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Old 01-11-2008, 11:00 PM
 
Location: Minnesota
206 posts, read 577,385 times
Reputation: 83

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For those of you not familiar with the topic, here is the relevant wikipedia article:

Peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Quote:
Peak oil is the point in time at which the maximum global petroleum production rate is reached, after which the rate of production enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, the availability of conventional oil will drop and prices will rise, perhaps dramatically.
Quote:
Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy.
It is an interesting subject, and certainly one worthy of concern. I've noticed a few sites out there who think that the elimination of fossil fuels will result in the world economy effectively collapsing over night:

Quote:
The widespread use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of Economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution, allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that when oil production decreases, human culture and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. The impact of Peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives.
Personally though, I tend to think that the catastrophe scenario is rather unlikely. While I could see society being restructured on a large scale as a result of the loss of plentiful petroleum products, I find it hard to believe that everything would completely break down, or that society as we know it would collapse.

Mitigation of peak oil - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

If nothing else, we have solar, wind, and nuclear power at current, and if nothing else I would tend to see the future with a lot of electric cars being powered by nuclear power plants or similar.

There's also bio diesel and other alternative fuel which is coming into the market. If anything I think the concern over this issue and related issues has resulted in better technological breakthroughs than I would have expected if the scenario were put to me ten years ago.

Similarly, the question of when we will actually run out is still somewhat up in the air, and if you look at some of the past estimates:

Quote:
* In 1855, people could only access whatever oil happened to seep to the surface, and an advertisement for Kier's Rock Oil stated, "Hurry, before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory."

* In 1874, the state geologist of Pennsylvania, the United States' leading oil-producing state, said that all the oil would be gone by 1878.

* In 1920, the U.S. Geological Survey stated that the world only had 60 billion barrels of oil left.

* In 1950, geologists estimated that the world had 600 billion barrels of oil.

* Since the 1960s, major oil surveys have shown P95 EUR of close to 2,000 billion barrels (see below).

* In 1970, scientists estimated that the world had 1,500 billion barrels of oil.

* In 1994, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the world had 2,400 billion barrels of oil.

* In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that the world had 3,000 billion barrels of oil (P95 EUR of 2,300 billion barrels—see below).
Quote:
None of this means that new oil is forming, or that peak oil will never happen, but it implies that technological advances have allowed the discovery and recovery of more oil than was historically expected. As oil estimates have remained steady since the 1960s this appears to no longer be the case, as can be seen above. Nevertheless, one significant source of uncertainty is the continuing inability to independently audit stated reserves from many of the world's biggest oil producers.
It is also entirely possible that technology may make it efficient to harvest oil we couldn't effectively reach previously and further extend the life of petroleum dependant industry. If nothing else, that sort of thing could help to wean a society off of fossil fuels.


========

Anyhow, those are my thoughts on it. What sort of impact do you think would be likely?
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Old 01-11-2008, 11:15 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
14,044 posts, read 27,145,312 times
Reputation: 7373
You have alternative sources such as oil sands in Canada and sugar based ethanol. Overall, I expect this problem to be resolved via alternative sources and ultimately through renewable technology advances:

Alberta Energy: Oil Sands

As Brazil Fills Up on Ethanol, It Weans Off Energy Imports (http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=6817 - broken link)
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Old 01-12-2008, 06:47 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 17,322,782 times
Reputation: 2093
even oil sand has a point where it will be exhausted, no?

I have a feeling this ethanol thing isn't a good idea. I think they should focus on electric personally.
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Old 01-12-2008, 07:37 AM
 
20,187 posts, read 23,780,739 times
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Electricity IS made from alternative fuel sources. We have to realistic and separate FUEL SOURCES and energy equivalents. Electricity, heat, etc are more of energy equivalents but coal, ethanol, gasoline, hydroelectric, etc. are fuel sources. However the point is, we need something to replace oil because obviously we can't use it forever. Solar is great but not right now, efficiency is too low (maybe in the future, but that would put electric companies out of business - I doubt they will "let" that happen and the government will help them with that). There are plenty of areas in the U.S. where there isn't a lot of sun, those areas would suffer. A lot of people mentioned electric power but imagine if every car started using electric, where would the electric companies get there electric power from? When you put such a drain on using electricity, the prices go WAY up (a lot from fraudulent business activities). Imagine paying triple your electricity bill, no thanks. People have said ethanol but that is a really, really poor substitute, plants simply don't grow that fast to meet demand, and I expect demand to increase (as well as prices, basically they would play the market to get more money. Something like, aww the temperature was 1 degree higher than forecasted, double price of ethanol fuel). Growing plants drain the soil of nutrients, it simply not viable to use ethanol given the increase in fuel demand. Farmers will cut back on making more plants just to increase prices (as oil companies are infamous at doing). Coal has the same problem, it is limited in how it can be used and also suffers from the same problem as oil, there is only a certain amount of it. Wind doesn't sound like a good idea (more of a fad). So what alternative fuel choices? To be honest, I don't know and I hate it when candidates say we need to find an alternative fuel source... I hate it when they are lying like that because they have NO IDEA what they are talking about. But since it is a mainstream idea, they all say it. The best source at this minute is solar, improve its efficiency as HIGH as possible and create AWESOME batteries to hold that power (essential in poor sun areas). I can promise you the government isn't going to do it, as the electric companies will try to kill it as well as oil companies, ethanol companies, and any other competitor. Problem is, the government NEEDS to get away from business and let a free market reign to create the necessary solar power. Otherwise people will just kill it to "maximize" profit.
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Old 01-12-2008, 08:14 AM
 
