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"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
Well, they have until next Tuesday to COMPLETE that process, if they are actually even going to start it. Which there are currently no actual plans in place to do.
As far as legislation to stop a hard Brexit, that means stopping Brexit, which means revoking Article 50. There is not support for that, not even close.
If they want to continue to support Brexit, then there are two ways to go. Either Brexit with a deal or Brexit without a deal. They have already rejected the only deal in existence, three times. So all that is left is to stop Brexit.
The other thing they could do, if the EU will go along, is vote to participate in the EU elections, with no reason for the delay and then just continue on like that indefinitely. That would not be legislating a formal stop to a hard Brexit, but it would have the same effect. That is why participation in the EU Parliamentary elections is THE issue to watch in the days to come.
If the UK Parliament votes to participate in the May 23-26, 2019 EU Parliamentary elections, then you are staying in the EU. If they fail to do that, then you are leaving. Do you believe your parliament will vote to participate in these elections? This may well be the only question that really needs to be answered at this point to determine how all of this is going to turn out.
Behind the scenes people libe Yvette Cooper and Oliver Letwin are delaying Brexit, and trying to pass legislation to prevent a no-deal scenario, the next stage will be Corbyn who most likely will refuse to cooperate fully with May unless there is a second referendum applied to any withdrawl agreement.
Brexit is starting to slip away, indeed the only credible way left to get the votes needed is a temporary customs union which would have the support of the DUP, ERG and many others in the House, and which would allow us to leave first and then we will have time to negotiate a position in relation to our future relationship and trading arrangements with the EU. It would also allow May to have her Brexit and to stand down, meaning the Tories ould replace her with a Brexiteer for the next part of the negotiations. Brexit: bill to prevent no-deal passes Commons by one vote - The Guardian
That bill does not prevent no deal. How many times have we gone through this? Article 50 was filed with the EU. So a bill passed by the UK Parliament that does not have the force of law with the EU changes nothing. This bill does NOT have the force of law with the EU, even after the Lords pass it and the Queen signs it, both of which are expected to happen soon.
What this bill does is charge Theresa May with going hat in hand to the EU to ask for a further extension. No time limit is specified for the extension request. Parliament will have to address that next week. More on that in a moment. Also, the EU has insisted that the UK needs an acceptable reason for the extension request, which they currently do not have, and that any request beyond May 22 would require the UK to participate in the EU Parliamentary elections, which they have not committed to do.
This bill is truly pathetic. It really is.
As far as the proposed length of the extension request, why was that not included in this bill? Obviously it should have been and it makes no sense to delay discussion of it until literally the day before the EU Emergency Summit next Wednesday, which seems to be the current plan. What on Earth?
The most likely reason that the length of the extension request was not included was that would have killed the bill. In other words, they are not in agreement on that point. Work with me here for a second on this. About half of the UK Parliament (less one vote) want no extension and therefore will presumably not support any date for such an extension. Among the rest, about a quarter want Brexit cancelled and therefore a long delay. The other quarter, roughly speaking, are terrified of the voters and would support a shorter delay.
There is a real chance that this bill turns into a farce when the UK Parliament cannot agree to the length of the extension request, which they must do by next Tuesday. Then Theresa May, who herself does not support an extension beyond May 22, would have no mandate for an extension request of any length, not to mention that she will have no reason for the request and the UK will still not be participating in the EU Parliamentary elections.
The default option is still to leave the EU on April 12, 2019 with no deal. This bill does not by itself do anything that changes that. And when you look at all the obstacles ahead, Brexit with no deal is still by far the most likely outcome here.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,175 posts, read 13,455,286 times
Reputation: 19472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
That bill does not prevent no deal. How many times have we gone through this? Article 50 was filed with the EU. So a bill passed by the UK Parliament that does not have the force of law with the EU changes nothing. This bill does NOT have the force of law with the EU, even after the Lords passes it and the Queen signs it, both of which are expected to happen soon.
What this bill does is charge Theresa May with going hat in hand to the EU to ask for a further extension. No time limit is specified for the extension request. Parliament will have to address that next week. More on that in a moment. Also, the EU has insisted that the UK needs an acceptable reason for the extension request, which they currently do not have, and that any request beyond May 22 would require the UK to participate in the EU Parliamentary elections, which they have not committed to do.
This bill is truly pathetic. It really is.
As far as the proposed length of the extension request, why was that not included in this bill? Obviously it should have been and it makes no sense to delay discussion of it until literally the day before the EU Emergency Summit next Wednesday, which seems to be the current plan. What on Earth?
The most likely reason that the length of the extension request was not included was that would have killed the bill. In other words, they are not in agreement on that point. Work with me here for a second on this. About half of the UK Parliament (less one vote) want no extension and therefore will presumably not support any date for such an extension. Among the rest, about a quarter want Brexit cancelled and therefore a long delay. The other quarter, roughly speaking, are terrified of the voters and would support a shorter delay.
