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I think the beginning of the end for the upward momentum for big cities is finally here except for a couple of boutique cities like Boston, New York and Denver that can price themselves out of decline.
Most large cities seem to be on the brink of a decline.
I know that many cities have a short and swift decline from about 1985 to 1990-1993 and I have a feeling based on the trends of late the same thing is happening now.
The income disparities are incredible, the violent crime rate is rising drastically over last couple of years and illicit drug usage and illicit drug deaths are skyrocketing.
The homeless rates in been big cities are through the roof also and people seem to getting more and more desperate then anything else.
Large cities are also going to have to cut back dramatically on the current laughable services they have when all the chickens come home to roost on unfunded pensions.
I can't speak for other cities, but there will be no decline here in Philadelphia. Our "downtown population" is now the second largest in the nation behind Manhattan.
Cities are still popular with Millennials who don't really want the suburban life. And a surprising number of them will stay in the big cities instead of the 'burbs, even after having kids.
And crime rates in MOST big cities have been falling for decades. Even in cities like Baltimore or Chicago where there is a recent uptick in violent crime, there is ongoing development in the prime commercial and residential areas, while the violent crime is largely confined to the worst neighborhoods.
And that homeless thing? Lots of reasons for that in NYC, SF, LA, Portland, etc. But one big reason is that the skid rows and slum areas are shrinking in many cities as they gentrify, leaving the destitute without the flophouses and SROs that were abundant a generation ago. The well-heeled want city space.
And the drug thing is now much more a suburban and rural issue than a city one, what with heroin and pills.
Moreover, there are many cities that are effectively two cities--one part poor and crime-ridden, and the other part middle-class (or richer) and prosperous: Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Buffalo, New York, SF, Atlanta, DC, New Orleans, and on and on.
The only thing that may halt increasing urbanization might be another Great Recession. But right now the economy is percolating along, while unemployment, inflation, gas prices, and interest rates are all low. But short of that, if any city collapses now or in the near future it will be an anomaly -- not an omen.
No, the opposite is true. Population densities are rising in city cores as older industrial and residential lands are taken over by townhomes and high rises. Millennials reject the suburbs, are less car-centric (the % of young drivers is down), love Uber, and bike and public transit commuting is up.
Moreover, there are many cities that are effectively two cities--one part poor and crime-ridden, and the other part middle-class (or richer) and prosperous: Chicago, St. Louis, Cleveland, Buffalo, New York, SF, Atlanta, DC, New Orleans, and on and on.
In St Louis, that is rapidly being pushed into the inner ring suburbs, while the "bad areas" in north city are simply hollowing out completely with few residents left.
I think the swift decline will happen in 50-70 year old suburbs. What had been bustling suburbs in the 50s and 60s are quickly going to become the new slums.
I've been waiting here. The place is a pit and needs to be flushed.
Waiting where? You've been NOWHERE in that city. If anything, you're holed up in a dank room somewhere terrified to walk out your door. You don't even know what side of the city you're on IF you're even in the city.
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