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Old 05-23-2016, 09:58 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceist View Post
Where are you getting this notion that there will be cooling?

Quote:


Abrupt Cooling Today – Thermohaline Circulation Shutdown The most likely, and very well studied




abrupt climate change that has happened many times in the past is the shutdown of the Gulf Stream, or the


thermohaline circulation. It can be caused by at least two different mechanisms that probably work


together in most cases. Records show that many of Earth's abrupt climate changes have occurred


simultaneously with a thermohaline circulation shutdown. Great freshwater influx from a melting or


disintegrating ice cap can cause the circulation to be less salty. This “freshening “ of the ocean waters


creates much less dense water than would have otherwise sank to the ocean floor naturally. The less


dense water does not sink and the ocean current slows or stops because the sinking water is the driver, or


the engine that runs the current.





http://www.meltonengineering.com/Global%20Cooling.pdf


Here among other places. Greenland is getting set to put enough fresh water into the north Atlantic to shut down the Thermohaline Circulation.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:06 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
Reputation: 768
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kracer View Post
so for years now the feds have forced the states to fight HCGW by thousands of regulatons and taxes along wih treaties signed by other countries... are you saying all that effort is not going to prevent the sea rise?
Not one bit. Too much lag in the environment. Too much thermal inertia. We are past the tipping point.


So the correct action is now full speed ahead on adding CO2 to raise the global temps even more to stave off the coming ice age.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:08 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
Reputation: 768
Quote:
Originally Posted by evilnewbie View Post
I think it's funny... North Pole was suppose to have melted, the ocean was suppose to have risen five feet, Miami was suppose to underwater, California was suppose to burn to the ground, and now 10 feet sea level rise in 30 plus years... Will any of you remember the BS prediction 30 years from now? I doubt it.... This is how global warming works... You won't remember or will dead before you find out their whole science is BS... Hey I got a brilliant idea, someone should make a website of all the doom that global warming is predicting and see what percent is even close... Oh wait someone did it and it was close to zero... Shoudl I worry about this one? You global warming fanatics make me laugh...
Something to think about, the warning was given to the insurance companies so they can adjust their practices to cover the eventuality that it happens.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:11 AM
 
Location: Long Island
57,227 posts, read 26,172,300 times
Reputation: 15620
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Why would I want to speak to anyone?


Sea levels will rise (or fall) in time, and there is nothing we can do about it. Nations will need to adapt. That doesn't mean I believe in alarmist projections in 45 years time.
You indicated doubt on sea level rise, it is already occurring in Miami.


Adapting is easy when you have a thousand years but when you have a hundred years and dense populations near the coast line it is far from simple.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:11 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
Reputation: 768
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
NOAA can barely get a seasonal forecast prediction right, you think I'm going to trust what they say may happen in 40 or 50 years?


Current sea level rise is about 3mm or less....


[1312.6761] Modeling sea-level change using errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian processes



Yeah I doubt Floridians are going to rush to sell their properties anytime soon.
The change in melt rate is for ice that is already floating. Zero additional sea level contribution from it. But the ice that is melting is the cork in the bottle of Antarctic ice sheet, ice.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:14 AM
 
17,842 posts, read 14,377,437 times
Reputation: 4113
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
http://www.meltonengineering.com/Global%20Cooling.pdf


Here among other places. Greenland is getting set to put enough fresh water into the north Atlantic to shut down the Thermohaline Circulation.
Maybe you need to read it again more carefully. He's not actually saying that global cooling or an ice-age would occur if the Thermohaline Circulation was to shut down. It would only affect regional areas like the North Atlantic while the rest of the planet continued to warm. Also, he is saying that when that occurred in the past, GHG levels were not as high as they are now.
The Day After Tomorrow scenario is Hollywood fiction.

