Murders drop in NYC, LA, and Chicago, but rise in other cities... (wages, illegal)

[tablemtn]

A mixed picture of murder in America's big cities

First, the good news: New York City, Chicago, and Los Angeles - the country's three largest cities - are all posting substantial declines in their murder rates. Chicago remains the most murderous (per capita) of the three, with 435 killings by December 26. But this is on track to be a multi-decade low, and is much better than the 900+ murders that were regularly notched in the 1990's.

Los Angeles has recorded slightly under 400 murders this year, which is WAY down from last year's total of over 470. That's a dramatic decline, and many credit the leadership of police chief Bill Bratton.

NYC may finish the year with under 500 murders, which is a dramatic turnaround from the 2,240 murders recorded in 1991, and is a substantial drop from 2006, when 596 people died.

So, in America's three largest cities, the news is pretty good when it comes to homicide. The rates are still much higher than cities elsewhere in the industrialized world, but progress is progress.

However, many of the country's mid-sized cities have seen increases in the murder rate. Dallas is more than 25 murders AHEAD of last year's total. New Orleans had recorded a staggering 210 murders as of last week, despite having a population of less than 300,000. This is up from 2006's already-catastrophic 164 murders. Atlanta, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco, St. Louis, Cleveland, Detroit, and Boise are among the cities that have seen their murder rates jump.

Outside of the major cities, murders seem to be trending slightly upward. This may be a sign that criminals FROM the largest cities have been expelled to other areas, where it is easier to get away with crime, or it may be related to the release of large numbers of people who were sentenced to long prison terms in the late 1980's and early 1990's, during the beginning of the sentencing crackdown. Most of those sentences, though long, do eventually expire, and unless freed inmates have something to fall back on, many turn back to crime quickly.

So, though murder in general is up a bit in America, the three largest cities have managed to push their numbers down.

[Magnulus]

Crime is up in Orlando, too.

I think it is due to alot of things. Abortion access has been trending downward for more than a decade, leading to more unwanted kids who will grow up more likely to become delinquents and criminals. Also, population pressures from immigration are combining with a soft, weak economy where even people who have legal jobs aren't making wages that keep up with inflation.

The US is becomming far more like a third world country like Brazil than a well-developed nation, that's why the crime is going up. Those cities that are lowering crime are gentrifying, keeping their diverse economies, and pricing out the criminally inclined. Interesting to note that they are mostly in "blue" states, maybe there is something to that as well.

[dunkel25]

Aren't guns pretty much impossible to get (at least legally) in Chicago, New York, LA, and Washington DC? So how is it that there are so many murders there?

[The Dissenter]

Originally Posted by dunkel25

Aren't guns pretty much impossible to get (at least legally) in Chicago, New York, LA, and Washington DC? So how is it that there are so many murders there?

i can explain DC. DC does have proixmity to Virginia which is a gun-filled state (nicknamed VirGUNia) and Maryland which also has more gun availability than the District. So basically anyone can cross the 14th St bridge from VA or any road on the border of MD/DC and bring a gun in and shoot-em-up.

Also, this homicide problem aint just troubling the big cities. Norfolk, VA (population 250k) had it's murder rate go out of control this year. In fact yesterday 3 shootings claimed two lives within 18 hours, very scary for a non-NYC type city. Newport News, VA (pop 200k) had 30 murders this year when the average is 21 a year. Alexandria, VA (pop 145k) had six murders when it usually goes under 5 a year.

[Chinolala]

It's illegal to possess guns in Chicago, but legal in some of Chicago's suburbs. Chicago proper is becoming more and more gentrified and expensive, thus some of the crime is moving into the suburbs. Areas of the city that were bargains 10-20 years ago, are pricey now. There are still crime ridden areas of the city, but not has many as years past.

[briarwood]

Originally Posted by Magnulus

Crime is up in Orlando, too.

I think it is due to alot of things. Abortion access has been trending downward for more than a decade, leading to more unwanted kids who will grow up more likely to become delinquents and criminals. Also, population pressures from immigration are combining with a soft, weak economy where even people who have legal jobs aren't making wages that keep up with inflation.

The US is becomming far more like a third world country like Brazil than a well-developed nation, that's why the crime is going up. Those cities that are lowering crime are gentrifying, keeping their diverse economies, and pricing out the criminally inclined. Interesting to note that they are mostly in "blue" states, maybe there is something to that as well.

Most every city is a "Blue" city when it really comes down to it. NO is like 90% Blue. Not a good example, huh?

The crime decrease in NYC in my opinion (can't speak for Chi or LA) is due to a significat drop in the AA/Puerto Rican popualtion and their replacement by both immigrants and Gentrifiers. As these massive demographic shifts continue, expect crime to freefall.

[tablemtn]

Personally, I don't think gun control laws have much impact one way or another when it comes to the murder rates of American cities. In fact, there is only one large city in North America without any murders recorded for 2007 - Quebec City, Quebec.

[LM1]

Originally Posted by lisak64

It's illegal to possess guns in Chicago, but legal in some of Chicago's suburbs. Chicago proper is becoming more and more gentrified and expensive, thus some of the crime is moving into the suburbs. Areas of the city that were bargains 10-20 years ago, are pricey now. There are still crime ridden areas of the city, but not has many as years past.

Everything you said is true, except the guns thing.
Handguns are illegal in Chicago, certain classes of long guns are illegal in Chicago (guns that have been labeled by anti-gun types as "assault weapons"), but there are guns you can own upon registry. Heck, you can actually go duck hunting in the City Limits (Wolf Lake).

Some areas of Chicago are gentrifying quickly (particularly the areas along the lakeshore) but there is still a huge swath of the city that won't ever turn that corner... and yes, you're 100% correct when you mention that some suburbs are turning into ghettos- and fast.

[crbcrbrgv]

Originally Posted by lisak64

It's illegal to possess guns in Chicago, but legal in some of Chicago's suburbs. Chicago proper is becoming more and more gentrified and expensive, thus some of the crime is moving into the suburbs. Areas of the city that were bargains 10-20 years ago, are pricey now. There are still crime ridden areas of the city, but not has many as years past.

That's a great point, lisa. Chicago, and I'm sure these other cities that are seeing decreases are in the same boat. Gentrification in Chicago is expanding even into some of the worst neighborhoods to the point where the police have to double up on Englewood, Austin and half of Humboldt Park.