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Old 12-01-2015, 09:51 AM
 
Location: River North, Chicago, Illinois
4,619 posts, read 8,167,198 times
Reputation: 6321

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kamms View Post
C'mon. What's next on the excuse list? Legalized abortions were considered to have reduced crime now lead paint, prohibited in 1978, is a cause of violent crime. What was the reason for the violent crime explosion in the 1960s?
Given that lead causes problem due to childhood absorption, if it is a cause, its impact would be offset by about 20 years or so. The abortion solving crime argument was retracted by the original author of the idea long ago, but retractions rarely get as much press as original claims. A case can be made for leaded gasoline being the stronger contributor of lead into the environment, moreso than leaded paint, and indeed in the link below you can see environmental lead released because of leaded gasoline compared to crime in the 1960s, with a 23-year offset. It's nearly a perfect match:
Forbes Welcome

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBideon View Post
The reason New York and LA's crime numbers have fallen whereas Chicago has gone up is they're extremely expensive, desirable, cosmopolitan international cities with unique industry near-monopolies (Wall Street and Hollywood).
...
You start from a false premise, which pretty much nullifies anything else you have to say. Crime has fallen in Chicago, just not as fast as some other cities.

 
Old 12-01-2015, 09:53 AM
 
Location: Upper West Side, Manhattan, NYC
15,323 posts, read 23,909,459 times
Reputation: 7419
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeotheOrangeCat View Post
yeah but the homicide rate has been about the same since 2004; there was a big reduction before that but no progress since
It's lower than 2004, not much but it is. However, the important thing is that trends go in waves. There was an incline of homicides from 2004 to 2006 for example, then it decreased in 2007, then it jumped up sharply in 2008 to just below 2003 levels, then it went down until 2012 where it jumped up yet again to 2008 levels then it has decreased since then. This is common in trends - in the long term things are down but small spikes here and there are not uncommon at all. It's not going down as sharply, but it's still on the down trend right now. I'll bet that next year or the year after will see homicide levels similar to 2013 or 2014 or even a little lower. Probably not drastic, but still downward. If it goes up instead for the next few years then we should start worrying more about the trend reversing.

Last edited by marothisu; 12-01-2015 at 10:05 AM..
 
Old 12-01-2015, 09:59 AM
 
Location: St. Louis
2,693 posts, read 3,187,296 times
Reputation: 2758
In other news, Police Superintendent McCarthy has been ousted.
 
Old 12-02-2015, 07:04 PM
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,814 posts, read 4,007,910 times
Reputation: 3284
LA/NYC had Bratton, arguably the best police chief in the United States. While LA did not tolerate Bratton's stop and frisk BS, they did approve of his statistics-driven policing. But the blacks leaving LA for other areas also had a huge impact on the crime dropping in LA.

Bratton has noted that he will not come to Chicago due to "da machine" politics, as well as CPD's rank and file resisting anyone who is perceived to be an "outsider". I doubt Chicago crime will get as low as LA/NYC in our lifetimes.
 
Old 12-02-2015, 07:33 PM
 
Location: St. Louis
2,693 posts, read 3,187,296 times
Reputation: 2758
Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
LA/NYC had Bratton, arguably the best police chief in the United States. While LA did not tolerate Bratton's stop and frisk BS, they did approve of his statistics-driven policing. But the blacks leaving LA for other areas also had a huge impact on the crime dropping in LA.

Bratton has noted that he will not come to Chicago due to "da machine" politics, as well as CPD's rank and file resisting anyone who is perceived to be an "outsider". I doubt Chicago crime will get as low as LA/NYC in our lifetimes.
Chicago actually employed stop and frisk at a higher level than NYC. That policy alone isn't bringing crime down dramatically.

As for outsiders, McCarthy was from New York, and he lasted awhile as superintendent. Rahm needed someone to fall on their sword, however.
 
Old 12-02-2015, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,455,878 times
Reputation: 3994
Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
LA/NYC had Bratton, arguably the best police chief in the United States. While LA did not tolerate Bratton's stop and frisk BS, they did approve of his statistics-driven policing. But the blacks leaving LA for other areas also had a huge impact on the crime dropping in LA.

