lets discuss the repercussions if Israel bombs Iran (Iraq, middle east, Israeli)

[nickerman]

It looks like it is more likely now than ever that Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Unless they can get their favorite political puppets here in the U.S. to screw things up. The agreement with Iran isn't a done deal yet. There are people who can get in the way and that is what Israel is hoping for. But if they don't screw the agreement up then Israel will bomb Iran. There is little doubt in my mind because Israel is not going to live with the possibility that down the road Iran gets the bomb with Israel knowing its all over for her. So this is a serious topic that deserves discussion because the repercussions of an Israeli bombing would be great. Of course Iran would declare war on Israel making it official. In my view it would set off a much bigger war than between Israel and Iran. We in the U.S. would be involved in some way because we are so deeply involved in the middle east right now that it couldn't be avoided. Any opinions on what some of the repercussions of Israel bombing Iran would be.

[curbur]

It would create another cold war where US and NATO fight Russia and China through satellite countries.

[Ih2puo]

Obama would be very angry and ask the UN for sanctions. So no more soda streams in America.

[MJJersey]

I doubt it will, not outright anyway. But I could see some type of "accident" at the sites. I think Israel already caused some of their nuclear scientists to have accidents.

[whogo]

Originally Posted by MJJersey

I doubt it will, not outright anyway. But I could see some type of "accident" at the sites. I think Israel already caused some of their nuclear scientists to have accidents.

Ditto.

[greywar]

Iran gets bombed.

Thats about it. Iran doesn't have the gumption to punch through multiple countries to retaliate directly.

Expect some serious weapons supplied to other people who hate Israel though.

Reality check though, Israel doesn't have the force projection capability to his Iran. They are actively trying to resolve this though.

Now....might they have the ability to hit Iran via sub launched missile attacks? Thats possible. They have popeye missiles, which could do damage, but really don't have the penetration power needed to hit most of the important facilities.

[hawkeye2009]

Originally Posted by nickerman

It looks like it is more likely now than ever that Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. Unless they can get their favorite political puppets here in the U.S. to screw things up. The agreement with Iran isn't a done deal yet. There are people who can get in the way and that is what Israel is hoping for. But if they don't screw the agreement up then Israel will bomb Iran. There is little doubt in my mind because Israel is not going to live with the possibility that down the road Iran gets the bomb with Israel knowing its all over for her. So this is a serious topic that deserves discussion because the repercussions of an Israeli bombing would be great. Of course Iran would declare war on Israel making it official. In my view it would set off a much bigger war than between Israel and Iran. We in the U.S. would be involved in some way because we are so deeply involved in the middle east right now that it couldn't be avoided. Any opinions on what some of the repercussions of Israel bombing Iran would be.

Ummmmmm........................................... .......

freedom and personal liberty triumphs over fascism?

[DPolo]

Did you a make up a doomsday scenario?

[katzpaw]

The UN would vote for diplomatic, economic and military actions against Israel. The US would veto most of these. A non-US coalition (Russia, China, Pakistan...) would then bomb the crap out of Israel followed by guerrilla and/or conventional land attacks.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by nickerman

It looks like it is more likely now than ever that Israel will bomb Iranian nuclear facilities.

What I'm hearing is, "I have no military experience and I'm totally clueless about military operations and logistics."

Fear not, I do.

Originally Posted by nickerman

There is little doubt in my mind because Israel is not going to live with the possibility that down the road Iran gets the bomb with Israel knowing its all over for her.

How does getting "the bomb" mean it's all over for Israel?

Originally Posted by nickerman

So this is a serious topic that deserves discussion because the repercussions of an Israeli bombing would be great.

This is a joke topic that I have destroyed time and time again.

Those of us with the education, training and experience know that no Israeli combat aircraft have the combat radius to strike targets in Iran.

If you don't understand the difference between combat radius and range, then you need to learn.

And we know that Israel would need at the bare minimum, at least 14 aircraft per target. Some targets would require 20 aircraft. While planning your operation, the issue of fuel is going to come up. You will have refuel aircraft in-flight and then also refuel aircraft as the come out-bound from Iran.

How many aerial tankers does Israel have? 5 to 8 (depending on the source). Assuming for a moment that Israel really does have 8 tankers, and that all 8 tankers have an operational readiness of 100%, that means Israel could refuel 48 aircraft.

Oooops.

And then what about out-bound? Those aerial tankers will never be able to fly from the Persian Gulf back to Israel, refuel, reload with fuel, then take off and return to the Persian Gulf in time to re-fuel aircraft coming out.

By the way, what are you using for Psub(k)?

I generally bracket 0.41 to 0.55 for PGMs.

You do know what I'm talking about right?

When I was in S-3 Air Ops planning operations with the naval liaison and the FAC, we don't just guess at how many aircraft we need. It's not like Dungeons & Dragons were we roll two 8-sided die and a 10-sided die.

We have very precise mathematical formulas that we use. Even if I'm calling up air cav to strike ground targets, I still have to calculate the number of sorties so I can inform the commander how many air cav platoons he'll need to have ready. PGMs are "Precision-Guided Munitions." Yeah, and even though they're laser-guided or GPS guided, they still have a fail rate and they only hit their target 41% to 55% of the time.

An F-16 can carry 2 2,000 lb bombs and 2 AGM-158s. Suppose I need 4 AGMs and 4 2,000 lb bombs to destroy the target. That means I actually need four F-16s each loaded with 2 AGM-158s and 2 2,000 lb pounds to ensure that target is destroyed. For troops in the open an other crap, I can play fast and loose, but for point targets there isn't a lot of leeway.

Your n and Psub(d), will be difficult here too. 'n' is the number of missile shots from air or ground-based defenses.

You do understand that unlike the Iraqi retards, Iranian air defense are mobile, meaning they shoot-n-scoot. And you are aware that there are at least 52 if not as many as 61 F-14 Tomcats prowling the Iranian skies, right? And all of them have Phoenix missiles (back-engineered by Russians and Chinese) with a range of at least 90 nm, right?

I mention that, because Israel would need about 78 aircraft at the very, very least, and they'll be in Iranian skies with no command and control.

You know I'm talking about EW aircraft, right, like AWACs, Hawkeyes and such? The Israeli pilots would be totally blind. They wouldn't see missiles coming at them unless the missiles are close enough to trigger the radar warning receiver. And then they wouldn't see aircraft coming at them either. The Iranian F-4s and F-5s have a small profile and you're not going to see them until their up in your face firing. That's where an AWACs would be helpful.

And if an F-16 gets locked, you realize the only defense it has is to jettison its ordnance and bug-out. An F-15 could deal with it, but not an F-16, and certainly not with a strike load-out. An F-16 is like a pig on a bowling ball.

Anyway, those are (some of) the reasons Israel has never attacked Iran....and never will.

Originally Posted by nickerman

Any opinions on what some of the repercussions of Israel bombing Iran would be.

A new video game.

Thread killing....

Mircea