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Old 01-07-2016, 12:17 PM
 
Location: New Hampshire
639 posts, read 575,588 times
Reputation: 1046

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Quote:
Originally Posted by 22backagain View Post
Weather goes in cycles I believe. That's why I'm not entirely convinced about global warming. It needs more research.
Nothing in human history has been researched more.
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:20 PM
 
77,903 posts, read 60,063,004 times
Reputation: 49252
Quote:
Originally Posted by carterstamp View Post
You're completely overlooking the Pacific Ocean.
Sure, but if the Pacific were calm and the continental US had a bad Hurricane year wouldn't Al Gore and others be all over how it was due to "global warming"?

That's the irony, it's not the AGW deniers that started this meme....quite the opposite.
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC.
33,502 posts, read 37,019,121 times
Reputation: 13973
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Sure, but if the Pacific were calm and the continental US had a bad Hurricane year wouldn't Al Gore and others be all over how it was due to "global warming"?

That's the irony, it's not the AGW deniers that started this meme....quite the opposite.
True, the deniers think if it doesn't affect the US, it doesn't exist.
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:31 PM
 
77,903 posts, read 60,063,004 times
Reputation: 49252
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
Sandy was not a 100 year hurricane and Hurricane Irene hit the east coast in 2011, 2 hurricanes in 2 years. Joaquin was 2 MPH shy of a Cat 5 and just missed us last year if that hit maybe some more believers but we lucked out.

The Long Island Express was a Cat 3 back in 1938, I would say that's the 100 year storm since it was moving at 70MPH with a 20 ft storm surge. Also Camille.

The Great New England Hurricane of 1938
Good post.

There were also a pair of very bad hurricanes in the early 1800's up that way as well and one somewhere around 1450 that was so bad that the native Americans told stories about it to the settlers AND there were major inland sand deposits suggesting essentially a CAT5 with maybe a 25foot surge.

People that think Sandy was bad or a 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 year storm as some irresponsibly claim.....are in for a shock if another cat 3-5 rolls up that way.

Ditto for Miami.

It's not if, it's when.

At least there aren't levees there so we won't have to hear imaginary tales of racist GOP levee destroying from morons that didn't bother to read the National Geographic article that came out BEFORE Katrina hammered NO saying pretty much exactly what would occur and how the levees wouldn't stand up to a big hurricane.

Last edited by Mathguy; 01-07-2016 at 12:40 PM..
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:35 PM
 
22,768 posts, read 30,640,276 times
Reputation: 14737
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Good post.

There were also a pair of very bad hurricanes in the early 1800's up that way as well and one somewhere around 1450 that was so bad that the native Americans told stories about it to the settlers AND there were major inland sand deposits suggesting essentially a CAT5 with maybe a 25foot surge.

People that think Sandy was bad or a 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 year storm as some irresponsibly claim.....are in for a shock if another cat 3-5 rolls up that way.
I hate to imagine what even a medium-sized Category 2 would do to the NYC area.
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:35 PM
 
Location: Long Island
56,963 posts, read 25,901,119 times
Reputation: 15468
Quote:
Originally Posted by OICU812 View Post
Did I say Sandy was a hurricane?

It came ashore as a tropical storm. It was once in a hundred years storm because of all the contributing factors that caused Sandy to slow down over land, still be feed energy, and all the damage it wreaked.


Hurricane Sandy Reduced to a Tropical Storm

“We could have continued to call it a hurricane for one or two days,” said James Franklin, the chief of hurricane forecasts for the center. But that would have been a lie, he said, and “would have utterly destroyed the credibility of the agency in the long run.

So by Saturday, Oct. 27, two days before the storm made landfall, the center downgraded its forecast to a post-tropical cyclone. The agency decided that it was best to leave the warnings to local officials, while working with them to keep public attention focused on the approaching storm.
Yes when it was a tropical storm when it came ashore but it was a hurricane at sea but call it what you want, storm, hurricane or weather event.
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Old 01-07-2016, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Long Island
56,963 posts, read 25,901,119 times
Reputation: 15468
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Good post.

There were also a pair of very bad hurricanes in the early 1800's up that way as well and one somewhere around 1450 that was so bad that the native Americans told stories about it to the settlers AND there were major inland sand deposits suggesting essentially a CAT5 with maybe a 25foot surge.

People that think Sandy was bad or a 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 year storm as some irresponsibly claim.....are in for a shock if another cat 3-5 rolls up that way.

Yes the population has changed, if that 1938 hurricane hit today with the increased development and population on the shoreline...

Also I understand when they indicate 100 year that just means 1% chance of a major hurricane, obviously we have had several major hurricanes within 100 years so it has inacurracies.

I wonder what the odds are for the twin cyclones last year, 1000 year?
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