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Old 07-21-2016, 11:58 PM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
15,088 posts, read 13,447,778 times
Reputation: 14266

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The reality is that whether they are located in China or the USA, most of those jobs simply no longer exist due to automation and technology. And renegotiating trade deals isn't going to do much for that. The manufacturing sector of the 1970s and 1980s will never exist again.

This quote encapsulates it well: Why Trump and Clinton vows to bring back manufacturing jobs are a pipe dream - MarketWatch

Quote:
Consider the steel industry. The U.S. employed nearly 800,000 steel workers in 1967 to produce 115 tons of steel, noted professor Scott Summer of the Money Illusion blog. By 2015 only 90,000 people worked in the industry and they produced about 79 million tons of steel.

Even if the U.S. produced the same amount of steel now as it did in the 1960s, that would only involve another 30,000 to 60,000 jobs, Sumner calculates.

“The vast majority of those 780,000 steel jobs were lost to automation, and they aren’t coming back,” he wrote.
More here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...lobal-economy/

And the reality is that in the coming years, technology will eliminate even more of those jobs as well as white collar jobs, and neither Hills nor Trump can do anything about it. Especially with the birth of artificial intelligence soon to come, we are moving further into an era of still less employment, not more.

I really see attempts by both candidates to tell people that they will bring back the jobs of the 1980s as just pandering to stupid people for votes.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:01 AM
 
6,977 posts, read 5,707,016 times
Reputation: 5177
Trump's stance is that he's not going to let people leave in the first place, bringing anything back would be harder, but Trump has promised to make it really hard on companies who leave and who have left.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:03 AM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
15,088 posts, read 13,447,778 times
Reputation: 14266
Quote:
Originally Posted by wall st kid View Post
Trump's stance is that he's not going to let people leave in the first place, bringing anything back would be harder, but Trump has promised to make it really hard on companies who leave and who have left.
Again...the point is that COMPUTERS AND MACHINES ARE NOW DOING MOST OF THOSE JOBS.

You can't "not let them leave" unless you have a time machine or are some sort of a luddite who is going to destroy technological advances.

Trump is just promising you a bunch of nonsense to get your vote.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:04 AM
 
6,977 posts, read 5,707,016 times
Reputation: 5177
Quote:
Originally Posted by ambient View Post
Again, the point is that COMPUTERS ARE NOW DOING MOST OF THOSE JOBS.

You can't "not let them leave" unless you have a time machine or are some sort of a luddite who is going to destroy technological advances.
no doubt, there are just more people and less jobs to be had, but isn't the key that even if big companies leave, they still want to do business in the usa, and trump can make it harder on them to do business in the usa if they do decide to leave.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:07 AM
 
27,134 posts, read 15,310,658 times
Reputation: 12068
Quote:
Originally Posted by ambient View Post
The reality is that whether they are located in China or the USA, most of those jobs simply no longer exist due to automation and technology. And renegotiating trade deals isn't going to do much for that. The manufacturing sector of the 1970s and 1980s will never exist again.

This quote encapsulates it well: Why Trump and Clinton vows to bring back manufacturing jobs are a pipe dream - MarketWatch


Quote:
Consider the steel industry. The U.S. employed nearly 800,000 steel workers in 1967 to produce 115 tons of steel, noted professor Scott Summer of the Money Illusion blog. By 2015 only 90,000 people worked in the industry and they produced about 79 million tons of steel.

Even if the U.S. produced the same amount of steel now as it did in the 1960s, that would only involve another 30,000 to 60,000 jobs, Sumner calculates.

“The vast majority of those 780,000 steel jobs were lost to automation, and they aren’t coming back,†he wrote.
More here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poste...lobal-economy/

And the reality is that in the coming years, technology will eliminate even more of those jobs as well as white collar jobs, and neither Hills nor Trump can do anything about it. Especially with the birth of artificial intelligence soon to come, we are moving further into an era of still less employment, not more.

I really see attempts by both candidates to tell people that they will bring back the jobs of the 1980s as just pandering to stupid people for votes.




What horrible math they used in the example.
79 million tons is certainly more than 115 tons.


Looks like there would have to be layoffs not 30-60k added to match '60s production.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:09 AM
 
Location: Los Awesome, CA
8,653 posts, read 6,131,464 times
Reputation: 3368
Quote:
Originally Posted by wall st kid View Post
Trump's stance is that he's not going to let people leave in the first place, bringing anything back would be harder, but Trump has promised to make it really hard on companies who leave and who have left.
Trump is an idiot and if you believe what this idiot says you have bigger problems than him...
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:10 AM
 
Location: Pacific Northwest
3,836 posts, read 1,784,958 times
Reputation: 5010
You have a point that technology is advancing and will continue to do so, but we've seen just this year Nabisco leaving and Carrier so while you have a point realize that people are still fulfilling those jobs, just over seas now.

Chrysler and other car manufacturing jobs can be brought back. It can happen maybe not on the same level but certainly better than many companies leaving each year. I sure would be supportive of those jobs returning home.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:14 AM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
15,088 posts, read 13,447,778 times
Reputation: 14266
Quote:
Originally Posted by wall st kid View Post
no doubt, there are just more people and less jobs to be had, but isn't the key that even if big companies leave, they still want to do business in the usa, and trump can make it harder on them to do business in the usa if they do decide to leave.
If a machine is now doing the manufacturing job instead of a human, how does it matter where the company operates? You're out of a job either way.
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:16 AM
 
6,977 posts, read 5,707,016 times
Reputation: 5177
Quote:
Originally Posted by SHABAZZ310 View Post
Trump is an idiot and if you believe what this idiot says you have bigger problems than him...
you sound like a hater, there's still time, you don't want to be a hater all your life, right?
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Old 07-22-2016, 12:19 AM
 
Location: Los Awesome, CA
8,653 posts, read 6,131,464 times
Reputation: 3368
Quote:
Originally Posted by wall st kid View Post
you sound like a hater, there's still time, you don't want to be a hater all your life, right?
Hater, nope... Anyone willing to place a vote for Trump should be ashamed of themselves...
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