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Dear. They weren't predicting popular vote. That didn't come along until her blue wall crumbled. They WERE predicting 300-400 electoral votes for her. Quite crazed they were.
Yes they were.
When a national poll aggregator such as RCP or 538 says a candidate has an average lead of 2.1% for example, they’re predicting a national popular vote edge of 2.1% for that candidate. To say otherwise is pretty silly, even by your standards. They’re based upon the national popular vote average. State predictions are based on combination of state polls and historical data. There are fewer state polls and they are thus more prone to error.
Historically, better than 90% of the time the winner of the national popular vote has prevailed in the electoral college. The only exceptions have been 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016. It’s happened so infrequently thus far that when it happens it’s considered a “misfire”.
Whether the national popular vote will continue to be such an accurate predictor of the winner of the electoral college is doubtful though, simply because of the total and utter collapse of the Republican Party in California. The reason for the popular vote being usually a reliable indicator has been that in the past no one state has dominated the national popular vote without being counterbalanced by another large state.
Back in 2000, Al Gore carried California by 1.2M votes, but that was counterbalanced by George W. Bush carrying Texas by 1.3M. Gore carried the national popular vote by 547T votes. If you subtract California and Texas, Gore carried the remaining 48 states by 475T votes.
In 2016, Hillary carried California by 4.2M votes. Trump carried Texas by 807T. Hillary carried the national popular vote by 2.9M. If you subtract the votes of California and Texas, Donald Trump carried the remaining 48 states by 594T votes.
In years when the D wins California by 30% and the R is winning Texas by less than 10%, as was the case in 2016, it’s going to make it virtually impossible for the R to win the national popular vote and makes “misfires” likely to become far more common than in the past.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 04-09-2019 at 01:32 PM..
they were not predicting popular vote and you know it! They were following CNNs narrative that Trump had "no path to 370".. stop the lying, you look silly.
Since I posted a credible link from Gallup and you posted nothing to back up your opinion, your comment explains who looks silly.
How so?. I said he'd beat Hillary. He beat Hillary.
(hint: CNN isn't true)
You said the following:
Quote:
Dear. They weren't predicting popular vote. That didn't come along until her blue wall crumbled. They WERE predicting 300-400 electoral votes for her. Quite crazed they were.
People that spew "alternative facts" are crazy enough to think they should be taken seriously. CNN is more factual than the president and some of his supporters.
In a country as large of ours, basing election predictions on the size of crowds at rallies is only slightly more relevant than counting yard signs. It can gauge base enthusiasm but little more.
In a country as large of ours, basing election predictions on the size of crowds at rallies is only slightly more relevant than counting yard signs. It can gauge base enthusiasm but little more.
Agreed.
The vast majority of Americans wouldn't be caught dead at a political rally for either side.
44% favorably and 51% not favorably. And FYI Real Clear Politics is an average of many creditable and some not so creditable polls in my opinion.
Trump's numbers are up. That is the one takeaway from this. Certainly the favorable outcome of Mueller investigation is a big part of that. All the chaos happening in the White House has become the new normal and just background noise for most people.
The democrats should be truly worried and not assume that there is no way Trump will be reelected. That was the attitude that sunk them in 2016. Sitting presidents with a good economy almost always win reelection. Obviously the dynamics surrounding Trump are a bit different but its going to be an uphill battle for the DEMS in 2020.
Then Hitler, Stalin, Chavez and basically every dictator were really, really popular.
You left out Saint Obama. How many of his rallies did you attend?
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CNN is more factual than the president and some of his supporters.
