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Ahh let me see if I can explain. I am involved in this in some ways so I see it from the inside. Mechanization replaces a specific group of people. Automation of the sort we are looking at will replace a huge number of people, and is generic enough that it also takes many of the newly created jobs. And while in the past a replaced group of people was a small % of the population, we're now looking at truly mind boggling numbers of people.
Fast food alone employs approx 3% of our population. Thats huge. If it was JUST them losing their jobs....it would be as you describe....we'd absorb them, and have new jobs. But we're looking at numbers estimated by some at the 40-50% range total. Personally I think its lower-in the 30% range.....but simply put we are not going to be able to create new jobs for these people fast enough. The rate of change exceeds the ability of us to absorb the joblessness and create new ones-especially for the kind of people working the lost jobs.
AI is also replacing jobs.
Automation and AI are taking over human capabilities at exponential speeds here.
I'm sure the USG knows this as well.
All those folks will be on welfare as will all those third world immigrants about to get amnesty,
Automation and AI are taking over human capabilities at exponential speeds here.
I'm sure the USG knows this as well.
All those folks will be on welfare as will all those third world immigrants about to get amnesty,
Weird, folks keep bringing up amnesty despite the fact the president isn't giving it to them, and can't.....Are you assuming the Republican majority is going to vote that in next year?
But you are correct, it is exponential, and thats the issue...its slow at first, then suddenly BAM.
Also its not really AI, its expert systems. I know it looks the same in some ways, but it isnt. when we really get AI....oh boy. everything changes.
And welfare? Thats only good for 5 years, AND you need to be a family. Welfare in no way is going to help with this. Somethings going to have to give.
You do understand that there is this thing called profit, and that it is defined (generally) as Revenue - Taxes - Cost.
In your fantasy world, apparently you can raise Cost as much as you want and remain profitable, but if we hold taxes constant, and we wish profit to be a positive number (which it must be for the business to survive), then Revenue must increase as Cost increases. How does your "pay employees whatever they need to live whatever way they want" handle the Revenue side of the coin? The more money people have in their hands the more they spend it is that simple. There is more to cost then just how much your employees make not sure you understand that.
Take CostCo for instance. They do pay more than Sam's Club. They also use fewer employees per square foot of retail space, they sell more high ticket items, and they only ever drop a store in neighborhoods with higher per household income. And even with all that, if they don't charge a membership fee, they are only profitable once in the last 15 years, and the one year they would have been profitable without the memberships, their margin was 0.7%, which can't even sustain the business if any inflation happens at all. Sounds like a good business model maybe more businesses should use this model and there are other businesses that pay well to.
You cannot simply pay everyone more and stay profitable. If you believe you can, then open a business, and pay your employees whatever they need to have a proper and solid lifestyle that you envision as adequate, with a nice home, good mortgage, nice car, enough disposable income to sock away retirement, awesome benefits, etc. By all means, start that company, and when you interview employees, ask them what they'd like to be paid, sky's the limit!! See how long you stay in business in the real world where revenue is not infinite. Really How about companies like Panera Bread, Target, Urban Outfitters, Banana Republic, Office Depot who all start pay above min wage?
The value of a job is based on the job, the industry, and the market. Period. In the US market, you might get $10 hourly for Job A in Industry B, and in Bangladesh, that same exact Job A in Industry B pays $0.25 hourly. Job + industry + market = compensation. The Bangladesh labor market is much cheaper than the US market, so the exact same thing will pay according to a market. So why do some retail stores pay more then min wage to start and other do not they are in the industry doing the same thing? Like I have said before pay has nothing to do with supply and demand or what people are worth it is whatever the company wants to pay them.
A real estate agent in Wyoming likely makes less per sale than a real estate agent in Manhattan or SanFran. Same exact job, same exact industry, but vastly different markets.
But if you think I am full of it, as are all the other callous and heartless capitalists who quote all this "revenue - tax - cost = profit" nonsense, then do like I said and prove me wrong. Open a business, and pay all your employees whatever you think is necessary for them to live the good life, no matter what task they perform, no matter what their experience, education, whatever. Let us all know how well it works out.
Name the person, the skill, experience and knowledge and what job they couldn't get.
The whole open your business and pay whatever you want is just a cop out trying to prove it would not work if I did it you do not know though do you you just like to assume it would not work out? Businesses are there for profit but they also exist in society and when people need those jobs to live on society can tell business how to treat their employees.If businesses could many would pay as little as possible for their employees that is why we have laws because businesses have proven they can not be trusted to govern by themselves.
Weird, folks keep bringing up amnesty despite the fact the president isn't giving it to them, and can't.....Are you assuming the Republican majority is going to vote that in next year?
But you are correct, it is exponential, and thats the issue...its slow at first, then suddenly BAM.
Also its not really AI, its expert systems. I know it looks the same in some ways, but it isnt. when we really get AI....oh boy. everything changes.
And welfare? Thats only good for 5 years, AND you need to be a family. Welfare in no way is going to help with this. Somethings going to have to give.
It is AI. That is the broad field these all fall under; the ability of the hardware/software to exhibit "intelligence".
Where were you all when the home computer replaced the typewriter? Complain about those job losses? How about the jobs that disappeared in hotels/motels because you told the owners they didn't have to change the sheets daily for eco reasons? Casino jobs that disappeared when they went to paper tickets and machines to cash them replacing coins and human pay offs for jackpots?
Where were you all when the home computer replaced the typewriter? Complain about those job losses? How about the jobs that disappeared in hotels/motels because you told the owners they didn't have to change the sheets daily for eco reasons? Casino jobs that disappeared when they went to paper tickets and machines to cash them replacing coins and human pay offs for jackpots?
That is the point. This is different from those things. It's not a partisan issue--it has no left/right element to it. This will adversely affect vast numbers of people, and we are not ready for the social upheaval it will bring.
Cry as you might, technological advance is going to happen and displace many workers.
Those with skills will move on.
Today you have your self checkouts with 1 human watching over 6-8 checkouts.
Tomorrow...you pack up all your food and wheel it out the door past a scanner that does all the work and bills your credit/debit card and that one last human watching over people disappears.
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