Prof Richard Alley on Abrupt Climate Change (He was the scientist to first do research on the abrupt climate change during the the Younger Dryas):
http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACUL...ate_Change.pdf

Ice sheets and sea level in a warming world - Prof Richard Alley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4oMsfa_30Q

Last edited by Ceist; 05-23-2016 at 10:52 AM..
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:20 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
Reputation: 768
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
It seems odd that all of the predictions by the AGW crowd never seem to come to fruition.

In actual science, a hypothesis is supported and substantiated by data, which has been carefully evaluated by statistical analysis.

I am afraid that far fetched predictions, particularly from an entity that has a poor track record in making accurate predictions, is of no value whatsoever.

Given that actual data does not support AGW, the cult clings to predictions. It is not unlike other cults which forecast the end of the world or other such scenarios.

Let's see............................................... . 9 ft = 108 inches. If we are going to have the scenario predicted, we would have 108 inch rise/ 45 years. So we will expect a rise of over 2 inches per year! That is a MASSIVE change, which should be easily measured. Over ten years (under this prediction), Miami will be under water.So why in the hell have we not seen such dramatic changes of 2 inch per annum rises so far? Is this a phenomenon that just turns on like a light switch?

Wake up. Just another tale from the cult designed to solidify the beliefs of the cult.
Math error, 3 meters = 3,000 / 25.4 = 118 inches. (9 feet is three yards close to three meters, 10 feet is closer to 3 meters)


In my life time the national debt went over $1 trillion and the deficit went over $1 trillion.


Ice loss is on an exponential curve not a linear curve. We are losing the stopper that is hold the ice in place. The loss of that stopper has gone up in speed.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Palo Alto
12,149 posts, read 8,414,093 times
Reputation: 4190
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goodnight View Post
You indicated doubt on sea level rise, it is already occurring in Miami.


Adapting is easy when you have a thousand years but when you have a hundred years and dense populations near the coast line it is far from simple.

I wonder why the federal government continues to spend billions of dollars on infrastructure projects in Florida if they are convinced it's going under.....
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:29 AM
 
3,792 posts, read 2,383,791 times
Reputation: 768
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009 View Post
Agreed-

Anyone can make outrageous predictions. The "climate models" have been consistently wrong over the last two decades.

Since they have been incorrect over the last two decades, are we to dismiss that poor track record and embrace an even bolder, more fantastic prediction?

Keep in mind that the "predicted" rise in sea level from this model is 2 INCHES PER YEAR. This can be easily measured over the next few years. If true, Miami should be nearly under water in 10 years. Does any sane person see this happening? This is akin to cults calling for the end of the world or to taken by a giant space ship to nirvanna. PT Barnum was absolutely correct.
The loss of the Ross ice shelf if it happens will be undeniable and the changes will be abrupt. The increased melting is on floating ice. So zero change in sea level rise rate currently. The rate of rise is expected to go up markedly.


You are correct about the models being wrong, none of them from 15 ~ 20 years ago predicted the rapid acceleration of Jakobshavn or the loss of Larson B ice shelf.
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Old 05-23-2016, 10:32 AM
 
30,058 posts, read 18,652,475 times
Reputation: 20861
Quote:
Originally Posted by ContrarianEcon View Post
Math error, 3 meters = 3,000 / 25.4 = 118 inches. (9 feet is three yards close to three meters, 10 feet is closer to 3 meters)


In my life time the national debt went over $1 trillion and the deficit went over $1 trillion.


Ice loss is on an exponential curve not a linear curve. We are losing the stopper that is hold the ice in place. The loss of that stopper has gone up in speed.

He said 9 ft.

12 inches = 1 foot

9 X 12= 108 inches

It is 2016. In 45 years, we will be at 2061. That is the upper limit of when we are all going to drown, according to the "estimate" (so I am "spotting them" several years).

108/45= 2.4 inches per year. Thanks for the "math lesson".

Of course, a 2.4 inch per year rise in sea level is completely outrageous and absurd for anyone except those in the AGW cult, who are easily fooled.
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