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Old 08-14-2016, 11:04 AM
 
9,742 posts, read 4,478,808 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PassingComment View Post
You mean ARPANET? Yeah, all taken from individual Americans who innovated the idea, the internet wasn't created because the government sat around thinking of new ideas. The ideas already existed by others to which the government funded. If the government had not funded, the private market would have taken over anyway. In fact, there is a history of clashes between the private market and government when new technology was suppressed and taken over by government institutions.

Government creates nothing, individuals do.
I never said the governments does the actual invention. Just like your family member at Nasa should attest is that a lot is subcontracted to private industry.

The concept of integrated circuitry dates back to 1949. But is was DOD funding to Texas Instruments and Fairchild that led to commercial viability. How come IBM didn't just do it on their own?

And beyond Arpanet the WWW was done by the state funded org called CERN.

The whole point is a lot of R&D would not take place in the private sector because of the short ROI that private sector would require.
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Old 08-14-2016, 01:01 PM
 
Location: Canada
7,668 posts, read 5,477,929 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAMS14 View Post
There will need to be some form of basic income because there will simply be no way for people to earn their daily bread any longer.
What would stop humans from buying robots and putting them to work to provide income or food or clothing or shelter?
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Old 08-14-2016, 01:06 PM
 
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With most everyone bemoaning the lack of honest politicians nowadays, can anyone foresee a time when our chosen leaders will be AI's rather than humans?
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,261,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar View Post
Its been discussed in the economics forums a lot lately here on CD. Some folks are realizing that this time its different then in the past.
Ah, I should stop by there more often. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAMS14 View Post
We have talked about it in this forum a few times, but most people here refuse to acknowledge that in the very near future, there will be no jobs left save for a few very highly skilled ones.

This is one of my favorite videos...
Thanks for the vid. I've actually watched that a few times and enjoy that channel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JAMS14 View Post
There will need to be some form of basic income because there will simply be no way for people to earn their daily bread any longer. And it's at this point where typically you get all of the people who have their heads in the sand who start decrying how they don't want to support all those lazy people who won't work, not understanding that it's not that they won't work, it's that there will be no work. And they will be among those without work. Nearly all of us will.
Exactly. I mean, I'm more or less a believer in free enterprise, free markets, entrepreneurship, competition, hard work, smarter work. But this is so different. Mega-companies like Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Tesla, and IBM are investing huge amounts in building and acquiring AI expertise and assets. The creation of Deep-Learning Narrow AI along with the drive toward Quantum Computing and rudimentary Artificial General Intelligence is a race to basically "win the future."

I don't see how human brains remain relevant when not only can AI do the "intellectual labor" jobs that currently require humans with many years of education and experience, but AI itself can also create the next round of AI and design the future.

The final wave (after mechanical labor and intellectual labor) is emotional labor. My girlfriend is a nurse and a licensed massage therapist, which I consider to both have many elements of emotional labor, and I tell her she'll be supporting us after my intellectual labor job is obviated by AI. But eventually even these roles will be filled by some sort of technology.

For a counterpoint, here's a more optimistic video:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsACeAkvFLY
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:19 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,261,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Enlightenment View Post
Living in Japan, I don't think I've seen a horse in the flesh in more than 10 years.
Totally off-topic, but living in North Texas I see them in a variety of places every day. In fact, we live right next to a farm and frequently feed the donkey and two horses carrots. I pass several horse / donkey / pony ranches on my way into the office, and see horse-riders on the road at least once or twice a week. I also see bison, a camel, a zebra, a whole mess of llamas, tons of ducks and geese, and of course many cows/pigs/goats/sheep. Several residents in our neighborhood raise chickens and we're considering doing the same. Finally, we have two white (leucistic) peac ocks who roam the neighborhood every couple of weeks (one of them has been in our backyard twice).
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,261,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PassingComment View Post
For every job lost by an automation, I can point you to numerous jobs that are created by such.

Here is the problem. If you refuse to improve your knowledge, refuse to adapt, you will become obsolete.

Sorry for the dumb people, you won't be able to sell your service of acting like a dumb animal as technology improves.

Adapt, learn new skills, encourage your children to continue the evolution of learning and guess what? New ideas, new inventions, new opportunities become possible.

But hey.. dat tinking dis tru hurd!!! nah... no dews dat!

The problem with the youth today is that they have been educated by a moronic educational system and their knowledge, aspiration and intellectual skill is that of a dumb animal, so naturally... they act like apes who get skittish about anything new.
I wish I could be this optimistic. I wonder if the key is really human enhancement -- if you can't beat em, join em. That is, as Elon Musk says, we need to essentially become machines or meld with machines to emulate the things about computers that give them such unfathomable advantages over us while preserving the things we do well (creativity) and our own humanity.
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:33 PM
 
3,298 posts, read 2,465,709 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PassingComment View Post
The dumber people get, the more ignorant they get.
That's sig line material there.
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:40 PM
 
1,646 posts, read 2,772,281 times
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So if robots do every job and humans are on a minimum sustainable government wage, who will provide the demand for these robot jobs if no one can afford the service they manufacturer, create, think of? Duhhhh
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Brooklyn, NY
2,348 posts, read 1,897,568 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoodSchoolols View Post
So if robots do every job and humans are on a minimum sustainable government wage, who will provide the demand for these robot jobs if no one can afford the service they manufacturer, create, think of? Duhhhh
The prices of products/services will go down in that instance until an equilibrium is achieved.
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Old 08-14-2016, 04:43 PM
 
Location: Keller, TX
5,658 posts, read 6,261,506 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Dark Enlightenment View Post
This seems an unnecessarily gloomy outlook on your coming golden years.
Maybe. I think the world of 2050 will be a place fairly foreign to the way I was raised. For example, the idea of owning nothing sounds like an interesting progression for civilization... but it also sounds like a sure recipe for cognitive dissonance for me. I'm not saying the world I grew up in or exist in today is better or worse than the world of tomorrow, I'm just saying I'm a product of it and that's where I belong, not in a world where most of it is turned upside-down. I think we need old ideas to die with old people, and I don't want to stand in the way of progress and change. So, for both the sake of society at large and my own neurons (as well as my personal financial situation and desire to die well before the meat robot I'm inside of starts giving up), I think leaving the planet at around 75 (give or take) sounds about right.

I hang out with transhumanist and futurist friends sometimes and they have asked me "don't you want to see how it all turns out?" All the body-sculpting and growing and building body parts, CRISPR manipulation, 3D printing, AI / AGI / Superintelligence, self-driving cars, big data, internet of everything, drones, VR and AR, post-scarcity power, etc. And I say that I'd love to be able to study it all as a historian might, in reverse, but I don't believe I'd like to live through it. And I think things are going to get a whole lot worse before they get better.

I'm an oddball. I still don't own a smartphone, never have (I use a company-provided Blackberry still), don't see a lot of use for one, and hate how tiny smartphone screens and texting and Twitter have dumbed-down conversation and conveyance of complex ideas from what they were in, say, 2002 on the same internet... On the other hand, I was first in line for the HTC Vive virtual reality headset (got it April 6th) and continue to be hugely impressed with where VR is today and where it could go.

Here's a bit from Kevin Kelly's new book that describes a little sliver of what we can expect from the future.

In the future you will own nothing and have access to everything
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