There is a real chance that this bill turns into a farce when the UK Parliament cannot agree to the length of the extension request, which they must do by next Tuesday. Then Theresa May, who herself does not support an extension beyond May 22, would have no mandate for an extension request of any length, not to mention that she will have no reason for the request and the UK will still not be participating in the EU Parliamentary elections.
The default option is still to leave the EU on April 12, 2019 with no deal. This bill does not by itself do anything that changes that. And when you look at all the obstacles ahead, Brexit with no deal is still by far the most likely outcome here.
I agree the Bill is pathetic but this is what is going to happen unles you get some consensus and there could be consesus in relation to a temporary customs union.
Any extension will be used by Parliament to put in place numerous other measures which could include further legislation and there is a real fear of further legislation including preventing a no-deal and even any deal being subject to a 2nd referedum.
The best way to do this is to just leave, and if that means a temporary customs union then so be it, indeed being in a Custms union for 18 months is a small price to pay for getting out of the EU.
I agree the Bill is pathetic but this is what is going to happen unles you get some consensus and there could be consesus in relation to a temporary customs union.
Any extension will be used by Parliament to put in place numerous other measures which could include further legislation and there is a real fear of further legislation including preventing a no-deal and even any deal being subject to a 2nd referedum.
The best way to do this is to just leave, and if that means a temporary customs union then so be it, indeed being in a Custms union for 18 months is a small price to pay for getting out of the EU.
The best way for you guys to 'just leave' is for Theresa May to snarl the Parliament up wasting time on pathetic bills that change nothing in an effort to run out the clock. Then, when she makes her pathetic request to the EU next Wednesday - she knows it is unacceptably pathetic and I believe she is totally fine with that - they note that it is not possible to grant this request, because it is accompanied by literally NONE of the required elements, and then they deny the request.
Then you leave next Friday, April 12, 2019 with no deal.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,175 posts, read 13,455,286 times
Reputation: 19472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
The best way for you guys to 'just leave' is for Theresa May to snarl the Parliament up wasting time on pathetic bills that change nothing in an effort to run out the clock. Then, when she makes her pathetic request to the EU next Wednesday - she knows it is unacceptably pathetic and I believe she is totally fine with that - they note that it is not possible to grant this request, because it is accompanied by literally NONE of the required elements, and then they deny the request.
Then you leave next Friday, April 12, 2019 with no deal.
Eight days to go. Tick tock.
Parliament is going to prevent a no-deal, and Corbyn is going to demand a 2nd Vote.
So the best way to actually leave is now persuading the DUP, ERG and others to back a temporary customs union.
Seeking advice from Corbyn just shows how weak and pathetic Theresa May has become, and the best way forwartd is to get a temporary customs union in place and to leave. Then May can stand down and the Tories can select a Brexiteer to take them out of the customs union and to negotiate on trade and future relations. It's as simple as that, as the whole thing is becoming a mess.
People like Jacob Rees-Mogg and the European Research Group, as well as the DUP would be willing to accept a customs union providing it's only temporary. We could therefore mve on and actually leave, whilst having a new leader and time to negotiate future trade and relations. This is the most sensible option and the only option if Pariament is to retain any dignity at all.
Parliament is going to prevent a no-deal, and Corbyn is going to demand a 2nd Vote.
So the best way to actually leave is now persuading the DUP, ERG and others to back a temporary customs union.
Seeking advice from Corbyn just shows how weak and pathetic Theresa May has become, and the best way forwartd is to get a temporary customs union in place and to leave. Then May can stand down and the Tories can select a Brexiteer to take them out of the customs union and to negotiate on trade and future relations. It's as simple as that, as the whole thing is becoming a mess.
A moment ago you were making the case that the Cooper bill (passed by one vote) somehow prevented no deal. Now that you see that it doesn't do that, I am curious what you believe they will specifically do to stop Brexit with no deal between now and next Tuesday? Here are the options. Please tell me which one they will execute and pass by next Tuesday:
Pass Theresa May's deal (voted down three times)
Pass a motion for a second referendum (voted down twice and this would also require a commitment by Parliament to participate in EU Parliamentary elections)
Revoke Article 50 (voted down once and this is opposed even by Labour)
Pass a motion to participate in the EU Parliamentary election with a view toward kicking the can down the road indefinitely (The EU is not likely to support this. The UK needs to commit to being part of the EU, if that is what it wants to do)
So, which one of these is the UK Parliament going to pass by next Tuesday to stop a no deal Brexit? Which one?
As far as a customs union, as we have discussed, this would be something to be negotiated after the UK leaves the EU. This option in a theoretical form has already been voted down twice in indicative votes and there are not going to be any more of those. An actual customs union agreement would take months to negotiate and it will not be started by next week, much less finished.
Also, if a customs union were to be negotiated, it would need to be permanent, not temporary, for the EU to be willing to agree to it.