Location: America
6,993 posts, read 17,322,782 times
Reputation: 2093
evil

I didn't understand what you meant by "electricity is made from alternative fuel sources".

Correct me if I am wrong, but the generator that process uranium for Nuclear is run on petroleum right? From what I read (and again my information could be wrong) is that most energy plants rely on some use of petroleum.

As far as the other stuff you said, you should read NYC's plan for 2030, its awesome and voted one of the best by U.N.

I think solar is one of the best ideas as well, but companies could still charge us for it. Not everyone is going to be able to afford solar panels on their homes and such.

I think long term our cities that don't have mass transit, urban farming and other plans are going to be in a crap load of trouble in the near future.
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Old 01-12-2008, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Maple Valley, WA
982 posts, read 3,301,549 times
Reputation: 451
I started this thread a while back - thought you might like to read it:

//www.city-data.com/forum/polit...ts-moment.html

As far as alternative energy though, I think hydrogen is where it's at.
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Old 01-12-2008, 12:24 PM
LM1
 
Location: NEFL/Chi, IL
833 posts, read 992,995 times
Reputation: 344
Algae oil biodiesel.
Most everything else can be taken care of via wind turbines and solar.
I hope that humanity makes this advance as a collective, rather than as little national fragments. Allow the innovators and producers to profit as much as they can, but I sure hope that our next phase of energy resources aren't restricted to a few narrow, huge enterprises that hold us liable to their technological monopoly.
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Old 01-13-2008, 08:39 PM
ck9
 
Location: a van down by the river
71 posts, read 123,841 times
Reputation: 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrsengle View Post
I started this thread a while back - thought you might like to read it:

//www.city-data.com/forum/polit...ts-moment.html

As far as alternative energy though, I think hydrogen is where it's at.

hydrogen as a fuel for the states is a joke, everyone sees the footage of the water coming out of the tailpipe and thinks wow thats great withou thinking of where hydrogen comes from. sure hydrogen is the most abunant elelment on earth but its locked up in other substances. most hydrogen is derived from electrolizing water( passing current through water) which is not hard to do. however more energy is spent getting the hydrogen than you get from the hydrogen itself and since the vast majority of power in the u.s. is generated from fossil fuels using hydrogen in cars would probably make global warming worse. another problem is the storage, to pack enough into a car for three hundred miles of driving requires a tank that would be half the size of your car. not to mention the storage temperature having to be very cold so it wont boil off overnight. there is one country that has been succesful with hydrogen, Iceland. this is possible for them because their power is generated from geothermal sources and is extremely cheap to produce. plus a network of sixteen stations covers the whole country. oh and i almost forgot radioactive heavy water is the bi product from electrolizing water. that is all.
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Maple Valley, WA
982 posts, read 3,301,549 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by ck9 View Post
hydrogen as a fuel for the states is a joke, everyone sees the footage of the water coming out of the tailpipe and thinks wow thats great withou thinking of where hydrogen comes from. sure hydrogen is the most abunant elelment on earth but its locked up in other substances. most hydrogen is derived from electrolizing water( passing current through water) which is not hard to do. however more energy is spent getting the hydrogen than you get from the hydrogen itself and since the vast majority of power in the u.s. is generated from fossil fuels using hydrogen in cars would probably make global warming worse. another problem is the storage, to pack enough into a car for three hundred miles of driving requires a tank that would be half the size of your car. not to mention the storage temperature having to be very cold so it wont boil off overnight. there is one country that has been succesful with hydrogen, Iceland. this is possible for them because their power is generated from geothermal sources and is extremely cheap to produce. plus a network of sixteen stations covers the whole country. oh and i almost forgot radioactive heavy water is the bi product from electrolizing water. that is all.
Don't forget that platinum isn't cheap, either. Who needs tridium when we've got gallium and aluminum (er, aluminium)?

New process generates hydrogen from aluminum alloy to run engines, fuel cells
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