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Old 02-10-2015, 08:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsjustmeagain View Post
German exports doubled about every 10 years since 1950. Germany would be an export powerhouse without the Euro as well.
I doubt that. Germany in the 1950s was boosted by Marshall aid, then the EEC, and then unification with the GDR. Events like that are not occurring anymore and without the Euro I doubt it would be so robust.
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Old 02-10-2015, 08:41 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
I doubt that. Germany in the 1950s was boosted by Marshall aid, then the EEC, and then unification with the GDR. Events like that are not occurring anymore and without the Euro I doubt it would be so robust.
They have a high national savings rate. That all by itself tends to drive exports.
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Old 02-10-2015, 08:47 PM
 
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Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
They have a high national savings rate. That all by itself tends to drive exports.
So do the Indians, it doesn't seem to work for them.
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Old 02-10-2015, 08:51 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
I doubt that. Germany in the 1950s was boosted by Marshall aid, then the EEC, and then unification with the GDR. Events like that are not occurring anymore and without the Euro I doubt it would be so robust.
I have no doubt at all. Germany is exporting massively to the BRICS. Over the last decade German exports have shifted from Europe to Asia. Germany is producing worldclass products and without the Euro German consumption would be stimulated through a stronger currency. The argument of Germany being an export Giant because of the Euro doesn't hold up by an objective Analysis.
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Old 02-10-2015, 09:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsjustmeagain View Post
I have no doubt at all. Germany is exporting massively to the BRICS. Over the last decade German exports have shifted from Europe to Asia. Germany is producing worldclass products and without the Euro German consumption would be stimulated through a stronger currency. The argument of Germany being an export Giant because of the Euro doesn't hold up by an objective Analysis.
Actually experts disagree.

Why Germany needs the*euro - Fortune
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Old 02-10-2015, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Windsor, Ontario, Canada
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Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
arguably yes it is. If Germany hadn't lent Greece the money to keep spending beyond their means then they would've been broke in the 20th century. With less damage to everyone.
Oh, okay. Well, if that's the way sh*t works, then I'm going to go have write a strongly worded letter to VISA regarding that damn credit card they gave me.
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Old 02-10-2015, 11:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Egbert View Post
I doubt that. Germany in the 1950s was boosted by Marshall aid, then the EEC, and then unification with the GDR. Events like that are not occurring anymore and without the Euro I doubt it would be so robust.
If anything, the unification cost West Germany and arm and a leb and they are still paying for it today.
Germany is a strong exporter, as they had always been, with or without Euro.
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Old 02-11-2015, 07:30 AM
 
Location: West Coast of Europe
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Originally Posted by Camlon View Post
That is wishful thinking from Syriza-supporters. Greece needs EU a lot more, than EU needs Greece. Remember that the situation is different from 2012. Greece is not getting kicked out because of austerity, they are getting kicked out because the leaders of Syriza are too hard to work with.

In the event of a default, Italy, Ireland and Portugal will not change course.
Italy: They got a deficit that is lower than France, and is under the 3% rule. In addition their debt is mostly owned by Italians, so they cannot default.
Ireland: They have a stable debt level, and unemployment has dropped to 10.5%. They are not going to screw up their recovery by making a big deal with EU.
Portugal: They got slightly more reasons to ask for a debt relief, but currently that has not been the Portuguese way, and there are no large third parties. The performance of Portugal has been good, and I don't think they want to screw it up.

So that leaves Spain, but Podemos only has 25% of the vote in the opinion polls. There are no 50 seat bonus in Spain, and that means he will need to create a coalition with the social democrats. But if Greece crash and burn, then the socialist and people's party will form a grand coalition or Podemos need to promise they will not follow in the footstep of Syriza. That means there could be some tough negotiations, but Spain will not use default as a threat in the negotiations.

In 2012, Spain, Portugal and Ireland had many of the same problems as Greece. Now Greece is alone, and if they don't want to cooperate, then it is better to get rid of them,
Since I live in Portugal, I see it differently. The country is a mess, poverty and unemployment are rampant, solid state-run companies have been sold off to foreigners for little money, the health system is failing. Wealth is being transferred from the poor and middle class to the wealthy. Higher education - the foundation of a better future - has been slashed. Billions have been wasted on bad banks, while lots of people can't afford to pay food and utilities.
The Troika measures have caused more problems than solutions. And experts have predicted just that from the very beginning. It's almost as if the Troika ideology is actually meant to destroy those countries for decades to come. And it makes sense because Germany only booms as long as competition is weak. There are only so many buyers on this planet, and if, say, Iberian companies got a bigger market share, Germany's share and hence its entire economy including employment shrinks.

The whole notion that there is a right way to run economies and countries is weird. There is no success in this system unless others fail. So it is a bit ridiculous when the successful complain that others are failing. Germany itself is booming not least because they are exploiting their population. Just recently I read that the percentage of the population threatened by poverty is rising considerably. A lot of workers suffer from psychological and health problems because of exhaustion. There are more and more working poor.

Greece certainly has its own very specific problems, most of all tax avoidance on a huge scale. I don't know why that has become so much of a problem there. But since it is responsible for billions of euros in losses each year, it would have made sense to focus on that problem instead of slashing administrations, health, etc. Whether people like to hear it or not, there are not too many civil servants, despite the high number. They are all doing necessary work. And just because people are fired, that doesn't mean that the work gets less, it stays the same, hence more human errors and backlog. We have the same problem here, the remaining civil servants are drowning in work, which causes more burnout, i.e. even fewer employees to do the work.

Ireland has one big advantage, they are an English-speaking country, which has attracted international companies for decades, also helped by unfair tax incentives, which have only recently been stopped because other EU countries complained about those unfair practices. Still, those companies are already there now, and I doubt they will move to other countries just because of those tax changes.

In the long term I think Germany should leave the EU, it can survive on its own, and the rest of Europe will be doing much better without the simplistic and egoistic German manipulation.
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Old 02-11-2015, 12:07 PM
 
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"Ireland had one big advantage - they are an English speaking country"...
What advantage China had (Mandarin ?) convincing the entire globe to invest there...?
Don't people understand that with a low currency Greece can attract more than with the Euro? It makes a difference if workers are paid $3 an hour vs $15...
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Old 02-11-2015, 12:49 PM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,384,773 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oberon_1 View Post
"Ireland had one big advantage - they are an English speaking country"...
What advantage China had (Mandarin ?) convincing the entire globe to invest there...?
Don't people understand that with a low currency Greece can attract more than with the Euro? It makes a difference if workers are paid $3 an hour vs $15...
with there own currency they can get full employment without out side investment. they just print there own money and put it to work running around inside their country putting everyone to work.
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