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Old 11-27-2015, 09:54 AM
 
29,547 posts, read 9,713,411 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Agreed-

When one pays taxes, supports children and relatives, maintains a marriage for 25+ years, runs a practice for 25+ years, it clarifies the common sense basis for conservative (not republican) views.

Liberalism is based on vacating common sense for emotion and celebrates an abandonment of personal responsibility. In effect, it is an emotional retreat to childhood.

Life is fun when somene else is paying the tab, but those who pay the bills have to maintain discipline and common sense in order to provide the resources for all of those "free" treats. This is why parents lead families and not children.
Repeat, please see comment #28...

 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:02 AM
 
29,547 posts, read 9,713,411 times
Reputation: 3469
Default Learning...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Orlandochuck1 View Post
Agreed! There is no substitute for the perspective that can only be gained through personal experience that comes with getting older.
Reminds me of the teenager that thinks he is smarter than his parents. When he has children of his own he recognizes how wrong he was.
Seems there is some confusion here about learning as we get older. Of course we like to assume we learn with more experience, as we get older, and I would not argue otherwise despite what confusion and questionable "learning" is evidenced by too many posts in these threads.

Yes, of course, we learn as we get older. We should anyway, but my Cement Theory posits that about the time we leave our twenties and/or begin our thirties, we have pretty well cemented our core beliefs with regard to religion and political ideology. For example, if we are Christian (or Muslim) during and through our twenties, we will maintain that faith for life. If we tend to lean right (or left) during that time, we are likely to continue leaning in that direction for life.

This is not to be confused with the notion that we stop learning, but no doubt confirmation bias becomes more profound as we continue that learning as we get older, keeping us from learning as we truly should, toward what is absolute truth regardless of our pre-established - cemented - beliefs.

Also, of course, "there are exceptions to every rule," but for the most part the truth of this observation that gives rise to my Cement Theory has remained sound based on years of such observation.

Additionally, we don't all apply what we learn from our experiences equally or in the same way...

"We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again - and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore." - Mark Twain
 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:08 AM
 
9,848 posts, read 8,280,777 times
Reputation: 3296
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Having been in many forums like this one and many discussions with people in general, ever since high school, I have come to develop a theory that people "cement" their opinions and beliefs about politics, religion and such while they are in their 20s. After that, no matter the facts or truth, people for the most part do not change their minds about those fundamental beliefs. A result of what I call my "Cement Theory"
Not true at all. Most people are more liberal at twenty and get more conservative as they get older and exposed to the real world and taxes, unless they remain connected to government through welfare or government welfare make work jobs.

Where you can use your cement theory is in regard to people's egos. As example anyone who voted for Obama are mostly embarrassed and don't like to be responsible for his endless failures. Yet, they can not admit their mistakes in public because of ego and embarrassment.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:21 AM
 
34,278 posts, read 19,365,659 times
Reputation: 17261
So lets look at numbers.

Party Identification Varies Widely Across the Age Spectrum

It seems to occur from 34-44, when Republicans gain 8% of the vote. Not a huge amount, but enough to make a difference. Right? Except look further down. The partisan gap by age. Its not linear.

Then look further down, the party identification by age. That seems to indicate that its not people switching parties so much, its independents going to the republican party. Then they lose some....then gain them in the late 60's.

So its not horribly clear really-because it could be that todays 60 y olds voted republican from the start..... Lets find some more data....

Turns out...if you want to find out how people will vote, look at...Who was president when they were 18. In fact lots of data here, including how generations view immigrants, whether a generation trusts government more or less (we're all trusting it less no matter the generation), and more:

Section 1: How Generations Have Changed | Pew Research Center

So I dont think its one group going Republican as they age, but rather...who was president when they were younger.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:25 AM
 
29,547 posts, read 9,713,411 times
Reputation: 3469
Default What I have not learned so well despite experience...

Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post
Not true at all. Most people are more liberal at twenty and get more conservative as they get older and exposed to the real world and taxes, unless they remain connected to government through welfare or government welfare make work jobs.

Where you can use your cement theory is in regard to people's egos. As example anyone who voted for Obama are mostly embarrassed and don't like to be responsible for his endless failures. Yet, they can not admit their mistakes in public because of ego and embarrassment.
Note just about every statement above submitted with bravado but no facts, statistics, substantiation of any kind. Also note this is yet again another comment that invokes taxes as some sort of special learning experience. I must admit I do get a good chuckle from these threads...

Taxes, government, welfare..., I'll bet you were a true liberal when young, but now a much older wiser conservative. True? Just asking...

Where we might begin a hint of agreement is with regard to ego. There is no question that what cements our beliefs about religion and politics -- opinion in general -- is the influence of ego that places more importance on the appearance of knowing rather than learning. We get personally "invested" in what decisions we make, with our spouses, our kids, our votes, and we are loath to admit we might have got it wrong. We battle this loathing with what on the other hand we truly believe is right.

I, for example, feel no regret or embarrassment for voting for Obama - twice. The only regret I feel is that Obama will be forced from office as a result of the term-limits law for POTUS.

