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Old 04-05-2016, 08:39 PM
 
Location: Houston
5,993 posts, read 3,733,362 times
Reputation: 4160

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Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
You are ignoring the polling.

Although Trump is even trailing to Hillary in red states...Kasich is ahead of Hillary in every swing state and even slightly ahead or within striking distance in some blue states.
The only poll that has any relevancy will be the one taken on November 8th. All others are pure guesswork at this point.
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:43 PM
 
56,988 posts, read 35,193,725 times
Reputation: 18824
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
Kasich beats Hillary in a landslide.

RealClearPolitics - 2016 Latest 2016 Presidential General Election Polls

Wisconsin Kasich +14 over Hillary

Michigan Kasich +5 over Hillary

Ohio Kasich +21 over Hillary

New Hampshire Kasich +10 over Hillary

North Carolina +8 over Hillary

New York Hillary up only by 5
Polls.

Maybe, maybe not. But I doubt it. Kasich is a damn good candidate and he's pretty competent. He'd probably make a decent president.

But nationally, I just don't think he'd beat Hillary. He'd win Ohio, but I can't see him doing damage in the other states you named. After all, he can't even win his party's nomination.
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:46 PM
 
33,387 posts, read 34,837,332 times
Reputation: 20030
everyone keeps saying that there is no way trump can beat hillary, or sanders, and that cruz cant win either, and yet, reagan was polling far behind carter at about this point on the election cycle, and he won, as have a number of other presidents. polls at this point mean virtually nothing.
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Old 04-05-2016, 08:50 PM
 
12,638 posts, read 8,953,334 times
Reputation: 7458
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbohm View Post
everyone keeps saying that there is no way trump can beat hillary, or sanders, and that cruz cant win either, and yet, reagan was polling far behind carter at about this point on the election cycle, and he won, as have a number of other presidents. polls at this point mean virtually nothing.
Deluded liberals think Democrats will win every Presidential election from now until the end of time. Of course, the same people think Obama is a good President, so that tells you how bright try are.
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Niagara Falls ON.
10,016 posts, read 12,577,788 times
Reputation: 9030
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoveToRow View Post
Deluded liberals think Democrats will win every Presidential election from now until the end of time. Of course, the same people think Obama is a good President, so that tells you how bright try are.
It really doesn't matter who wins. There will be no "good presidents" from here going forward. The nation is in decline and the American System is broken. In 20 or 30 years from now the USA could very well resemble the Mexico of today. The 1% are just fine with that as they are everywhere. With seemingly no possible way to reform the system, the country is doomed, just as many empires before it have been doomed because of the inability to change antiquated political systems to meet challenges never even contemplated by the founders of such systems. Political deadlock will destroy the USA. There is no way the country can solve even the smallest of problems because of this governing disfunction. In the thirties FDR saved the country from falling apart and potential revolution with his "new deal". That represented major change to the status quo of the time. Today's conditions are nearly as dire but there is no possibility of a new, "new deal". How far down will the country go before there is a coup or civil disobedience on a massive scale? I tell you, I worry about the future for the USA!
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:24 PM
 
Location: University City, Philadelphia
22,632 posts, read 14,941,676 times
Reputation: 15935
Quote:
Originally Posted by michiganmoon View Post
You are ignoring the polling.

Although Trump is even trailing to Hillary in red states...Kasich is ahead of Hillary in every swing state and even slightly ahead or within striking distance in some blue states.
The election will be in November, not this month. Between now and then anything can happen.

If Kasich is the nominee ... a dumb idea in my opinion because not only will it infuriate the millions of Republicans who supported either Trump (#1 vote getter) or Cruz (#2 vote getter) ... it will make clear to everyone that the GOP primary system is a sham. Do you think those disrespected Republicans are going to peaceably unite in a great circle and sing Kumbaya ???

I personally think that if the GOP establishment wants to ditch Trump (and probably Cruz too) they will pick someone who didn't even run like Paul Ryan.

Let's see what happens!
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:32 PM
 
32,062 posts, read 15,058,461 times
Reputation: 13685
Quote:
Originally Posted by lucknow View Post
It really doesn't matter who wins. There will be no "good presidents" from here going forward. The nation is in decline and the American System is broken. In 20 or 30 years from now the USA could very well resemble the Mexico of today. The 1% are just fine with that as they are everywhere. With seemingly no possible way to reform the system, the country is doomed, just as many empires before it have been doomed because of the inability to change antiquated political systems to meet challenges never even contemplated by the founders of such systems. Political deadlock will destroy the USA. There is no way the country can solve even the smallest of problems because of this governing disfunction. In the thirties FDR saved the country from falling apart and potential revolution with his "new deal". That represented major change to the status quo of the time. Today's conditions are nearly as dire but there is no possibility of a new, "new deal". How far down will the country go before there is a coup or civil disobedience on a massive scale? I tell you, I worry about the future for the USA!
It has nothing to do with good presidents. They can only do so much. The political deadlock is all our fault since we have voted out all the moderates in both parties. Now we are left with extremists on both sides who couldn't find common ground if their life depended on it. How many times have republicans voted to repeal obamacare.....60 or so....enough. What is the point. It's just symbolic. We pay them to actually do something. So we all suffer and will continue to do so until we smarter up and vote these extremists out and get moderates back.
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:40 PM
 
