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So I am a Republican Conservative (note that Republican comes before Conservative in how i say that)
I want my party to win. I’m good with my party being a big tent of moderates and conservatives.
That being said, I do NOT in any way see this election as the death Nell for democrats.
Even if it is a "wave" election that sweeps Republicans to big numbers in the House and control of the Senate, I do NOT see it as a "sea change election"
First of all, at this point, I see democrat voters as fed up with their own party not doing much of anything in the senate, and feeling like Obama is not a good manager. They aren’t happy with some things like the perceived confusion over how the Ebola issue is being handled, the ISIS Crisis (that was fun to type) and other foreign policy issues.
I believe they also see him as mishandling the economy because of his perceived management lapses.
What I DO NOT see is Democrat voters making a connection between the Democrat policies that have been enacted, and what they see as economic instability and international chaos.
What I DO NOT see from the Republican party is any association between democrat policy and what democrat voters are unhappy about.
So they may stay home, or even “protest vote” but there is no ideology change that would warrant worry by democrats over their party falling apart.
The beating the Republicans took when Obama ran the first time, was very nearly a “sea change” political wave. In fact, while voters are turning on Obama, the National Republican Party remains in such disarray that they cannot take this opportunity to convince voters that the issue is a policy issue and not a failed management issue.
The GOP took a one-two punch in 2006 and 2008, which is how the Democrats got a super-majority in both houses. I cannot say I have been impressed with the Republican Party since 2010. They do not seem to have learned the lesson of why they were kicked out of office in 2006 and 2008. They are just as fiscally irresponsible and deliberately deceptive as they were before.
Even if the GOP took the Senate next week, which is likely, I seriously doubt they will do anything that cuts spending. For the last 8 years we have been hemorrhaging more than a trillion dollars every year, even with the GOP controlling the House.
A GOP victory in the Senate had better change things drastically, or the GOP will find themselves to be the minority party once again in 2016. This is their one opportunity to get it right, they had better not blow it.
Yeah they should have never taken the heritage foundation plan implemented by Romney as a basis for it. They should have just tried to get universal healthcare. (no im not being sarcastic).
But yeah I expect the GOP will struggle along until their inability to represent the majority reaches a critical point as a result of changing demographics.
The next presidential election will be vital
I think you are right about the next presidential election.
Republicans will have a chance to do something interesting.... BUT my party has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
On the demographics issue, there are 2 critical massess that just might be at a boiling point that could be something Rs can exploit.
First is the 24 to 30ish folk who voted for Obama and now see very little benifit. Rs have a chance if they figure out how, to win these people.
Second, African Americans have really been hurt by the economy under Obama and the level of hope in him being what it was, if republicans can figure out how, they might get a single chance to win a substantial portion of these voters. but they are going to have to shift some ingrained language and get open to "them" "among us" and that is a hard streatch.
The GOP took a one-two punch in 2006 and 2008, which is how the Democrats got a super-majority in both houses. I cannot say I have been impressed with the Republican Party since 2010. They do not seem to have learned the lesson of why they were kicked out of office in 2006 and 2008. They are just as fiscally irresponsible and deliberately deceptive as they were before.
Even if the GOP took the Senate next week, which is likely, I seriously doubt they will do anything that cuts spending. For the last 8 years we have been hemorrhaging more than a trillion dollars every year, even with the GOP controlling the House.
A GOP victory in the Senate had better change things drastically, or the GOP will find themselves to be the minority party once again in 2016. This is their one opportunity to get it right, they had better not blow it.
I agree with a good bit of what you said, but in large part the 2016 presidential race will come down to preception of Obama. if it is where the trajectory says it might be, Republicans can elect a third tier nobody just like the dems did in 2008.
if he rebounds to near 50% approval, then its a toss up.
i dont think he can get his number above that 50-50 line.
Republicans need to do two things in the next two years,
/First they need to tie precieved failures to democrat Policy
Second, they need to push for things that people really want, and even lose to Obamas veto... showing the people they want what the people want (whatever that is) and making Obama stick to his guns on bad policy will win big
Dude, I know for a fact that Republican legislators redrew lines to make winning easier. its not even a question of if, its a it already happened. Hey, Democrats would have done it to if they had control of the states, thats politics, but you can't say there is a large Republican movement when they have been fixing the voting districts.
Dooooooood,
And if the Dems has not been such a$$es with they way they got Obamacare passed, the voters would not have, in 2010, put the Republicans in a position to redraw those lines. Like Obama once said, "I won". In 2010 the GOP won, that means they get to draw the lines. If the Dems had waited a lousy 4 months to pass Obamacare, I think they would have held on to the house. But they weren't that smart.
