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Old 03-12-2015, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,824,540 times
Reputation: 1438

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vejadu View Post
The explanation is that with super-low interest rates and easy access to capital, the stock market is the only real place for people to currently invest their money. Is someone with money to invest going to put it in a "high-yield" savings account that earns 0.75%? Not when the stock market averages over 10x that return.

The rich have gotten richer at a faster pace under Obama than in almost any other time in history. Money has been cheap to borrow for several years, which has led to market gains that do not match what's happening in the economy. Real unemployment is still high. Wages are stagnant.

This is undeniably a bubble, and it's going to burst. When it does, the rich will bail out and buy back in after the dust has settled, which is what they do after every bubble, and the gap between rich and poor will get even larger.
If the market valuations based on earnings were at bubble levels then your theory might hold water, but they are not. Yes, the market levels are at the high end; they won't likely see the increases of the last several years, unless earnings continue to grow.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:18 PM
 
5,888 posts, read 3,201,221 times
Reputation: 5548
Every president wants to kick the can down the road. Obama has merely delayed, not resolved, the structural problems of the US economy. And he can't, really.

-interest rates , unsustainable
-deficits, unsustainable
-national debt, unsustainable

Any candidate who pledged to actually do anything about these issues would be unelectable. Because voters are stupid and they enjoy their ignorance. They prefer denial and sweet lies. Nobody wants to be confronted with the harsh reality and the reforms and the austerity that acknowledging said reality would demand.

And the people who least want to engage with reality is the political class and their beneficiaries. Remember that half the people in this country are paying ZERO in federal income taxes - paying nothing at all to support the federal government. Do you think THEY want that to change? Hell no! Because as soon as people start dealing with reality and acting rationally, they're all done for! No more crazy compensation and retirement schemes. No more redistributionist welfare schemes and scams. It will all have to go!
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:19 PM
 
5,888 posts, read 3,201,221 times
Reputation: 5548
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamSmyth View Post
If the market valuations based on earnings were at bubble levels then your theory might hold water, but they are not. Yes, the market levels are at the high end; they won't likely see the increases of the last several years, unless earnings continue to grow.
Well they are, in tech. Huge tech bubble. Just like last time.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:21 PM
 
5,888 posts, read 3,201,221 times
Reputation: 5548
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vejadu View Post
The explanation is that with super-low interest rates and easy access to capital, the stock market is the only real place for people to currently invest their money. Is someone with money to invest going to put it in a "high-yield" savings account that earns 0.75%? Not when the stock market averages over 10x that return.

The rich have gotten richer at a faster pace under Obama than in almost any other time in history. Money has been cheap to borrow for several years, which has led to market gains that do not match what's happening in the economy. Real unemployment is still high. Wages are stagnant.

This is undeniably a bubble, and it's going to burst. When it does, the rich will bail out and buy back in after the dust has settled, which is what they do after every bubble, and the gap between rich and poor will get even larger.
Nailed it. Only now even more people are caught in the net.
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Old 03-15-2015, 09:21 PM
 
Location: NJ
18,665 posts, read 19,909,023 times
Reputation: 7313
Deficits and the national debt will not derail the fine earnings which have brought us the best DJ ever, and I suspect we still have more DJ growth to come. Corps become far leaner and faster to respond after the late 2008 meltdown, which preempts any realistic possibility it would occur again.
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Old 03-15-2015, 10:17 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,782 posts, read 17,291,001 times
Reputation: 7990
Quote:
Originally Posted by marcopolo View Post
Wrong question, wrong framework.

The US rally is primarily due to the Republican success in slowing down the anti-growth, anti-jobs agenda of the Democrats. Therefore, the needless burdens inflicted on the economy by Democrat policies have ended up slowing growth, not ending it, producing a steady economy with sub-par growth but no boom.

There will not be a bust until we have a boom. And Democrats have regulated and legislated booms out of existence for the present.
It should have been a headline that federal spending has declined for 3 years in a row.
//www.city-data.com/forum/38802440-post209.html

History will look upon John Boehner favorably.
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Old 03-16-2015, 07:06 AM
 
335 posts, read 422,374 times
Reputation: 421
Quote:
Originally Posted by DavidRudisha View Post
Or will it crash before he leaves office?
It'll crash when Apple crashes.
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