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It is important for everyone to know where we stand in world politics at the moment. When the Soviet Union collapsed back in the late 80s it was the first real breakup of what was known as the new world order that was established at the conclusion of WW2. Then east and west Germany united. Now the borders that were established by France and England in the middle east are being redrawn and that started with the Lebanese civil war back in the 80s.. And now the rise of china and regional powers like Iran and the Philippines and Brazil taking shape along with the rise of India and other powers. What we have is the collapse of the old WW2 order and another new order being established in the world. In my opinion it is going to be a rough road ahead establishing this new world order and I believe WW3 is what is going to establish the new world order as ww2 established the last world order. So what will the new world order look like when the smoke clears and things get back to normal again(way into the future of course). The U.S. will be a major player I believe unless we lose a war and in that case we will withdraw into a civil war with a collapsed economy. China will be a major player but I don't know about other countries. So what do you think the new world order will look like?
If I could predict the future, I wouldn't be wasting time sitting in my underwear and typing on an internet forum. But just the same, geopolitics are changing fast, and I often wonder these days where it will lead.
To me, today's world looks more like the pre-WWI era than the pre-WWII era. Just like a century ago, we're in a period of rapidly changing technology... a wild-card that frankly nobody can reliably predict. Just like a century ago, the world is controlled by several aging/interlocking empires vying for power and resources. And much like a century ago, multiple nations are locked into military alliances REQUIRING them to enter a potential war (I'm mainly speaking of NATO here). You could argue that this is a sprung trap... just requires something to trigger it.
Russia WAS feeling her oats during the recent oil boom. And now with the price of oil being kept artificially low, they're hurting. They're already engaging in military actions and provocations... and they're NOT desperate yet. But if oil stays low, they may become desperate soon. And the funny thing about wars is that world-altering conflicts can start with the most minor events. WWI started with a single asassination (a tactic the Russians have already employed multiple times in Ukraine). Our involvement in WWII began largely with sanctions against Japan (a tactic we're HEAVILY employing right now). The Cold War was essentially triggered by some public comments by Truman. So there's LOTS of historical precedent for world-changing events triggered by relatively minor and even mundane actions.
Today's world is so different though that frankly it's anybody's guess as to how this will play out. Personally I hope that IF hostilities between major powers resume, it's in the form of Cold War II. And I don't think it's an unreasonable hope. Fact is that both the U.S. and Russia are oligarchies. If direct war between superpowers breaks out, Nukes are a very real possibility. And those weapons if used are truly a danger to even the oligarchs themselves. Not saying I think it's impossible they'll be used... just saying that the Charles Kochs of the world don't want to be irradiated any more than we do.
The big question right now is China. Their size and power could easily be the deciding factor- and that's why both Russia and the U.S. are courting China so hard. I'm of the opinion that that's what this trans-pacific trade deal is all about: strengthening our economic ties to China hopefully at Russia's expense. I think China is savvy enough that they'll take any sweet deals offered by either side, and won't choose a partner to dance with so long as the free drinks keep flowing.
If I could predict the future, I wouldn't be wasting time sitting in my underwear and typing on an internet forum. But just the same, geopolitics are changing fast, and I often wonder these days where it will lead.
To me, today's world looks more like the pre-WWI era than the pre-WWII era. Just like a century ago, we're in a period of rapidly changing technology... a wild-card that frankly nobody can reliably predict. Just like a century ago, the world is controlled by several aging/interlocking empires vying for power and resources. And much like a century ago, multiple nations are locked into military alliances REQUIRING them to enter a potential war (I'm mainly speaking of NATO here). You could argue that this is a sprung trap... just requires something to trigger it.
Russia WAS feeling her oats during the recent oil boom. And now with the price of oil being kept artificially low, they're hurting. They're already engaging in military actions and provocations... and they're NOT desperate yet. But if oil stays low, they may become desperate soon. And the funny thing about wars is that world-altering conflicts can start with the most minor events. WWI started with a single asassination (a tactic the Russians have already employed multiple times in Ukraine). Our involvement in WWII began largely with sanctions against Japan (a tactic we're HEAVILY employing right now). The Cold War was essentially triggered by some public comments by Truman. So there's LOTS of historical precedent for world-changing events triggered by relatively minor and even mundane actions.
Today's world is so different though that frankly it's anybody's guess as to how this will play out. Personally I hope that IF hostilities between major powers resume, it's in the form of Cold War II. And I don't think it's an unreasonable hope. Fact is that both the U.S. and Russia are oligarchies. If direct war between superpowers breaks out, Nukes are a very real possibility. And those weapons if used are truly a danger to even the oligarchs themselves. Not saying I think it's impossible they'll be used... just saying that the Charles Kochs of the world don't want to be irradiated any more than we do.
The big question right now is China. Their size and power could easily be the deciding factor- and that's why both Russia and the U.S. are courting China so hard. I'm of the opinion that that's what this trans-pacific trade deal is all about: strengthening our economic ties to China hopefully at Russia's expense. I think China is savvy enough that they'll take any sweet deals offered by either side, and won't choose a partner to dance with so long as the free drinks keep flowing.
Interesting perspective to say the least, I won't comment much on what you said except on the "Cold War II" portion of the text. Quite frankly, maybe a second Cold War is good for the world except in regards to proxy wars, which are arguably being fought now such as what's happening in Ukraine, possibly Iran, the Philippines, Etc. Personally, I believe that a Cold War spurs innovation on multiple-fronts rather that be technologically, educationally, culturally, and etc.
Think of this, with the U.S. being the foremost superpower of the world, the lack of competition (although it's definitely heated up in the last 15 years) has somewhat stalled the country into a more 'comfortable' mindset or in translation: innovating, yet not innovating for 'true' investments.
Modern America defines herself by her enemies. In both world wars and the Cold War, unity against some 'evil' enemy made us a force to be reckoned with. Whether or not those enemies were as evil as we made them out to be is a separate question; point is that America NEEDS a nemesis and doesn't know what to do with herself in the absence of that unifying opponent.
In the 25+ year absense of a credible nemesis, we've turned our self-righteous hostility and paranoia in on ourselves. IMO it's no accident that our current police state really took off after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Since the (supposed) end of the Cold War, we've made every effort to prop up scary/evil muslims as a boogey-man to replace the economically vanquished USSR- and with some success. I mean, they're foreign and lots hate the U.S. as a special bonus, they're largely brown- so we don't feel bad about killing them. But the fact is that the muslims are far from a monolith, and they're NOT a credible existential threat like the Soviets were. All but a few crazies among us know that, but even our supposed foreign policy doves play along to some extent. Because America projects military power. It's who we ARE, and who we've pretty consistently been for a century. Since Nixon's abandonment of the gold standard (and arguably since WWII), our economy and monetary system have depended on projections of military power. We'll find excuses as necessary.
So what we NEED is a proper nemesis. And if any man has what it takes right now... it's Vladimir Putin.
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