Bratton has noted that he will not come to Chicago due to "da machine" politics, as well as CPD's rank and file resisting anyone who is perceived to be an "outsider". I doubt Chicago crime will get as low as LA/NYC in our lifetimes.
Maybe Rahm can offer it to Karen Lewis. The union guys and gals in blue would love her, and he needs her off his back at least until the next election.
 
Old 12-02-2015, 08:15 PM
 
2,625 posts, read 3,412,268 times
Reputation: 3200
Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
LA/NYC had Bratton, arguably the best police chief in the United States. While LA did not tolerate Bratton's stop and frisk BS, they did approve of his statistics-driven policing. But the blacks leaving LA for other areas also had a huge impact on the crime dropping in LA.

Bratton has noted that he will not come to Chicago due to "da machine" politics, as well as CPD's rank and file resisting anyone who is perceived to be an "outsider". I doubt Chicago crime will get as low as LA/NYC in our lifetimes.
  1. As to "machine politics": So New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, DC, and a host of other major and less-than-major cities don't have a whole system of "machine politics" historically in place like Chicago has been known for? Or is it the case that Chicago is characterized by "machine politics" to a degree much, much beyond whatever any of these cities or other not-mentioned cities have? So Bill Bratton didn't have a "political machine" system to contend with in New York City? Or is it the case that any "political machine" that has historically prevailed in New York City (along with the New York State political leadership) is nowhere near the scale of Chicago's (and Illinois') "political machine"?
  2. It is interesting that Chicago has been a city long under the gripe of the Democratic Party (traditionally known from at least the 1960s-onwards, if not earlier as well, as the party of the liberal and left-of-center end of the political spectrum) and yet, despite this, is firmly in the grips of a pervasive "political machine" system. And it has a long-standingly strong non-nonsense police force. How does that reality jibe with the liberal and left-of-center egalitarian/human rights/civil rights/civil liberties mindset of the Democratic Party? It seems more like something that a Republican-led city would entail (after all, the Republicans are traditionally the party of the monied interests and protectors and advancers of wealth and privilege . . . as well as a party which, for the most part, seems to be very white/Caucasian-dominated and driven). These aspects strike me as rather strange and incongruous.
  3. It is probaly not a mere concidence that the significant violent crime reduction levels of NYC and LA both occurred while Bill Bratton was Police Commissioner of these respective cities. Or would any claim that his presence and policies had overblown implications on violent crime reduction?

Last edited by UsAll; 12-02-2015 at 08:33 PM..
 
Old 12-03-2015, 06:01 AM
 
10,275 posts, read 10,330,601 times
Reputation: 10644
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRU67 View Post
Maybe Rahm can offer it to Karen Lewis. The union guys and gals in blue would love her, and he needs her off his back at least until the next election.
Rahm will be lucky if he isn't kicked out of office and jailed for obstruction of justice, given that he blocked the video release and paid the victim's family $5 million right before the election in exchange for shutting them up.

He knew that release of the video would mean the end of his reelection chances.
 
Old 12-03-2015, 06:03 AM
 
10,275 posts, read 10,330,601 times
Reputation: 10644
Quote:
Originally Posted by UsAll View Post
[*]It is probaly not a mere concidence that the significant violent crime reduction levels of NYC and LA both occurred while Bill Bratton was Police Commissioner of these respective cities. Or would any claim that his presence and policies had overblown implications on violent crime reduction?[/list]
Bratton was very successful in both cities, but keep in mind that the crime decreases continued when Bratton left both cities. Bratton's successors were, if anything, even more successful.
 
Old 12-03-2015, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Chicago, Tri-Taylor
5,014 posts, read 9,455,878 times
Reputation: 3994
Quote:
Originally Posted by NOLA101 View Post
Rahm will be lucky if he isn't kicked out of office and jailed for obstruction of justice, given that he blocked the video release and paid the victim's family $5 million right before the election in exchange for shutting them up.

He knew that release of the video would mean the end of his reelection chances.
Agree totally. This will be interesting to watch. The biggest questions will be what he knew and when he knew it. The City definitely wanted to keep quiet about it, that's much is for sure.
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