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That's a bold statement given the volatility in oil prices over the last 20 years. my guess is that it will take a few years to shut down the high cost producers and then the price rises again...or you could have a major calamity or war that changes the price at any time. But I do agree that with Saudi pumping and now adding Iran and the US fracking, we are way oversupplied and it's going to take a while to make that come around.
As for another prediction of mine.....when we had the pipeline discussion I took the position that it was not needed. I wasn't against it to be against it but rather, there was already so much oil that we should leave some of it for now as we do not need it.
If we had built it a few years ago when oil was artificially high would it now be sitting idle?
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About the stock market, we only have maybe 25% of our wealth in the market so the swings of the market don't affect our overall picture to a great degree. I have gone on a limb to buy some commodity based companies whose share cost was 10% of its high...hope they can survive till better days are here.
If you have the funds to place some low cost bets with a high upside it does at least make the game interesting. Sort of like playing fantasy football.
Eh, I disagree with blaming this president. People like Paul Krugman and even Ben Bernanke have been saying for years that monetary stimulus was not enough and we needed fiscal stimulus. Instead, the Republican congress insisted on austerity. ZIRP and QE built a new bubble, but they were the only option as no fiscal stimulus was made available.
LOL, what do you think Bush's tax cuts were? Remember the checks everyone got? Bernanke was the guy preaching that housing was stable and secure right up until the day it crashed.
Granted, this is nothing more than one persons opinion but it is based on some solid fundamentals.
Hard to believe, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA, +1.15% could fall by another 1,000 to 5,000 points and still not be “cheap” compared with long-term stock-valuation measures.
That’s the stark conclusion from an analysis comparing current stock prices to underlying measures such as per-share revenue, earnings and corporate net worth.
It cracks me up when someone says in 2013 "the market is going to take a hit", and when there is a correction in 2016, the same guy comes back and says "see, I told you". Yes, eventually markets go down, and then they go up again.
Indeed and I hate generalizing but I'm going to here. Those who would do that don't really care about the problem as they would be defending their guy here.
That said, politicians are to blame. They could put a stop to these bubbles if they wanted to.
Dodd/Frank mostly did what the Republicans would have done but as you note, the (D)'s were for it and the (R)'s were against it not because of principled or fundamental reasons but because who was president.
Bubbles are not likely to stop in a market economy. Cycles of over- and under-valuation happen. The Fed certainly pays attention to asset values, but policymakers are focused more on actual economic growth (i.e., GDP) and employment, rather than asset values.
It's hard to say what Dodd-Frank will do until tested by a major bubble popping. We should all hope that the stress testing is good enough to improve stability in the financial system, but we can't know for sure until subject to real world testing.
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Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
It's the topic of the thread
It cracks me up when someone says in 2013 "the market is going to take a hit", and when there is a correction in 2016, the same guy comes back and says "see, I told you". Yes, eventually markets go down, and then they go up again.
They sure do. What we are seeing early this year has the general appearance of a correction, though it is reasonable to worry that slowing Chinese growth is a longer-term trend, which impacts both global production and wage growth.
"In fact, Buiter says that because of political dysfunction in the U.S., America is the least-prepared economy for the major economic changes coming in the years ahead.
Via e-mail, he spelled out his concerns: "Dealing with the growing inequality and possible growing job losses caused by the Fourth Industrial Revolution will require a much larger redistributive role for the state. A guaranteed minimum income and universal state-funded health care, funded out of taxes would not raise many eyebrows in Europe. It would meet huge resistance in the U.S., where there only is a decent social safety net for the old."
In other words, economic changes that will be brought on by technology necessitate major redistributional efforts. And due to U.S. political resistance, that is unlikely to happen."
Been saying this all along. We are going to need to become more like Europe as this is inevitable...
Indeed and I hate generalizing but I'm going to here. Those who would do that don't really care about the problem as they would be defending their guy here.
That said, politicians are to blame. They could put a stop to these bubbles if they wanted to.
Dodd/Frank mostly did what the Republicans would have done but as you note, the (D)'s were for it and the (R)'s were against it not because of principled or fundamental reasons but because who was president.
my issue with the dodd/frank bill is it completely left out fannie/freddie which were shoulder deap in the housing crisis
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