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I think genetic engineering is far more dangerous than nuclear fusion. I am waiting for some genius to splice the genes of Ebola with the flu or a common cold just to see it can be done. There was a reason GOD didn't want us to feast on the tree of knowledge!
I'm more nervous about inventing our own successors, aka sentient AI, than about genetic engineering or nuclear fusion. Firstly, anybody can't just genetically engineer a lifeform, you need sophisticated equipment to do that. Secondly, nuclear fusion is nowhere near as dangerous as fission. What's going on inside our nuclear reactors is the same process that happens when a nuclear bomb explodes: fission
I work in the finance industry and attended a high profile conference a few months ago where several top executives spoke. Larry fink, the head of black rock, the worlds largest money manager, was asked about potential black swan events. He said one thing that keeps him up at night is technology improving so quickly that masses and masses of people could be out of work and world wars occurring because of this.
Honestly, I think we have just about the perfect amount and level of technology now. I just don't know how much further we can go without crossing into the realm of the terrifying. The one area where I'd really like to see improvements is medicine.
Nevertheless, I support science and new R&D. But I think we are really going to have to work on some boundaries as a society.
Honestly, I'd say the rate of major, life changing technological development has dropped off drastically in the last few decades. Look at someone born in say 1900. At that point, only a few major cites had any electricity. Automobiles were essentially non-existant, only a handful of primitive ones existed as a novelty. The first airplane flight wouldn't occur for another 6 years. TV of course hadn't been invented and radio was very primitive.
Look at the changes from 1900-1970. It's amazing-electrification of the country. Personal automobiles become commonplace. Man takes his first flight, to commercial air travel becomes common to jet air travel becomes commercialized, all in about 50 years. Telephones, radio and TV are invented and become common in nearly every home. Nuclear power is developed power generation and transportation. We go from not being able to launch a rocket, to putting a satellite and then a man in space, to putting a man on the moon, in about 10 years. Computers are developed and utilized.
When push comes to shove, what really has changed drastically since then? Yes, computers have become beyond commonplace, but they were developed in that time frame. I'll grant you phones went from hanging on the wall to fitting in our pocket. But beyond that...not so much. Cars haven't really changed meaningfully since what, the 1950s or so, when automatic transmissions and air conditioners hit the market.
Heck growing up in the 60s and 70s, we pretty much assumed that we'd have flying cars and men on Mars by 2000. We'd certainly have colonies on the moon. Heck, we haven't put a man on the moon in nearly 45 years. Hell, the US can't even put a man in space any more. We've largely returned to the 50s. There was even a time a few decades ago when we had supersonic commercial air travel. Now, nope.
At the rate we're "progressing", I fear the next generation will revert to living in caves. But with really cool cell phones.
Honestly, I'd say the rate of major, life changing technological development has dropped off drastically in the last few decades. Look at someone born in say 1900. At that point, only a few major cites had any electricity. Automobiles were essentially non-existant, only a handful of primitive ones existed as a novelty. The first airplane flight wouldn't occur for another 6 years. TV of course hadn't been invented and radio was very primitive.
Look at the changes from 1900-1970. It's amazing-electrification of the country. Personal automobiles become commonplace. Man takes his first flight, to commercial air travel becomes common to jet air travel becomes commercialized, all in about 50 years. Telephones, radio and TV are invented and become common in nearly every home. Nuclear power is developed power generation and transportation. We go from not being able to launch a rocket, to putting a satellite and then a man in space, to putting a man on the moon, in about 10 years. Computers are developed and utilized.
When push comes to shove, what really has changed drastically since then? Yes, computers have become beyond commonplace, but they were developed in that time frame. I'll grant you phones went from hanging on the wall to fitting in our pocket. But beyond that...not so much. Cars haven't really changed meaningfully since what, the 1950s or so, when automatic transmissions and air conditioners hit the market.
Heck growing up in the 60s and 70s, we pretty much assumed that we'd have flying cars and men on Mars by 2000. We'd certainly have colonies on the moon. Heck, we haven't put a man on the moon in nearly 45 years. Hell, the US can't even put a man in space any more. We've largely returned to the 50s. There was even a time a few decades ago when we had supersonic commercial air travel. Now, nope.
At the rate we're "progressing", I fear the next generation will revert to living in caves. But with really cool cell phones.
You should probably look at the biotech and medical.
You should probably look at the biotech and medical.
Medical development is an area I'd agree with you about. Back when I was a kid, cancer was a death sentence. No one recovered, it was just a question of when. Now, many, many people survive.
Flip side, back in the 60s and 70s or slightly later many preventable diseases had been largely wiped out. These days, the anti-science movement is going full swing, and primitive superstitions have wiped out the progress made by simple vaccines. So it's a bit of a mixed bag. I see signs of the same think in other areas. Genetic engineering has the chance to make food safer, cheaper and more available, with the use of fewer nasty chemicals, than at any time in the past. Yet primitive superstitions are attacking and hindering their use. The scientific education and knowledge in this country seems to be in the toilet among many people in this country.
Medical development is an area I'd agree with you about. Back when I was a kid, cancer was a death sentence. No one recovered, it was just a question of when. Now, many, many people survive.
Flip side, back in the 60s and 70s or slightly later many preventable diseases had been largely wiped out. These days, the anti-science movement is going full swing, and primitive superstitions have wiped out the progress made by simple vaccines. So it's a bit of a mixed bag. I see signs of the same think in other areas. Genetic engineering has the chance to make food safer, cheaper and more available, with the use of fewer nasty chemicals, than at any time in the past. Yet primitive superstitions are attacking and hindering their use. The scientific education and knowledge in this country seems to be in the toilet among many people in this country.
It isn't primitive superstitions wiping out progress, it is sophisticated superstitions. Malaria was brought back by fear of what the pesticides used to kill the malaria-spreading insects were doing to the environment. People have caught diseases we have vaccinations for out of fear that the vaccinations themselves cause other health problems. These aren't primitive superstitions about the supernatural, these are fears about technology created by technology. And that's significant because fears of that sort are going to be harder to control than primitive superstitions. If the advance itself generates the fear of that advance, that's much harder to deal with than a primitive fear. It means that each new advance is going to come with brand new fears and resistances to overcome.
The major change it brings that has been going on since industrial age and just accelerates faster is the fewer number of humans needed to produce ever more than the past. There is a discussion in Europe of what happens to those young people now having been unemployed for so long they may never get to point they might have without this recession. Some even if they do will be starting their careers in there 30's likely. 50% youth unemployment is a on going problem in Europe will many consequences in future years. its hard to convince a young man that is he unlikely to replace his father in work type.
An article in today's paper: Mexican drug cartels using hobby drones modified to be self guiding via GPS, delivering drug payloads up to 7 pounds able to go 5-7 miles across the border into the US. And the feds have yet to track the origin.
As far as the lenses go I don't see them making it to the general public any time soon simply becaue people don't like to wear glasses.... e.g. 3d TV, Google glass etc.
The biggest hurdle into the future is how a capitalistic society transforms itself, I don't see how either business's or workers survive because they are interdependent. Workers need jobs and business's need people with money in their pocket. Note when I say workers I'm referring to everyone.
you might be surprised. Google glasses failed due to pricing and privacy concerns. I have a Samsung Gear VR headset, and....its actually amazingly functional. I watch movies in a virtual cinema and....it works. it works well! Requires a note 4 phone, and the VR headset is only $200. I highly recommend them. Theres a ton of content and abilities that are catching up with the hardware. The 3D is amazing and very immersive.
Virtual reality is here, but augmented reality as per my first post is new.
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