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I think Trump will do extremely well with minority voters, particularly African Americans. African Americans in states like CA and TX have been absolutely decimated by NAFTA with the loss of high paying manufacturing jobs
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Can't speak for CA, but despite our bone-headed tea party governor trying to gum up the works, Texas continues to reap economic benefits from NAFTA:
Mexico is Texas’ largest export market—buying over $100 billion a year from Texas companies. Combined, the two sides trade over $200 billion, double the trade between Mexico and the United Kingdom. The U.S. Commerce department estimates this trade supports over 300,000 Texan jobs.
Nearly 70 percent of NAFTA truck traffic from Mexico passes first through Texas. So does nearly 90 percent of rail traffic. Laredo is the largest inland port in the nation. No state has benefited more handsomely from NAFTA than Texas, which, in turn, exports $300 billion in goods per year, with one-third going to the largest trading partner: Mexico.
are you out in Colorado smoking some Rocky Mountain high?
NY and PA going republican.
you are making assumptions again. sorry i dont live in colorado, and wouldnt touch the stuff if i did. as for a republican winning new york and PA, it has happened before, and possibly will happen again. i think trump can pull that off. but again the election is not for another year, and anything can happen in that time.
"Gerrymandering has been referred to the practice of "packing and cracking"; "packing" as many of your opponents supporters in to as few districts as possible while "cracking" or spreading your own supporters over more districts to control a legislative body. Since Democrats tend to settle in dense urban areas while a Republicans tend to be rural based, the base of the parties own living choices effectively gerrymander before a politician does anything."
You're preaching to the choir, hombre. My point is that in Pennsylvania, in particular, it's much easier to pack Democratic districts than it is to crack them. Here's an example of a relatively pedestrian 11-7 D-R map someone created using Dave's Redistricting:
None of that applies to the election of a President. If it did, Romney would have won 2012. The 2010 was the strongest reaction to Barack Obama of all that followed, and 2014 was a reaction against his second win.
Exactly the same occurred in reverse with GW Bush in the 2004 election. The 2000 tossup was abnormally close and a true aberration in modern American political history.
The numbers remain solidly in the Democrat's favor. I tend to think Trump is the only candidate who could change that, but he's a bet on a very wild card for either party.
Bingo; off year races have no carryover affect to POTUS races, since the former is a far more homogenous and smaller sample, vs the big tent, big turnout only POTUS brings.
Yes, but why? How is it that the GOP maintains consistent legislative control of a state no Republican has carried in a presidential election since 1988? Is there rampant split-ticket voting? And if Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state, why are there fewer Democratic-leaning legislative districts? Isn't that something the Pennsylvania Democratic Party should look to address — like maybe 20 or 30 years ago?
What I'm getting at — and forgive me if my previous post was a bit convoluted — is that Pennsylvania has a natural Republican gerrymander owing to the geographical concentration of its Democratic voters. Suppose the Democratic Party gains full control of Pennsylvania's redistricting process (as I understand it, this is what the judicial victories last week portend) and has carte blanche to draw the districts however it pleases. In order to fashion itself a legislative majority, its crucial aim must be to blend Democratic precincts with those populated by swing voters and Republicans. With a finite number of voters, it must resist needlessly concentrating its supporters in districts that are already heavily Democratic. The problem for Pennsylvania Democrats is that in many cases, the swing voters/Republicans are nowhere near the Democratic precincts. With respect to Philadelphia, for example, how would one avoid creating a bunch of 70, 80 and 90 percent Democratic districts? As a widely circulated conspiratorial chain email noted following the 2012 election, there were some precincts in Philadelphia in which Mitt Romney's vote total was at or around zero. Balancing those areas out would entail creating extremely sprawling districts (not many swing areas in Delaware County, either), which, given the city's population density, would likely have to look something like snakes or noodles.
Point being, the geography imposes significant political constraints.
snakes and noodles look better than the districts you already have in that state.
No. He won a 2nd 6 year term in 2014. IMO won so close a race in 2008 (< 1000 vote margin), that w/o Palin decimating GOP, Coleman was the Senator then, and now.
Voter fraud was the difference in Minnesota, not Sarah Palin.
There is a Blue Wall if you use it as a historic term for the bloc of states that have voted Democratic since 1992. You can't accurately predict the future from past events because at some point those states will split apart. We just can't predict when. We can say though, based on past events that there is a higher rate of probability that in the event of a Republican win, the Blue Wall states are unlikely to be the ones that put the GOP over the top with 270 electoral votes. Any splintering of the wall is likely to be padding a victory already won in swing states like Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.
I'm afraid Nate Silver has a lot more credibility than you do.
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