Last edited by Spartacus713; 04-04-2019 at 09:31 AM..
As expected, the talks between Theresa May and Jeremy were just pointless political posturing and have apparently gone literally nowhere. So for all of those people who were in full meltdown mode over the very idea of these two sitting in the same room together, it was much ado about nothing.
The PM enraged Tory Brexiteers by inviting the Labour leader into her Commons office yesterday afternoon in a bid to thrash out a compromise plan that a majority of MPs could pass. The duo have just four days to come up with a softer Brexit agreeement, in a breakneck timetable ahead of an emergency EU summit next week. Both sides said the talks were “constructive”, and set up negotiating teams for technical talks all day today.
But Mr Corbyn revealed afterwards that no progress had been made in bridging the jumbo gap between them, and neither would reveal their red lines to each other. The Labour leader said: “There hasn’t been as much change as I expected.
“There was no deal offered. There was no deal offered by us either. We just discussed where we are at. She reiterated where she is at at the present time. So red lines in the future didn’t come up.”
Every English and Welsh region outside the M25 is happy to leave the European Union without a deal if no agreement can be reached by the end of next week. The study by YouGov asked voters “if Britain has not agreed a deal by April 12th, what do you think should happen?”. The research found that only people living in London did not want to leave without a deal.
In London 48 per cent of voters agreed that “Britain should withdraw our application to leave and remain in the EU” against 26pc who backed leaving without a deal. The picture was reversed outside London however. In the rest of the South of England 44pc were in favour of no-deal against 34pc who wanted to revoke the decision to leave. In the Midlands and Wales the proportion in favour of no-deal was 46pc – 31pc, and 41pc – 34pc in the North of England.
The proportions mirrored London in Scotland with just 28pc in favour of no-deal against 47pc who wanted to stay in the EU.
Status:
"“If a thing loves, it is infinite.”"
(set 2 days ago)
Location: Great Britain
27,175 posts, read 13,455,286 times
Reputation: 19472
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spartacus713
A moment ago you were making the case that the Cooper bill (passed by one vote) somehow prevented no deal. Now that you see that it doesn't do that, I am curious what you believe they will specifically do to stop Brexit with no deal between now and next Tuesday? Here are the options. Please tell me which one they will execute and pass by next Tuesday:
[/qiote]
No I didn't, the nest stage is a long extension to actually leaving if Cooper and Letwin get there way
Pass Theresa May's deal (voted down three times)
Pass a motion for a second referendum (voted down twice and this would also require a commitment by Parliament to participate in EU Parliamentary elections)
Revoke Article 50 (voted down once and this is opposed even by Labour)
Pass a motion to participate in the EU Parliamentary election with a view toward kicking the can down the road indefinitely (The EU is not likely to support this. The UK needs to commit to being part of the EU, if that is what it wants to do)
So, which one of these is the UK Parliament going to pass by next Tuesday to stop a no deal Brexit? Which one?
As far as a customs union, as we have discussed, this would be something to be negotiated after the UK leaves the EU. This option in a theoretical form has already been voted down twice in indicative votes and there are not going to be any more of those. An actual customs union agreement would take months to negotiate and it will not be started by next week, much less finished.
Also, if a customs union were to be negotiated, it would need to be permanent, not temporary, for the EU to be willing to agree to it.
The draft legislation, which has just passed the House of Lords, will force the prime minister to ask the EU for an extension to the Article 50 process beyond 12 April and would give Parliament the power to decide the length of this delay.
Theresa May won't have any power in terms of sanctioning a leave date or indeed in terms of leaving full stop that will be down to the EU and Parliament, meaning we can't leave if Parliament and the EU overrule Theresa May, the only way to leave would be for Parliament to come up with a majority in terms of a bill or in relation to a hard Brexitm and the most likely bill to get through is Theres May's withdrawl part of her agreement with a temporary customs union attatched.
Parliament may also now seek further laws, and could try to pass a 2nd referedum bill or all kinds of other nonsense.
The EU wil most certainly allow Britain a long entension if a second vote is on the table.
Don't you see what's happening.
For a Bill to pass in 24 hours is bad enough, but it also makes Brexit a lot less likely.
In terms of a Temporary Customs Union it would have widespread support in the Tory ranks, and could avoid the mess that people like Letwin and Cooper could cause.
Last edited by Brave New World; 04-04-2019 at 10:41 AM..
IMO, from a legal perspective, Article 50 has already been canceled. The date came and went and the UK is in the EU. So it no longer has any legal meaning. Parliament just doesn't have to admit to it and shown that it has no problem rushing through laws to cement this position. Legally it's apparently possible to have for Parliament to vote in a permanent extension and then keep saying there's a BRexit. Of course when there isn't. It's done.
Really the only thing in play now is May's government. How long does it last before infuriated BRexiters in her own party collapse the government?
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