lets discuss the repercussions if Israel bombs Iran

[nickerman]

Originally Posted by Mircea

What I'm hearing is, "I have no military experience and I'm totally clueless about military operations and logistics."

Fear not, I do.



How does getting "the bomb" mean it's all over for Israel?



This is a joke topic that I have destroyed time and time again.

Those of us with the education, training and experience know that no Israeli combat aircraft have the combat radius to strike targets in Iran.

If you don't understand the difference between combat radius and range, then you need to learn.

And we know that Israel would need at the bare minimum, at least 14 aircraft per target. Some targets would require 20 aircraft. While planning your operation, the issue of fuel is going to come up. You will have refuel aircraft in-flight and then also refuel aircraft as the come out-bound from Iran.

How many aerial tankers does Israel have? 5 to 8 (depending on the source). Assuming for a moment that Israel really does have 8 tankers, and that all 8 tankers have an operational readiness of 100%, that means Israel could refuel 48 aircraft.

Oooops.

And then what about out-bound? Those aerial tankers will never be able to fly from the Persian Gulf back to Israel, refuel, reload with fuel, then take off and return to the Persian Gulf in time to re-fuel aircraft coming out.

By the way, what are you using for Psub(k)?

I generally bracket 0.41 to 0.55 for PGMs.

You do know what I'm talking about right?

When I was in S-3 Air Ops planning operations with the naval liaison and the FAC, we don't just guess at how many aircraft we need. It's not like Dungeons & Dragons were we roll two 8-sided die and a 10-sided die.

We have very precise mathematical formulas that we use. Even if I'm calling up air cav to strike ground targets, I still have to calculate the number of sorties so I can inform the commander how many air cav platoons he'll need to have ready. PGMs are "Precision-Guided Munitions." Yeah, and even though they're laser-guided or GPS guided, they still have a fail rate and they only hit their target 41% to 55% of the time.

An F-16 can carry 2 2,000 lb bombs and 2 AGM-158s. Suppose I need 4 AGMs and 4 2,000 lb bombs to destroy the target. That means I actually need four F-16s each loaded with 2 AGM-158s and 2 2,000 lb pounds to ensure that target is destroyed. For troops in the open an other crap, I can play fast and loose, but for point targets there isn't a lot of leeway.

Your n and Psub(d), will be difficult here too. 'n' is the number of missile shots from air or ground-based defenses.

You do understand that unlike the Iraqi retards, Iranian air defense are mobile, meaning they shoot-n-scoot. And you are aware that there are at least 52 if not as many as 61 F-14 Tomcats prowling the Iranian skies, right? And all of them have Phoenix missiles (back-engineered by Russians and Chinese) with a range of at least 90 nm, right?

I mention that, because Israel would need about 78 aircraft at the very, very least, and they'll be in Iranian skies with no command and control.

You know I'm talking about EW aircraft, right, like AWACs, Hawkeyes and such? The Israeli pilots would be totally blind. They wouldn't see missiles coming at them unless the missiles are close enough to trigger the radar warning receiver. And then they wouldn't see aircraft coming at them either. The Iranian F-4s and F-5s have a small profile and you're not going to see them until their up in your face firing. That's where an AWACs would be helpful.

And if an F-16 gets locked, you realize the only defense it has is to jettison its ordnance and bug-out. An F-15 could deal with it, but not an F-16, and certainly not with a strike load-out. An F-16 is like a pig on a bowling ball.

Anyway, those are (some of) the reasons Israel has never attacked Iran....and never will.




A new video game.

Thread killing....

Mircea

O.K. Mercea I was ready to concede to your superior views since you know so much about it. Then a few days ago I read that Kerry warned Israel not to bomb Iran. If it so impossible for Israel to bomb Iran and you are so positive that it won't happen then why would Kerry even bother to warn Israel not to do something that they cannot possibly do. I think you are one of those people who post things that sound so believable because of their supposed intelligence but don't really know what your talking about.

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by nickerman

O.K. Mercea I was ready to concede to your superior views since you know so much about it. Then a few days ago I read that Kerry warned Israel not to bomb Iran. If it so impossible for Israel to bomb Iran and you are so positive that it won't happen then why would Kerry even bother to warn Israel not to do something that they cannot possibly do. I think you are one of those people who post things that sound so believable because of their supposed intelligence but don't really know what your talking about.

Kerry may not know any better, frankly. Powell, for instance, so incredibly wrong with his UN WMD speech that I--who had spent the decade of the 90s watching Iraq--was shouting at the television set. Honestly, Kerry almost certainly does not know the operational planning necessary, especially if he has not specifically asked for a DoD briefing of the real operational possibilities...and he almost certainly has not because State doesn't do that.