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What happened to the polls are wrong, 500 people being called on a phone isn't statistically significant nor accurate, no one ever called me, and Trump voters are too busy working to answer questions arguments?
Actually calling 500 random people is statistically valid and accurate. Calling 500 would mean the results are accurate within ±4.4%, 19 times out of 20. In essence if you redid the poll 20 times, 19 times the results would be the same within ± 4.4%.
What happened to the polls are wrong, 500 people being called on a phone isn't statistically significant nor accurate, no one ever called me, and Trump voters are too busy working to answer questions arguments?
"Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."
So it's not statistically flawed, but results depend on who is asked what question. Rasmussen got 48% approve vs 52% disapprove. Gallup's last poll had 39% approve vs 55% disapprove. Rasmussen asks 1500 likely voters, Gallup polls 1500 adults. The Rasmussen numbers always add up to 100%, meaning there were only two choices. Gallup's poll total is missing 6% who apparently had another answer.
But they never called me either, so yeah they are both totally inaccurate.
I don't know what polls are good for at the "same point" in two presidencies. There is no same point, really. Maybe a point in time, but entirely different conditions in each presidency. Not to mention that one presidency is over and the other still has 2 and a half years before running again.
"Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence."
So it's not statistically flawed, but results depend on who is asked what question. Rasmussen got 48% approve vs 52% disapprove. Gallup's last poll had 39% approve vs 55% disapprove. Rasmussen asks 1500 likely voters, Gallup polls 1500 adults. The Rasmussen numbers always add up to 100%, meaning there were only two choices. Gallup's poll total is missing 6% who apparently had another answer.
But they never called me either, so yeah they are both totally inaccurate.
When its based on telephone surveys its VERY flawed.....because in this case Rasmussan ONLY calls land lines. Something primarily owned at this point by older people. This causes a significant swing towards calling Republican voters over Democrats. They additionally use a online survey, but then use a bunch of "weighting" and other tools to get their end results. But they never disclose the details of how they weigh things, and given their history of predictions vs results, there is a huge indicator that their numbers and methodology are extremely flawed, and give extremely Republican skewed results.
Actually calling 500 random people is statistically valid and accurate. Calling 500 would mean the results are accurate within ±4.4%, 19 times out of 20. In essence if you redid the poll 20 times, 19 times the results would be the same within ± 4.4%.
It is based on probability theory.
Signed,
Former Statistician
I should have been more blatantly sarcastic above.
You're absolutely correct. However, I recall posts here where polls not conforming to the individual's beliefs would be dismissed because of not understanding this.
When its based on telephone surveys its VERY flawed.....because in this case Rasmussan ONLY calls land lines. Something primarily owned at this point by older people. This causes a significant swing towards calling Republican voters over Democrats. They additionally use a online survey, but then use a bunch of "weighting" and other tools to get their end results. But they never disclose the details of how they weigh things, and given their history of predictions vs results, there is a huge indicator that their numbers and methodology are extremely flawed, and give extremely Republican skewed results.
How many Millennials do they touch if they are only calling landlines? Probably none at all, despite the fact that Millennials are a huge generation. And Millennials identify as liberal Democrats by a wide margin. This generation is completely missed in Rasmussan's polling.
I only know of two households that still have landlines, and they are both in senior citizen's homes. Which means they are mainly polling old people. Which makes their polling pretty much meaningless.
We should expect poll results like this. In another week Obama will be on top.
If the Dems and their media outlets would stop hyping the trumped up outrages and fake negative news on Trump the country could finally move on.
At the end of Trumps term(s) we will look back just like with every President before him the honest people will say that Trump did some good things and he did some not so good things for the country.
It is as easy as that if people will stop believing the negative hype and can get over their case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
We should expect poll results like this. In another week Obama will be on top.
If the Dems and their media outlets would stop hyping the trumped up outrages and fake negative news on Trump the country could finally move on.
At the end of Trumps term(s) we will look back just like with every President before him the honest people will say that Trump did some good things and he did some not so good things for the country.
It is as easy as that if people will stop believing the negative hype and can get over their case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.
Or you could use actual common sense, and look at a poll that consistently rates Republican higher and realize that it might not be all that valid. Its not derangement syndrome to do this its common sense.
Once you do that, you could maybe realize that its not derangement to say "huh...looks like Trump isnt all that popular in REALITY"
Actually calling 500 random people is statistically valid and accurate. Calling 500 would mean the results are accurate within ±4.4%, 19 times out of 20. In essence if you redid the poll 20 times, 19 times the results would be the same within ± 4.4%.
It is based on probability theory.
Signed,
Former Statistician
Not when all you call are landlines
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