Yeah they should have never taken the heritage foundation plan implemented by Romney as a basis for it. They should have just tried to get universal healthcare. (no im not being sarcastic).
But yeah I expect the GOP will struggle along until their inability to represent the majority reaches a critical point as a result of changing demographics.
The next presidential election will be vital
You can not pawn the ACTIONS of a Dem majority Congress that all on their own pushed this through, even having to pressure their own and bend the rules as they didn't even have the votes for it amongst themselves.
That is a most disingenuous claim to make and widely known to be so.
I agree with a good bit of what you said, but in large part the 2016 presidential race will come down to preception of Obama. if it is where the trajectory says it might be, Republicans can elect a third tier nobody just like the dems did in 2008.
if he rebounds to near 50% approval, then its a toss up.
i dont think he can get his number above that 50-50 line.
Republicans need to do two things in the next two years,
/First they need to tie precieved failures to democrat Policy
Second, they need to push for things that people really want, and even lose to Obamas veto... showing the people they want what the people want (whatever that is) and making Obama stick to his guns on bad policy will win big
They also need to cut spending and stop playing inane games with the budget.
If the GOP end up controlling Congress after next week, then Obama's approval rating will increase. Just like it did for Clinton when the GOP took control of Congress. You are forgetting the civically illiterate American voter - everything Congress does, good or bad, is credited or blamed on the President.
If the GOP does the right thing by the American people, Obama will most certainly be given all the credit. The media will make sure of it.
I think you are right about the next presidential election.
Republicans will have a chance to do something interesting.... BUT my party has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory...
On the demographics issue, there are 2 critical massess that just might be at a boiling point that could be something Rs can exploit.
First is the 24 to 30ish folk who voted for Obama and now see very little benifit. Rs have a chance if they figure out how, to win these people.
Second, African Americans have really been hurt by the economy under Obama and the level of hope in him being what it was, if republicans can figure out how, they might get a single chance to win a substantial portion of these voters. but they are going to have to shift some ingrained language and get open to "them" "among us" and that is a hard streatch.
I couldent have said it better ... the GOP also has a good opportunity with legal and native born Hispanics. My personal opinion is that the GOP should ditch the morals crusade (abortion, gay marriage, etc) and stick to fiscal conservatism, economic liberalism (free market), a strong military, and a limited Federal government. Conservatism without the "Religious right" lunatics.
Of course, like you said the GOP has a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory ...
Again (and again) it's ain't over until the fat lady sings. Don't take anything for granted. VOTE!
Having said that, it does look like the GOP is going to do well next week.
Also having said that, they had better get their freakin' act together, find some decent candidates for 2016, quit sayin' stupid and come up a one page plan filled with details to fix the things that need fixing. If they don't do that, then they're screwed in 2016. And so are we.
We can't undo the past 6 years with one slip of paper. How many pages is ACA?
Stupid? We don't have the corner on that. "What's the difference?"
We have candidates; they don't want to be soiled by running for political office. Look at Obama now compared to just 6 years ago. He looks like Bill Robinson.
Yeah they should have never taken the heritage foundation plan implemented by Romney as a basis for it. They should have just tried to get universal healthcare. (no im not being sarcastic).
I know you aren't. And that's what's truly frightening. The idea that there are people out there who see the mess than universal healthcare has become in Europe and yet want to implement it here anyway is scary.
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But yeah I expect the GOP will struggle along until their inability to represent the majority reaches a critical point as a result of changing demographics.
Not really. Once the minorities reach majority status, they will no longer fall for liberal pandering the way they do today. Once they are in the majority themselves, they will become conservative just like the majority is today. It's the nature of things. Then they will realize, just as the majority does today, that liberals are idiots and liars who can't manage an economy to save their lives, and when the liberals crash and burn, as they always do, it will be them paying the price. The only way liberals win elections is by pandering to the outlying segments of society. As those outlying segments get bigger, the liberals gain power. But once those outlying segments reach critical mass they will no longer fall for liberal lies and mismanagement anymore. Once they are the ones paying the price for the liberals' inability to run an economy, they will desert the Democrats in droves.
It has been literally decades since the Democrats were able to win a majority of votes of the run-of-the-mill middle class. Once hispanics and homosexuals and other minorities reach a certain point of mainstream society, then the empty liberal rhetoric will no longer work for them anymore. Democrats can't win on the actual issues. They haven't been able to for decades.
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The next presidential election will be vital
No, it won't. No single presidential election is vital.
Last edited by kidkaos2; 10-28-2014 at 05:54 PM..
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