Where Both Parties Get Their 2016 Predictions Wrong (John Kerry, Congress, lawyer)

[Dequindre]

I've noticed that both major political parties are misreading the 2016 election in a number of ways. However, I must say, the election so far has not gone as anyone has predicated. Still, these are the areas where I think partisanship is clouding subjective analysis:

Republicans:

1. Republicans need to stop thinking that these mid-term elections are indicative of what will happen on Presidential election years. In 2010, we saw a historic Republican sweep in the mid-term elections. In 2012, Barack Obama was reelected by a healthy margin. The mid-term momentum did not translate to Presidential year momentum. Republicans would be foolish to think of 2014 as an excuse for getting complacent on the 2016 campaign trail.

2. Some Republicans, although the number is dwindling, see Trump as an electable candidate. Let me burst your bubble: he isn't. He is the one person in this race who is more disliked than Hillary, and that is already a pretty high bar. Democrats could easily frame Trump as nothing but a joke and a racist.

Democrats:

1. Democrats need to stop blaming their every loss on low-voter turnout. I saw that excuse used a lot today after the 2015 elections, but it really stems all the way back to 2004 with John Kerry. Democrats blamed a lack of voter turnout for his loss too. With the number of governorships, state legislatures, and U.S. Congressional seats flipping red, Democrats need to realize that there is a larger discontent with either their policies or their candidates.

2. Democrats, other than Sanders fans, also underestimate how universally loathed Hillary Clinton is. Because she has been running such a progressive campaign, and unveiling many policies that are certainly not centrist, it is hard for her to compare herself to her popular centrist husband. The phrase "No more Bushes, no more Clintons" describes how many "middle" Americans feel. Independents give Hillary very low marks and tend to favor the Republican candidate in hypothetical match-ups. Of all votes, Independent votes are the most cherished, so Clinton is at a big disadvantage.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Does anyone have any others to add? Instead of just slamming the opposition party, please try and think of some for the party you more closely align with. I'm looking for non-partisan analysis.

[Dequindre]

Can someone please move this to the elections category? I misplaced it.

[dsjj251]

Originally Posted by Dequindre

I've noticed that both major political parties are misreading the 2016 election in a number of ways. However, I must say, the election so far has not gone as anyone has predicated. Still, these are the areas where I think partisanship is clouding subjective analysis:

Republicans:

1. Republicans need to stop thinking that these mid-term elections are indicative of what will happen on Presidential election years. In 2010, we saw a historic Republican sweep in the mid-term elections. In 2012, Barack Obama was reelected by a healthy margin. The mid-term momentum did not translate to Presidential year momentum. Republicans would be foolish to think of 2014 as an excuse for getting complacent on the 2016 campaign trail.

2. Some Republicans, although the number is dwindling, see Trump as an electable candidate. Let me burst your bubble: he isn't. He is the one person in this race who is more disliked than Hillary, and that is already a pretty high bar. Democrats could easily frame Trump as nothing but a joke and a racist.

]Democrats:

1. Democrats need to stop blaming their every loss on low-voter turnout. I saw that excuse used a lot today after the 2015 elections, but it really stems all the way back to 2004 with John Kerry. Democrats blamed a lack of voter turnout for his loss too. With the number of governorships, state legislatures, and U.S. Congressional seats flipping red, Democrats need to realize that there is a larger discontent with either their policies or their candidates.

2. Democrats, other than Sanders fans, also underestimate how universally loathed Hillary Clinton is. Because she has been running such a progressive campaign, and unveiling many policies that are certainly not centrist, it is hard for her to compare herself to her popular centrist husband. The phrase "No more Bushes, no more Clintons" describes how many "middle" Americans feel. Independents give Hillary very low marks and tend to favor the Republican candidate in hypothetical match-ups. Of all votes, Independent votes are the most cherished, so Clinton is at a big disadvantage.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Does anyone have any others to add? Instead of just slamming the opposition party, please try and think of some for the party you more closely align with. I'm looking for non-partisan analysis.

The answer is that republicans articulate their message better with the low turnout mid term crowd, and yes, it is low turn out as a demonstrated with you earlier by comparing actual turnout numbers, which im guessing you pretended you didnt see.

[OwlAndSparrow]

I love Hillary, and I think she's by far the most qualified candidate in the pack, but she's terrible at campaigning. She needs to start over and rebrand herself. She needs to come up with something that's catchy, and she needs a hook that will actually get people interested in what she's going to do.

Obama was great at that. We can all still remember his slogans and ideas. Hillary ran a bit of a copycat campaign, and it never felt as authentic as Obama's.

Even if the real reason for voting for Hillary is that she has a ton of good experience as a legistlator and a cabinet member and a lawyer, and, yeah, she has the political connections she needs to run an effective administration, she probably needs to use a wedge issue the same way ever other candidate does.