26,494 posts, read 15,070,512 times
Reputation: 14641
Quote:
Originally Posted by lucknow View Post
Yes, I'm ignoring the polling.

2012, his own campaign's polls, among others, predicted Mitt Romney, the Republicans' nominee, would defeat President Barack Obama for the presidency, but just barely. Two years later, surveys in Kentucky strongly suggested then-Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, perhaps the shrewdest, most powerful Republican in Washington, could lose his seat to an upstart rookie Democrat.

Overseas, meanwhile, multiple public-opinion experts in 2014 said Scottish voters were deadlocked on whether to scrap one of the oldest relationships in European history and choose full independence from Great Britain – and underdog nationalists' hopes soared.

Three different public-opinion polls, three important elections, three decisively erroneous results: President Barack Obama blindsided Romney in the 2012 presidential elections, winning a second term by five points; McConnell crushed Alison Lundergan Grimes en route to becoming Senate majority leader in 2014; and Scots last year overwhelmingly chose to keep ties with the United Kingdom, an outcome that stunned the polling establishment.

These are just a few of the recent polling that got it completely incorrect. Here in Canada we have had two provincial governments elected by wide margins that should not have won according to the polls.
Obama won by 3.9% -- Polling wasn't that much off. RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Trump has a record for worst favorability ratings ever for a front runner at this stage in the game. Kasich is the only candidate left with a positive favorability.

Polling is not fool proof...but it is silly to take something like a Senate race in Kentucky with relatively few polls, and Lundgren making big errors late that the polls couldn't pick up (due to timing) and pretend that means that poll after poll showing Hillary annihilating Trump shouldn't be taken seriously, meanwhile poll after poll showing Kasich not just winning, but in a landslide against Hillary is to be poo pooed.
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Old 04-05-2016, 09:57 PM
 
Location: Beautiful Niagara Falls ON.
10,016 posts, read 12,577,788 times
Reputation: 9030
Quote:
Originally Posted by natalie469 View Post
It has nothing to do with good presidents. They can only do so much. The political deadlock is all our fault since we have voted out all the moderates in both parties. Now we are left with extremists on both sides who couldn't find common ground if their life depended on it. How many times have republicans voted to repeal obamacare.....60 or so....enough. What is the point. It's just symbolic. We pay them to actually do something. So we all suffer and will continue to do so until we smarter up and vote these extremists out and get moderates back.
That is actually what I was saying in my post. Obama could have been a good POTUS in another era but not today. The system is broke and it's not getting any better. In fact if anything it's getting worse. Just look at the two top contenders of the moment. Hillary has completely screwed up everything she has ever touched. Just brutal as Secretary of State. She should actually be in jail for breaking the security laws by her truly numbskull email scandal. On the other hand we have Trump. I mean, what can I say? The guy is just right out there in space. Yet the American people have become so jaded and so cynical that they could actually vote for one of these idiots or the other. Neither of them qualified for any public service at all. I think that jadedness comes from a sense of futility with the whole political thing. It's like,"who cares, they are all useless anyway"!!!
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Old 04-05-2016, 10:05 PM
 
32,062 posts, read 15,058,461 times
Reputation: 13685
Quote:
Originally Posted by lucknow View Post
That is actually what I was saying in my post. Obama could have been a good POTUS in another era but not today. The system is broke and it's not getting any better. In fact if anything it's getting worse. Just look at the two top contenders of the moment. Hillary has completely screwed up everything she has ever touched. Just brutal as Secretary of State. She should actually be in jail for breaking the security laws by her truly numbskull email scandal. On the other hand we have Trump. I mean, what can I say? The guy is just right out there in space. Yet the American people have become so jaded and so cynical that they could actually vote for one of these idiots or the other. Neither of them qualified for any public service at all. I think that jadedness comes from a sense of futility with the whole political thing. It's like,"who cares, they are all useless anyway"!!!
I agree, but it starts with who we elect for the senate and congress. They are the ones who have to pretty much compromise for the good of all of us. When there is a federal shutdown which they enacted, they still get paid. It's the middle class workers who suffer
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