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I thought any extension beyond May 12th was based on either passing the deal or holding the election.
Is the current thought that the EU election will be announced on the day that Brexit is scheduled to occur?
It was until it didn't happen.
The EU doesn't stand for anything. They have reversed themselves yet again. Article 50 is now meaningless.
And now May flies to Paris to bet Macron for more. The UK could have been out of the EU by now had it not been for May and the idiots in Parliament who are doing everything they can to cancel BRexit.
So, the talk in the ever hysterical British press over the last few days has been about Theresa May invoking the "C" word (Compromise) and how the most likely outcome of the talks between her and Jermey Corbyn is likely to be a customs union.
Several Tory ministers have joined in, pushing back and making what appear to be intentionally provocative predictions that a "Customs union" (No Brexit) is what is likely to be the outcome of these "compromise" negotiations with Jeremy Corbyn and Labour. Here are a couple of links:
Of course I could turn out to be wrong about this, but it appears to me that these Tory ministers are now mobilizing their own "Operation fear" and using the press to change the narrative to one of fear of betrayal and treachery, and the loss of not only Brexit, but also the credibility of the UK's democracy.
These claims are certainly something to be concerned about and I am glad that these Tory ministers and others are raising them, if for no other reason to counteract the ridiculous scare campaign that has been mounted against the prospect of leaving the EU with no deal. At the same time, it appears to me that these are very likely "Straw man" arguments against threats that probably are not real. Barack Obama used to do this all the time when he spoke, diverting attack away from what he was doing against some sort of made-up enemy and then attribute that to his adversaries.
In fact, Theresa May has been consistently against any formal customs union with the EU, and has repeated that within the last week. Also, all reports are that the talks are going nowhere, supposedly because of Theresa May's intransigence, but in fact because both sides have their heels dug in. In fact, there are not even any further talks scheduled for today, although both sides have indicated that they hope that will change.
Meanwhile, the Lords still has not finished voting on the extension bill - with no date specified in it - and the date is supposed to be debated and passed tomorrow in the House of Commons. Do they have support for a date beyond the June 30, 2019 date that Theresa May has requested? It does not appear so to me. And if they don't then there will be no authorization to participate in the May 23, 2019 EU Parliamentary elections, without which the UK cannot and will not remain in the EU past the end of June.
Anyway, this appears to be a coordinated P.R. battle to change the narrative away from making "No deal" the enemy, towards making "No Brexit" the enemy. What is interesting is that Theresa May is apparently pleased to sacrifice herself here, as she knows she is out soon anyway.
This is fascinating stuff. If she proposes a customs union with Jeremy Corbyn as a "Compromise," then that will mean I have gotten it wrong. Stay tuned.
According to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, in a no-deal Brexit, the EU would not be discussing any future trade relationship until it got assurances on the Irish border, citizens' rights, and the financial settlement.
Which are, of course, the three main issues in May's deal.
According to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, in a no-deal Brexit, the EU would not be discussing any future trade relationship until it got assurances on the Irish border, citizens' rights, and the financial settlement.
Which are, of course, the three main issues in May's deal.
WTO rules would be the default.
Yeah, the EU has made it clear that they are the rammers, and the UK are the rammees. If the UK has any sense, this announcement will just further reinforce the desirability of finalizing their divorce from these arrogant a-holes.
So the Prime Minister has just finished meeting with the 1922 group of her own backbenchers, one of whom had earlier suggested that he wanted to call for a vote of no confidence. After this meeting, he has apparently changed his mind and they have no intention on pushing this matter any further.
Also when asked about a deal with Labour, Sir Graham Brady stated "There is, at the moment, no deal with Labour."
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, spoke to ITV as he was leaving Downing Street after a meeting between the committee’s executive and the prime minister. He wasn’t excessively forthcoming, but he said he and his colleagues had had an update on the talks with Labour. When he was asked about the “deal” with Labour, he replied:
Yeah, the EU has made it clear that they are the rammers, and the UK are the rammees. If the UK has any sense, this announcement will just further reinforce the desirability of finalizing their divorce from these arrogant a-holes.
It's a negotiation, in a negotiation you use your bargaining power to get what you want to the best of your ability, the EU was never going to just give up what it wants to the side with the weaker bargaining position just because. Why would it do that? Negotiations don't work that way.
According to Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, in a no-deal Brexit, the EU would not be discussing any future trade relationship until it got assurances on the Irish border, citizens' rights, and the financial settlement.
Which are, of course, the three main issues in May's deal.
WTO rules would be the default.
So in other words;
Need a fix for the Irish border which would otherwise break the GFA.
Confirm EU citizens rights which is already agreed not formalised.
Pay the divorce bill which aside from already being agreed would be dwarfed by the hit to the economy by going WTO.
Yeah, £39bn is around 2% of GDP, we've already lost more than that directly from falling GDP growth since the referendum and that will only get compounded over time.
The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has released a more detailed statement on this evening’s Brexit talks with the government, in which he reiterates that Labour wants to see the prime minister adopt its five key points in order to reach a cross-party deal:
"Today, I held a meeting of our shadow cabinet to discuss the Brexit talks with the government. The exchanges with the government have been serious but our shadow cabinet expressed frustration that the prime minister has not yet moved off her red lines so we can reach a compromise.
The key issues that we must see real movement on to secure an agreement are a customs union with the EU, alignment with the single market and full dynamic alignment of workers’ rights, environmental protections and consumer standards."
But the 'Fake news' press has been pushing the narrative that Theresa May has capitulated to Jeremy Corbyn and that a customs union is the only solution. Of course as Remainers, that is what they want, but that does not make it so.
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