. In 2008, the first town to report right at midnight(Upper NH, if I recall) went McCain 8, Obama 4. Was it a good microcosm of the overall race?
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Long Island
56,993 posts, read 25,952,358 times
Reputation: 15496
Quote:
Originally Posted by southbel View Post
Well this is both disturbing and should prompt action if borne to be true. I've always had more of an issue with our loose registration system and while I am in favor of Voter ID, it's useless if a person can register without needing to prove neither citizenship nor identity. The biggest flaw in our system is at registration and needs to be strengthened. Let's face it, simply signing an affidavit to say you are a citizen is not sufficient in the world today where fraud is rampant (e.g. credit card fraud, identity fraud, tax fraud, etc, etc).

Jaw-Dropping Study Claims Large Numbers of Non-Citizens Vote in U.S. | National Review Online
The only thing jaw dropping is the source you quoted, don't you have anything better than the CCES?
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:43 PM
 
Location: Meggett, SC
11,011 posts, read 10,986,291 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
The only thing jaw dropping is the source you quoted, don't you have anything better than the CCES?
Oh good, attack the messenger. That's always a valid argument.
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:45 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,268,389 times
Reputation: 27718
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
The only thing jaw dropping is the source you quoted, don't you have anything better than the CCES?
Don't hold your breath waiting for Huffpost to print this.
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:46 PM
 
Location: southern california
61,289 posts, read 87,214,458 times
Reputation: 55551
How else do 67% of the population get voted down every election
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Old 10-26-2014, 07:54 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,921,681 times
Reputation: 7313
Such a study if done by a full-time polling firm, with far more substantial quantities polled, could be useful. None exist, though.
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Old 10-26-2014, 08:01 PM
 
Location: Meggett, SC
11,011 posts, read 10,986,291 times
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This is why I can only take P&OC in doses. Y'all have fun with the study/non-study/poll/non-poll. I'm over it. I thought it was thought provoking information. That was all.
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Old 10-26-2014, 08:08 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,921,681 times
Reputation: 7313
It might be. It might not be. That is why I stick to mainstream polling organizations which have done this work for many decades..continuously.

The huge gap b/w the 2008 and 2012 projections they alluded to would never occur with credible polling techniques.

My hunch is this so called "poll" was done "on the cheap", rather than the way it should be done.
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Old 10-26-2014, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Long Island
56,993 posts, read 25,952,358 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by southbel View Post
Oh good, attack the messenger. That's always a valid argument.
So you used a right wing link from the National Review that interpreted the CCES data, could you point us to the actual summary or the statistics that indicate this is jaw dropping.
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Old 10-27-2014, 05:59 AM
 
Location: Meggett, SC
11,011 posts, read 10,986,291 times
Reputation: 6191
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
So you used a right wing link from the National Review that interpreted the CCES data, could you point us to the actual summary or the statistics that indicate this is jaw dropping.
Look up a couple of posts. I did point to the actual data. CCES is a Harvard run study. Hardly fly by night. It's Harvard interpreted and YouGov/Polimetrix administered. Perhaps that will alleviate these 'concerns' that they're not professional enough. So yes, these surveys were performed by professional pollsters and simply interpreted and designed by academic teams (highly qualified ones at that). Does that meet your litmus test? Whatever that is? The link was an article talking about the study - that is all. But I'm pretty sure an earlier link by another poster shows Washington Post did an article on it too if you want to read that instead. Perhaps that somehow will make it 'legitimate' in your eyes.

All of the information you seek on CCES is here - CCES
And if you want to know about YouGov, here you go - Home. And here's what YouGov says about CCES - CCES
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