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While yesterday found Democrats clutching their pearls and Trumpers telling us we must believe in polls again after yesterday's surprising Gallup poll, today it is all reversed as, true to form, Trump is down by double digits in two polls out today. Trump's job approval remains in the red and in the range it has since the election.
Trump current RCP = 45.0
Trump September 2018 RCP = 40.1
Trump November 2016 RCP = 43.6
Trump will win the 2020 election by a bigger margin than he won 2016, that is for certain.
not sure how the electoral will shake-out but i'd expect the popular vote to be similar to 2016. as you pointed out, trump took office with a 43.6% approval which has roughly been his average for the past 2 years. with the exception of the government shutdown his approval chart is basically a flat-line compared to other presidencies.
not sure how the electoral will shake-out but i'd expect the popular vote to be similar to 2016. as you pointed out, trump took office with a 43.6% approval which has roughly been his average for the past 2 years. with the exception of the government shutdown his approval chart is basically a flat-line compared to other presidencies.
Democrat states such as New York, California and Illinois have gigantic populations, and because there is so much hatred between left and right at the moment (and since Obama) it makes it impossible for a Republican leader to have a high national approval rating.
Blue states dominate the national approval rating, and that is also why Trump can win by 70 electoral college votes while losing the popular vote.
That's why the national approval rating has become meaningless for predicting an election, other than to say Trump doesn't need a high approval rating to win.
The 49% does look to be an outlier. But the RCP average is currently 45.2. That is at the higher range of his presidency and higher than when he won the electoral college last time.
The 49% does look to be an outlier. But the RCP average is currently 45.2. That is at the higher range of his presidency and higher than when he won the electoral college last time.
For the zillionth time ... There were no presidential approval ratings for Trump before he was elected.
You can't have a presidential approval rating until you are president!
I suspect there are a few factors at work:
1) the economy is pretty good
2) Trump hasn't said anything too overtly racist in a while.
3) Trump hasn't been as bad as the hyperbolic opposition predicted. The trade war hasn't crashed the economy, he hasn't started WW3. Many persuadable voters have likely concluded his bark is worse than his bite.
5) Immigration is an area where Trump has lived up to the democratic sterotype. But Dems have squandered any advantage by associating themselves with unpopular ideas like free healthcare for undocumented people or decriminalizing boarder crossings.
4) People are numb to the Ukraine scandal.
The anticlimactic Muller Report after months of 24/7 Russia coverage gave Trump a get out of jail card.
5) the Dem field looks pretty weak: a socialist gadfly, an unabashed liberal college professor, an often incoherent VP and the mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana.
Probably this. Trump does best when he doesn't do anything as outrageous as normal. I'm not sure how long this calm will last. If he wants to win, he should time his incomprehensible outburts for about early May or so.
I have no doubt that Trump approval is higher than ever before. Turnout in Iowa was about 15.7%. People are just not interested in the Democrats running against him.
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Hurry!
