Texas - Champion of GOP policies, heading for RECESSION? (legal, Obama, downturn)
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For several years now, wingnuts on this site have been pointing to Texas as an example of the success of GOP policies while pointing to Blue states as examples of economic "failure". Well, it now appears - thanks to low oil prices - that mighty Texas may be headed for recession like it had in the 80's (the rest of the country - probably not so much (since Texas is so much dependent upon oil)). And - just to placate those wingnuts who claim this is all left-wing spin, I'll using use a RIGHT-WING source (ie NEWSMAX):
"...Economists are not alone in fearing a repeat of the recession of the 1980s.
“I wish I could paint a rosy picture, but I’m a realist. This is my fourth downturn. Everything’s going to get pretty ugly. It’ll take a couple of years for this to work itself out and get back on track," Larry Oldham, who owns a Midland, Texas, oil company, tells the Houston Chronicle.
Now, my point here is NOT to "gloat" over the economic troubles that Texas is about to experience, nor is it to say that GOP policies in Texas led to the recession. My point is that much of the success of Texas has had LITTLE to do with it being a RED state and a LOT to do with the natural resources the state happens to be sitting on. Dependence on those natural resources - notable OIL - led to the economic boom in Texas and to it's economic decline during DOWN TIMES. It ain't so much POLITICS that's driven Texas success and failure as it is an ACCIDENT OF GEOLOGY.
Now, my point here is NOT to "gloat" over the economic troubles that Texas is about to experience, nor is it to say that GOP policies in Texas led to the recession. My point is that much of the success of Texas has had LITTLE to do with it being a RED state and a LOT to do with the natural resources the state happens to be sitting on. Dependence on those natural resources - notable OIL - led to the economic boom in Texas and to it's economic decline during DOWN TIMES. It ain't so much POLITICS that's driven Texas success and failure as it is an ACCIDENT OF GEOLOGY.
Ken
Not necessarily. Texas avoided the housing bust due to higher property taxes and strict limits on HELOCs. Avoiding that housing bust kept Texas strong while other states faltered and that gave way to a flock of folks running to Texas with their money.
So you are not going to "gloat" over something that didn't happen yet ?
Oil accounts for only 10% of our state's output today compared to over 20% in the 80's.
Not necessarily. Texas avoided the housing bust due to higher property taxes and strict limits on HELOCs. Avoiding that housing bust kept Texas strong while other states faltered and that gave way to a flock of folks running to Texas with their money.
So you are not going to "gloat" over something that didn't happen yet ?
Oil accounts for only 10% of our state's output today compared to over 20% in the 80's.
Some of what you say is true (Texas had stronger regulations regarding HELOC etc - pretty ironic for a Red State), but another reason Texas escaped the worst of the housing crash is because home prices didn't get as high to begin with.
In any event, it sounds like Texas may be in a housing bubble NOW (especially if the Texas economy turns south):
Because of our high property taxes which I stated in my post.
That kept the flippers at bay.
Parts of Texas are in a bubble. The big cities where the transplants flocked to are seeing bidding wars.
Most of the natives have been priced out.
I got priced out of the Austin area myself. My property taxes went from $2K to $6K in less than 10 years.
I moved and am back to $2K now. My old home is $8K this year.
Texas will, and has already, lost some jobs due to the lower oil prices, but as the articles note, Texas is much more diversified that previously.
It will also affect those who receive oil and gas royalties. My mother had been receiving some $3,000.00 per month before the downturn, and her latest check was for $600.00. My remaining royalty check has gone from $100 or so per month down to $30 every two months (fortunately, last year, I sold off my main mineral interest for a great price while prices were still very high).
Because of our high property taxes which I stated in my post.
That kept the flippers at bay.
High taxes - pretty ironic for a RED state wouldn't you say?
Not to mention the strong regulation of HELOCs (also ironic for a RED state).
Aren't both of those policies typically Democratic thinking?
Usually the GOP pushes for LOW TAXES and LESS REGULATION. In this case, by your own admission, the OPPOSITE of that saved Texas from the worst of the housing crash (and subsequent downturn).
Texas will, and has already, lost some jobs due to the lower oil prices, but as the articles note, Texas is much more diversified that previously.
It will also affect those who receive oil and gas royalties. My mother had been receiving some $3,000.00 per month before the downturn, and her latest check was for $600.00. My remaining royalty check has gone from $100 or so per month down to $30 every two months (fortunately, last year, I sold off my main mineral interest for a great price while prices were still very high).
Texas is no doubt more diversified than in the past - which is a good thing, so hopefully it won't hit Texas as bad this time around.
High taxes - pretty ironic for a RED state wouldn't you say?
Not to mention the strong regulation of HELOCs (also ironic for a RED state).
Aren't both of those policies typically Democratic thinking?
Ken
Texas politics is not the same as national politics.
Property taxes are local. And I'm fine with that because if they get too high..you just move.
Local people decide local policies and vote on whether to raise their own taxes with new taxing entities.
Most of the high taxing districts are the liberal cities..Austin, Houston, DFW.
Regulations on home financing are part of the Texas constitution and go back to 1845.
Fiscal conservativeness is not democratic thinking.
And after the last crash in Texas back in the 80's even more regulations were put in place to prevent that from happening again. Looks like it worked.
Texas politics is not the same as national politics.
Property taxes are local. And I'm fine with that because if they get too high..you just move.
Local people decide local policies and vote on whether to raise their own taxes with new taxing entities.
Most of the high taxing districts are the liberal cities..Austin, Houston, DFW.
Regulations on home financing are part of the Texas constitution and go back to 1845.
Fiscal conservativeness is not democratic thinking.
And after the last crash in Texas back in the 80's even more regulations were put in place to prevent that from happening again. Looks like it worked.
True enough, but - at least at the national level - experience has shown that fiscal conservativeness is not REPUBLICAN thinking either. The GOP in DC talks about it a LOT but doesn't really practice it any more than the Democrats do - they just have different priorities on WHERE and HOW they spend.
Ok, so your argument is that the Liberal cities with the high property taxes saved Texas from the housing crash?
Ken
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