Quote:
Originally Posted by WestCobb
Huckabee doesn't have a chance in hell. The business wing of the GOP (which is to say it's controlling interest by far) doesn't like him. He wouldn't even come close to getting the nomination. If he did run, it would be an insurgency campaign.
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You might want to reconsider that with your brain turned on. Of course if he was running for the Democratic nomination, he would have no chance. I think you may be projecting your views from what the Democratic electorate's perspective onto the Republican electorate, which suffice it to say is not a sound basis for analyzing Huckabee's chances.
Here is something for you to consider, if you can imagine the many millions of Republican primary voters evaluating Huckabee without your pre-established biases against him. From an article at Real Clear Politics a few weeks ago that focuses on Huckabee's prospects in the early primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, then the first Super Tuesday race:
Mike Huckabee's Best Friend: The Calendar
1. Huckabee leads the hypothetical GOP field by 6.2 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls and has held or shared the lead when included as an option in
every public survey conducted in the state this year.
2. In 2008, Huckabee decided to compete anyway in the Granite State, and his somewhat respectable yet distant third-place showing there slowed the momentum he had generated in Iowa....There is little doubt that the state poses the highest hurdle for Huckabee on the early nominating calendar, but one that he is poised to sidestep rather than scale.
3. The higher profile first-in-the-South primary in South Carolina indeed remains a particularly enticing prize for Huckabee, who finished in a close second place to John McCain there in 2008....there is little doubt that a substantial segment of the South Carolina Republican electorate remains culturally and ideologically aligned with Huckabee—giving him a distinct chance of success in a state where he retains a wide swath of loyal friends and advisers.
4. Assuming Mitt Romney—who won Nevada in both 2008 and 2012—does not enter the 2016 race, that state will be up for grabs, and Huckabee’s aides believe he is well-positioned to compete there. One reason is that Nevada hosts a caucus rather than a primary—a restrictive format conducive to strong turnout from the kinds of deeply committed backers that Huckabee tends to attract, though it figures for that reason to be perhaps even more advantageous to Rand Paul.
5. But Huckabee’s most valuable trump card in the entire 2016 calendar comes on March 1 when officials from five states in the heart of the former Confederacy—Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi and Tennessee—are taking
steps toward hosting what would effectively become a Super Southern Primary. In 2008, Huckabee was the victor in each of those southern states except for Mississippi, which held its primary a week after he dropped out of the race.
6. “You can’t line up states better,” a Huckabee confidant said of the proposed March 1 southern primaries. “And that brings into play who the real southerner in the race is. Ted Cruz and Rick Perry, with all due respect to Texans, they’re just not southerners like an Arkansan, a Mississippian, South Carolinian or Alabaman. They’re just not.”
Huckabee will likely finish in the top two in Iowa (#1 in 2008), South Carolina (#2 in 2008) and with that momentum he could place in the top three in Nevada. In the Super Tuesday states, if he wins 4 of five again like he did in 2008, the fact that these are all early this time will propel him past the first two rounds of major cuts in the Republican field. That alone will establish him as a major factor in this race, which as some people here appear to be forgetting he was in 2008 as well.
Keep reading the Daily Kos talking points on this is you want to. But Huckabee is a smooth operator and a very attractive candidate to many Americans. And after eight years of Obama, many people will be looking for a massive change and not more of the same (cough...Hillary...cough).
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