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I think the idea that any nation can be prevented from having nuclear weapons is truly weird.
In the beginning, "we (the US) have to do it, because Germany is going to do it." Then "we (the Soviets) have to do it, because the US is doing it." Then "we (the Chinese) have to do it, because the USSR is doing it." Etc.
Once the genie was out of the bottle, there was never any chance of getting it back in.
It's like a reliability engineering problem. Every additional country with nukes increases the likelihood of their use.
I can see a future where everyone will wish that there had been a USA-Soviet pact to not allow any another nuclear states, including in the West.
To be fair, I suspect that the real danger from here on out (aside from a full scale exchange) will be from the world of biosciences.
I think the real motive for this is that if one side of the negotiations has nuclear capabilities and the other does not, the bargaining tables are really uneven. When both have them, it's kind of like when neither have them and it's equalized back out. I think its a projection of power issue, which should hopefully be a short term issue because once the area is proliferated, they no longer mean much.
The scary thing is that some of those leaders are not the most rational.
I didn't see this coming, but it makes sense, and I should have. Looks like the Saudi's want some nuclear weapons, and are buying them from Pakistan. Beating out Iran to be the next nuclear armed middle eastern country.
It's like a reliability engineering problem. Every additional country with nukes increases the likelihood of their use.
I can see a future where everyone will wish that there had been a USA-Soviet pact to not allow any another nuclear states, including in the West.
To be fair, I suspect that the real danger from here on out (aside from a full scale exchange) will be from the world of biosciences.
I think you're right.
It's a lot easier to see a nuclear attack coming than an envelope of anthrax. Wanna really scare yourself? Look at the food in your supermarket, how much of it comes in shipping containers, and how few of those containers are inspected...
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