I have also learned long ago that those who might respond to such a statement with all manner of right-wing insults is inevitable, to be expected and pretty much never with any detectable reason or logic of any sort, just rhetoric, ego and mind not capable of critical thinking.

Despite knowing this so well, my long experience in this regard has not taught me what I should know far better by now. There really is no point or productive end to this exchange. Not once we get past our twenties anyway...
 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:34 AM
 
34,278 posts, read 19,365,659 times
Reputation: 17261
In addition to the above links...538 (Nate Silver) agrees with me:

Partisan Loyalty Begins at Age 18 | FiveThirtyEight

Some very good data there, presented in a much more clear format then my prior links.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 10:52 AM
 
9,848 posts, read 8,280,777 times
Reputation: 3296
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Note just about every statement above submitted with bravado but no facts, statistics, substantiation of any kind. Also note this is yet again another comment that invokes taxes as some sort of special learning experience. I must admit I do get a good chuckle from these threads...

Taxes, government, welfare..., I'll bet you were a true liberal when young, but now a much older wiser conservative. True? Just asking...

Where we might begin a hint of agreement is with regard to ego. There is no question that what cements our beliefs about religion and politics -- opinion in general -- is the influence of ego that places more importance on the appearance of knowing rather than learning. We get personally "invested" in what decisions we make, with our spouses, our kids, our votes, and we are loath to admit we might have got it wrong. We battle this loathing with what on the other hand we truly believe is right.

I, for example, feel no regret or embarrassment for voting for Obama - twice. The only regret I feel is that Obama will be forced from office as a result of the term-limits law for POTUS.

I have also learned long ago that those who might respond to such a statement with all manner of right-wing insults is inevitable, to be expected and pretty much never with any detectable reason or logic of any sort, just rhetoric, ego and mind not capable of critical thinking.

Despite knowing this so well, my long experience in this regard has not taught me what I should know far better by now. There really is no point or productive end to this exchange. Not once we get past our twenties anyway...
If you are young and not liberal you have no heart, if you become 30 and are not conservative you have no head. There is maturity with age for some people.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 12:11 PM
 
34,278 posts, read 19,365,659 times
Reputation: 17261
Quote:
Originally Posted by RCCCB View Post
If you are young and not liberal you have no heart, if you become 30 and are not conservative you have no head. There is maturity with age for some people.
The factual data that I provided seems to indicate its more about who is president when you are 18.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Sun City West, Arizona
50,798 posts, read 24,310,427 times
Reputation: 32936
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Having been in many forums like this one and many discussions with people in general, ever since high school, I have come to develop a theory that people "cement" their opinions and beliefs about politics, religion and such while they are in their 20s. After that, no matter the facts or truth, people for the most part do not change their minds about those fundamental beliefs. A result of what I call my "Cement Theory" that so far has proven quite sound all considered for a long time now, again by way of these threads. Which begs the question, why do we debate? Who has changed their mind? Why bother? Is time spent pounding sand not time better spent?
I'm not sure I agree. When I was 20 I was a Republican (albeit a very moderate one); now I'm a Democrat. I used to have a very moderate attitude toward Muslims (in general); right now I don't at all. I've gone back and forth on the death penalty. I've moderated my views on gun control.

I think people go on a forum for various reasons. Sometimes I want to learn something and/or measure my beliefs against other points of view (for example, a Buddhist forum greatly changed my viewpoint about karma). Sometimes I want to be entertained (and reading the posts of some of our conservative posters is funnier than any situation comedy on television). Sometimes I want to gauge what sentiments are out there among the public. And, oh yes, sometimes I want to speak out on an issue.

Or maybe your cement theory is somewhat valid...although think how easily cement can become cracked, shipped, or broken.
 
Old 11-27-2015, 01:10 PM
 
3,216 posts, read 2,084,373 times
Reputation: 1863
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Seems there is some confusion here about learning as we get older. Of course we like to assume we learn with more experience, as we get older, and I would not argue otherwise despite what confusion and questionable "learning" is evidenced by too many posts in these threads.

Yes, of course, we learn as we get older. We should anyway, but my Cement Theory posits that about the time we leave our twenties and/or begin our thirties, we have pretty well cemented our core beliefs with regard to religion and political ideology. For example, if we are Christian (or Muslim) during and through our twenties, we will maintain that faith for life. If we tend to lean right (or left) during that time, we are likely to continue leaning in that direction for life.

This is not to be confused with the notion that we stop learning, but no doubt confirmation bias becomes more profound as we continue that learning as we get older, keeping us from learning as we truly should, toward what is absolute truth regardless of our pre-established - cemented - beliefs.

Also, of course, "there are exceptions to every rule," but for the most part the truth of this observation that gives rise to my Cement Theory has remained sound based on years of such observation.

Additionally, we don't all apply what we learn from our experiences equally or in the same way...

"We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove-lid again - and that is well; but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore." - Mark Twain
It amazing that I have reconnected with literally almost 100 high school friends on Facebook. Thirty years ago we were mostly all liberals. Now it seems that most all express conservative political views.

Young liberal folks today say they are waiting for the old conservatives to die off so that liberalism can prevail. I get a smirk on my face when I read comments like that because I know that many of them well eventually become conservatives.
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